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Season Algorithm-Multigene Genetic Programming: A New Approach for Rainfall-Runoff Modelling

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  • Ali Danandeh Mehr

    (Antalya Bilim University
    University of Tabriz)

  • Vahid Nourani

    (University of Tabriz
    Near East University)

Abstract

Genetic programming (GP) is recognized as a robust machine learning method for rainfall-runoff modelling. However, it may produce lagged forecasts if autocorrelation feature of runoff series is not taken carefully into account. To enhance timing accuracy of GP-based rainfall-runoff models, the paper proposes a new rainfall-runoff model that integrates season algorithm (SA) with multigene-GP (MGGP). The proposed SA-MGGP model was trained and validated for single- and two- and three-day ahead streamflow forecasts at Haldizen Catchment, Trabzon, Turkey. Timing and prediction accuracy of the proposed model were assessed in terms of different efficiency criteria. In addition, the efficiency results were compared to those of monolithic GP, MGGP, and SA-GP forecasting models developed in the present study as the benchmarks. The outcomes indicated that SA augments timing accuracy of GP-based models in the range 250% to 500%. It is also found that MGGP may identify underlying structure of the rainfall-runoff process slightly better than monolithic GP at the study catchment.

Suggested Citation

  • Ali Danandeh Mehr & Vahid Nourani, 2018. "Season Algorithm-Multigene Genetic Programming: A New Approach for Rainfall-Runoff Modelling," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(8), pages 2665-2679, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:32:y:2018:i:8:d:10.1007_s11269-018-1951-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-018-1951-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. E. Fallah-Mehdipour & O. Bozorg Haddad & M. Mariño, 2012. "Real-Time Operation of Reservoir System by Genetic Programming," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(14), pages 4091-4103, November.
    2. Wen-chuan Wang & Kwok-wing Chau & Dong-mei Xu & Xiao-Yun Chen, 2015. "Improving Forecasting Accuracy of Annual Runoff Time Series Using ARIMA Based on EEMD Decomposition," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(8), pages 2655-2675, June.
    3. Habib Akbari-Alashti & Omid Bozorg Haddad & Miguel Mariño, 2015. "Application of Fixed Length Gene Genetic Programming (FLGGP) in Hydropower Reservoir Operation," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(9), pages 3357-3370, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Maryam Rahimzad & Alireza Moghaddam Nia & Hosam Zolfonoon & Jaber Soltani & Ali Danandeh Mehr & Hyun-Han Kwon, 2021. "Performance Comparison of an LSTM-based Deep Learning Model versus Conventional Machine Learning Algorithms for Streamflow Forecasting," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(12), pages 4167-4187, September.
    2. Arash Malekian & Bahram Choubin & Junguo Liu & Farzaneh Sajedi-Hosseini, 2019. "Development of a New Integrated Framework for Improved Rainfall-Runoff Modeling under Climate Variability and Human Activities," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(7), pages 2501-2515, May.

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