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An Ensemble Meta-Modelling Approach Using the Dempster-Shafer Theory of Evidence for Developing Saltwater Intrusion Management Strategies in Coastal Aquifers

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  • Dilip Kumar Roy

    (James Cook University)

  • Bithin Datta

    (James Cook University
    University of New Castle)

Abstract

The optimum abstraction policy of coastal groundwater resources is prescribed by solving a meta-model based saltwater intrusion management model. Groundwater parameter uncertainties are explicitly incorporated into the developed meta-models in order to address the uncertainties present in coastal aquifer processes. Nevertheless, the accuracy and consequent reliability of such a management model depends upon the right choice of meta-models or a combination of meta-models. The optimal combination of meta-models, also referred to as an ensemble meta-model, can be selected by applying the Dempster-Shafer (D-S) theory of evidence. D-S evidence theory provides a platform upon which to base the selection of the best meta-model or combination of meta-models to formulate the preferred ensemble. This study demonstrates the application of D-S theory to provide an ensemble of meta-models for developing saltwater intrusion management models in coastal aquifers. The prediction accuracy of the developed ensemble meta-model is compared with that of the best standalone meta-model in the ensemble. The results confirm that the ensemble meta-model performs equally well when compared with the best meta-model in the ensemble. The developed meta-models and their ensemble are then used to develop computationally feasible multiple objective saltwater intrusion management models by utilizing an integrated simulation-optimization approach. The solution results of the management models demonstrate the superiority of the ensemble meta-model approach over standalone meta-models in obtaining Pareto optimal groundwater abstraction patterns. The evaluation of the proposed methodology is demonstrated using an illustrative multilayer coastal aquifer system subjected to groundwater parameter uncertainties.

Suggested Citation

  • Dilip Kumar Roy & Bithin Datta, 2019. "An Ensemble Meta-Modelling Approach Using the Dempster-Shafer Theory of Evidence for Developing Saltwater Intrusion Management Strategies in Coastal Aquifers," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(2), pages 775-795, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:33:y:2019:i:2:d:10.1007_s11269-018-2142-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-018-2142-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Rajib Bhattacharjya & Bithin Datta, 2005. "Optimal Management of Coastal Aquifers Using Linked Simulation Optimization Approach," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 19(3), pages 295-320, June.
    2. Datta, Bithin & Peralta, Richard C., 1986. "Interactive computer graphics-based multiobjective decision-making for regional groundwater management," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 91-116, April.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Ahmad Jafarzadeh & Abbas Khashei-Siuki & Mohsen Pourreza-Bilondi, 2022. "Performance Assessment of Model Averaging Techniques to Reduce Structural Uncertainty of Groundwater Modeling," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(1), pages 353-377, January.
    3. Yu, Xiayang & Sreekanth, J. & Cui, Tao & Pickett, Trevor & Xin, Pei, 2021. "Adaptative DNN emulator-enabled multi-objective optimization to manage aquifer−sea flux interactions in a regional coastal aquifer," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 245(C).
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