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A Scenario-Based Management of Water Resources and Supply Systems Using a Combined System Dynamics and Compromise Programming Approach

Author

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  • Marzieh Momeni

    (University of Tehran
    University of Tehran)

  • Kourosh Behzadian

    (University of West London)

  • Hossein Yousefi

    (University of Tehran)

  • Sina Zahedi

    (University of Tehran)

Abstract

Long-term sustainability in water supply systems is a major challenge due to water resources depletion, climate change and population growth. This paper presents a scenario-based approach for performance assessment of intervention strategies in water resources and supply systems (WRSS). A system dynamics approach is used for modelling the key WRSS components and their complex interactions with natural and human systems and is combined with a multi-criteria decision analysis for sustainability performance assessment of strategies in each scenario. The scenarios combine population growth rates with groundwater extraction limits against two types of intervention strategies. The methodology was demonstrated on a real-world case study in Iran. Results show scenario-based analysis can provide suitable strategies leading to long-term sustainability of water resources for each scenario externally imposed on the water systems. For scenarios with either no threshold or one threshold of groundwater extraction limit, the only effective strategies for sustainable groundwater preservation are those involving agricultural water demand decrease with an average recovery rate of 130% for groundwater resources while other strategies of agricultural groundwater abstraction (constant/increase rates) fail to sustainably recover groundwater resources. However, all analysed strategies can provide sustainability of water resources with an average recovery rate of 33% for groundwater resources only when scenarios with two threshold limits are in place. The impact of scenarios with population growth rates on groundwater conservation is quite minor with an average recovery rate of 11% compared to scenarios of groundwater extraction limits with an average recovery rate of 79% between no threshold and two threshold limits.

Suggested Citation

  • Marzieh Momeni & Kourosh Behzadian & Hossein Yousefi & Sina Zahedi, 2021. "A Scenario-Based Management of Water Resources and Supply Systems Using a Combined System Dynamics and Compromise Programming Approach," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(12), pages 4233-4250, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:35:y:2021:i:12:d:10.1007_s11269-021-02942-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-021-02942-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Qianjin Dong & Xu Zhang & Yalin Chen & Debin Fang, 2019. "Dynamic Management of a Water Resources-Socioeconomic-Environmental System Based on Feedbacks Using System Dynamics," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(6), pages 2093-2108, April.
    2. Huy V. Vo & Bongsug Chae & David L. Olson, 2002. "Dynamic Mcdm: The Case Of Urban Infrastructure Decision Making," International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making (IJITDM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 1(02), pages 269-292.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ajay Singh, 2022. "Better Water and Land Allocation for Long-term Agricultural Sustainability," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(10), pages 3505-3522, August.
    2. Ravi Gorripati & Mainak Thakur & Nagesh Kolagani, 2023. "Promoting Climate Resilient Sustainable Agriculture Through Participatory System Dynamics with Crop-Water-Income Dynamics," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(10), pages 3935-3951, August.
    3. Miloš Milašinović & Damjan Ivetić & Milan Stojković & Dragan Savić, 2023. "Failure Conditions Assessment of Complex Water Systems Using Fuzzy Logic," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(3), pages 1153-1182, February.

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