IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/waterr/v33y2019i10d10.1007_s11269-019-02318-4.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Uncertainty Analysis on Hybrid Double Feedforward Neural Network Model for Sediment Load Estimation with LUBE Method

Author

Listed:
  • Xiao-Yun Chen

    (Hong Kong Polytechnic University)

  • Kwok-Wing Chau

    (Hong Kong Polytechnic University)

Abstract

The assessment of uncertainty prediction has become a necessity for most modeling studies within the hydrology community. This paper addresses uncertainty analysis on a novel hybrid double feedforward neural network (HDFNN) model for generating the sediment load prediction interval (PI). By using the Lower Upper Bound Estimation (LUBE) method, the lower and upper bounds are directly generated as outputs of neural network based models. Coverage Width-based Criterion (CWC) is employed as an objective function for searching high quality PIs. The LUBE-based model is then applied to estimate sediment loads of Muddy Creek in Montana of USA. Results demonstrate the suitability of HDFNN-LUBE model in producing PI in both 90% and 95% confidence levels (CL). It is capable of generating appropriate lower bounds of PIs with narrow intervals. Partitioning analysis reveals consistently excellent performances of HDFNN model in constructing PI in terms of low, medium and high loads. These results therefore verify the reliability and potentiality of the HDFNN model for sediment load estimation with uncertainty. LUBE shows its efficiency in uncertainty prediction as well, which could be used to quantify total uncertainty of data-driven models.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiao-Yun Chen & Kwok-Wing Chau, 2019. "Uncertainty Analysis on Hybrid Double Feedforward Neural Network Model for Sediment Load Estimation with LUBE Method," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(10), pages 3563-3577, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:33:y:2019:i:10:d:10.1007_s11269-019-02318-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-019-02318-4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11269-019-02318-4
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11269-019-02318-4?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chuntian, Cheng & Chau, K. W., 2002. "Three-person multi-objective conflict decision in reservoir flood control," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 142(3), pages 625-631, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tao, Yuan & Li, Na & Wang, Shaoli & Chen, Haorui & Guan, Xiaoyan & Ji, Mengzhe, 2021. "Simulation study on performance of nitrogen loss of an improved subsurface drainage system for one-time drainage using HYDRUS-2D," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 246(C).
    2. Vahid Nourani & Nardin Jabbarian Paknezhad & Hitoshi Tanaka, 2021. "Prediction Interval Estimation Methods for Artificial Neural Network (ANN)-Based Modeling of the Hydro-Climatic Processes, a Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-18, February.
    3. Amir Molajou & Vahid Nourani & Ali Davanlou Tajbakhsh & Hossein Akbari Variani & Mina Khosravi, 2024. "Multi-Step-Ahead Rainfall-Runoff Modeling: Decision Tree-Based Clustering for Hybrid Wavelet Neural- Networks Modeling," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 38(13), pages 5195-5214, October.
    4. Wang, Huan & Liao, Shengli & Liu, Benxi & Zhao, Hongye & Ma, Xiangyu & Zhou, Binbin, 2024. "Long-term complementary scheduling model of hydro-wind-solar under extreme drought weather conditions using an improved time-varying hedging rule," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 305(C).
    5. Rafael González-Val, 2021. "The Probability Distribution of Worldwide Forest Areas," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-19, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Benyou Jia & Slobodan P. Simonovic & Pingan Zhong & Zhongbo Yu, 2016. "A Multi-Objective Best Compromise Decision Model for Real-Time Flood Mitigation Operations of Multi-Reservoir System," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(10), pages 3363-3387, August.
    2. Mónica de Castro-Pardo & Pascual Fernández Martínez & Amelia Pérez Zabaleta & João C. Azevedo, 2021. "Dealing with Water Conflicts: A Comprehensive Review of MCDM Approaches to Manage Freshwater Ecosystem Services," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-32, April.
    3. X. Wang & R. Zhao & Y. Hao, 2011. "Flood Control Operations Based on the Theory of Variable Fuzzy Sets," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(3), pages 777-792, February.
    4. Chi Zhang & Guoli Wang & Yong Peng & Guolei Tang & Guohua Liang, 2012. "A Negotiation-Based Multi-Objective, Multi-Party Decision-Making Model for Inter-Basin Water Transfer Scheme Optimization," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(14), pages 4029-4038, November.
    5. Lihua Chen & Jing Yu & Jin Teng & Hang Chen & Xiang Teng & Xuefang Li, 2022. "Optimizing Joint Flood Control Operating Charts for Multi–reservoir System Based on Multi–group Piecewise Linear Function," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(9), pages 3305-3325, July.
    6. Onur Hınçal & A. Altan-Sakarya & A. Metin Ger, 2011. "Optimization of Multireservoir Systems by Genetic Algorithm," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(5), pages 1465-1487, March.
    7. Lu, Shibao & Sun, Huaping & Sun, Dongying & Guo, Min & Bai, Xiao, 2020. "Assessment on reservoir flood resources utilization of Ankang Reservoir, China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    8. Stefan Hajkowicz & Kerry Collins, 2007. "A Review of Multiple Criteria Analysis for Water Resource Planning and Management," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 21(9), pages 1553-1566, September.
    9. Cai, Y.P. & Huang, G.H. & Tan, Q. & Chen, B., 2011. "Identification of optimal strategies for improving eco-resilience to floods in ecologically vulnerable regions of a wetland," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(2), pages 360-369.
    10. George Panagopoulos & George Bathrellos & Hariklia Skilodimou & Faini Martsouka, 2012. "Mapping Urban Water Demands Using Multi-Criteria Analysis and GIS," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(5), pages 1347-1363, March.
    11. Bin Liu & Feilian Zhang & Wuyi Wan & Xiaowei Luo, 2019. "Multi-objective Decision-Making for the Ecological Operation of Built Reservoirs Based on the Improved Comprehensive Fuzzy Evaluation Method," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(11), pages 3949-3964, September.
    12. Yang Li & Yaochen Qin, 2019. "The Response of Net Primary Production to Climate Change: A Case Study in the 400 mm Annual Precipitation Fluctuation Zone in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(9), pages 1-18, April.
    13. Joanna Wicher-Dysarz & Ewelina Szałkiewicz & Joanna Jaskuła & Tomasz Dysarz & Maksymilian Rybacki, 2020. "Possibilities of Controlling the River Outlets by Weirs on the Example of Noteć Bystra River," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-20, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:33:y:2019:i:10:d:10.1007_s11269-019-02318-4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.