IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/waterr/v38y2024i10d10.1007_s11269-024-03843-7.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Assessment of Climate Change-Induced Water Scarcity Risk by Using a Coupled System Dynamics and Bayesian Network Modeling Approaches

Author

Listed:
  • Sara Dehghani

    (University of Tehran)

  • Alireza Massah Bavani

    (University of Tehran)

  • Abbas Roozbahani

    (Norwegian University of Life Sciences (NMBU))

  • Oz Sahin

    (Griffith University)

Abstract

The water scarcity risk induced by climate change is contributing to a sequence of hydrological and socioeconomic impacts. Certain numbers of related impacts are locked in already and are expected to be much greater in the future. So, there is still a lack of understanding of its dynamics, origin, propagation, and the mutual interaction of its drivers. In recent years, several model-based approaches have been introduced to tackle the complexity, dynamics, and uncertainty of water scarcity specifically. However, the coupled modeling while addressing different aspects of the risk of water scarcity under the climate change scenarios has been rarely done. For bridging this gap, in this research, the combination of complementary System Dynamics modeling and Bayesian Network was applied to Qazvin Plain in Iran with five AOGCM models under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios (126 and 585). Key findings of this research show: 1) Baseline risk assessment indicates a low probability of water scarcity; however, in the future 30-year time horizon with continuous change in hazard, vulnerability, and exposure for SSP126, the risk fell in the extreme category with an average probability of 41%. Under SSP585, the risk varies between extreme and high categories with an average probability of 47%. 2) Economic development, particularly regional gross domestic product (RGDP) in 2045–2054 in SSP585 can diminish the negative projected consequences of climate change and therefore investments in adaptation policies could offset negative consequences, highlighting the role of economic growth in climate resilience. 3) It is projected that crop yield and income will receive the largest negative effects due to cutting back the agriculture area. 4) Considering the interplay of climate change, economic development, and water extraction policies is essential for the design, operation, and management of water-related activities. The proposed integrated methodology provides a comprehensive framework for understanding climate change-induced water scarcity risks, their drivers, and potential consequences. This approach facilitates adaptive decision-making to address the evolving challenges posed by climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Sara Dehghani & Alireza Massah Bavani & Abbas Roozbahani & Oz Sahin, 2024. "Assessment of Climate Change-Induced Water Scarcity Risk by Using a Coupled System Dynamics and Bayesian Network Modeling Approaches," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 38(10), pages 3853-3874, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:38:y:2024:i:10:d:10.1007_s11269-024-03843-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-024-03843-7
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11269-024-03843-7
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11269-024-03843-7?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Erwin WAUTERS & Frankwin van WINSEN & Yann de MEY & Ludwig LAUWERS, 2014. "Risk perception, attitudes towards risk and risk management: evidence and implications," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 60(9), pages 389-405.
    2. Komarek, Adam M. & De Pinto, Alessandro & Smith, Vincent H., 2020. "A review of types of risks in agriculture: What we know and what we need to know," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    3. Flannery Dolan & Jonathan Lamontagne & Robert Link & Mohamad Hejazi & Patrick Reed & Jae Edmonds, 2021. "Evaluating the economic impact of water scarcity in a changing world," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-10, December.
    4. Djanibekov, Utkur & Finger, Robert, 2018. "Agricultural risks and farm land consolidation process in transition countries: The case of cotton production in Uzbekistan," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 223-235.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Blazquez-Soriano, Amparo & Ramos-Sandoval, Rosmery, 2022. "Information transfer as a tool to improve the resilience of farmers against the effects of climate change: The case of the Peruvian National Agrarian Innovation System," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    2. Daniele, Bertolozzi-Caredio & Barbara, Soriano & Isabel, Bardaji & Alberto, Garrido, 2022. "Analysis of perceived robustness, adaptability and transformability of Spanish extensive livestock farms under alternative challenging scenarios," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    3. Lotte Yanore & Jaap Sok & Alfons Oude Lansink, 2024. "Do Dutch farmers invest in expansion despite increased policy uncertainty? A participatory Bayesian network approach," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(1), pages 93-115, January.
    4. Li, Shangge & Jian, Jinfeng & Poopal, Rama Krishnan & Chen, Xinyu & He, Yaqi & Xu, Hongbin & Yu, Huimin & Ren, Zongming, 2022. "Mathematical modeling in behavior responses: The tendency-prediction based on a persistence model on real-time data," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 464(C).
    5. Omid Bozorg-Haddad & Mahdi Bahrami & Ayda Gholami & Xuefeng Chu & Hugo A. Loáiciga, 2024. "Investigation and classification of water resources management strategies: possible threats and solutions," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 120(11), pages 9867-9892, September.
    6. El Ansari, Loubna & Chenoune, Roza & Yigezu, Yigezu A. & Komarek, Adam M. & Gary, Christian & Belhouchette, Hatem, 2023. "Intensification options in cereal-legume production systems generate trade-offs between sustainability pillars for farm households in northern Morocco," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    7. Thomas Slijper & Yann de Mey & P Marijn Poortvliet & Miranda P M Meuwissen, 2022. "Quantifying the resilience of European farms using FADN," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 49(1), pages 121-150.
    8. A. L. Hamilton & P. M. Reed & R. S. Gupta & H. B. Zeff & G. W. Characklis, 2024. "Resilient water infrastructure partnerships in institutionally complex systems face challenging supply and financial risk tradeoffs," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-15, December.
    9. Sagarika Dey & Amrita Nath, 2024. "Welfare shocks, coping strategies and safety nets: a study on rural households of Cachar District, Assam," Journal of Social and Economic Development, Springer;Institute for Social and Economic Change, vol. 26(3), pages 907-930, December.
    10. Elia Moretti & Michael Benzaquen, 2024. "Mitigating Farmland Biodiversity Loss: A Bio-Economic Model of Land Consolidation and Pesticide Use," Papers 2407.19749, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2025.
    11. Oladele, Oladimeji Idowu & Nthama, Nthapeliseng, 2024. "Effects of Information Providers, Channels and Types on the Adoption of Climate – Resilient Practices in Lesotho," Problems of World Agriculture / Problemy Rolnictwa Światowego, Warsaw University of Life Sciences, vol. 24(3), September.
    12. Lotte Yanore & Jaap Sok & Alfons Oude Lansink, 2023. "Anticipate, wait or don't invest? The strategic net present value approach to study expansion decisions under policy uncertainty," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(2), pages 535-548, March.
    13. Juan Carlos Pérez-Mesa & Francisco Javier Pérez-Mesa & Juan José Tapia-León & Diego Luis Valera, 2022. "Scheduling vegetable sales to supermarkets in Europe: The tomato case," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 68(11), pages 403-412.
    14. Fulop Arpad-Zoltan & Fulop Kinga-Erzsebet, 2023. "Perspectives Of The Circular Economy For Water And Sewage Operators In Romania," Annals - Economy Series, Constantin Brancusi University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 6, pages 125-129, December.
    15. Giampietri, Elisa & Yu, Xiaohua & Trestini, Samuele, 2020. "The role of trust and perceived barriers on farmer’s intention to adopt risk management tools," Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), vol. 9(01), April.
    16. Turner, Dylan & Tsiboe, Francis & Baldwin, Katherine L. & Dong, Fengxia, 2024. "The Role of Policy Uncertainty in Producer Risk Management Decisions," 2024 Annual Meeting, July 28-30, New Orleans, LA 343841, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    17. Huet, E.K. & Adam, M. & Giller, K.E. & Descheemaeker, K., 2020. "Diversity in perception and management of farming risks in southern Mali," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    18. Emily Terese Sturm & Colton Castro & Andrea Mendez-Colmenares & John Duffy & Agnieszka (Aga) Z. Burzynska & Lorann Stallones & Michael L. Thomas, 2022. "Risk Factors for Brain Health in Agricultural Work: A Systematic Review," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(6), pages 1-26, March.
    19. Jing Zhu & Siqi Ma & Qianyu Zhou, 2022. "Industrial Revitalization of Rural Villages via Comprehensive Land Consolidation: Case Studies in Gansu, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-22, August.
    20. Matchaya, Greenwell C. & Tadesse, Getaw & Kuteya, Auckland N., 2022. "Rainfall shocks and crop productivity in Zambia: Implication for agricultural water risk management," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 269(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:38:y:2024:i:10:d:10.1007_s11269-024-03843-7. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.