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Identification of Drought Occurrences Using Ensemble Predictions up to 20-Days in Advance

Author

Listed:
  • Sourabh Shrivastava

    (National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting
    TERI University)

  • Sarat C. Kar

    (National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting)

  • A. K. Sahai

    (Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology)

  • Anu Rani Sharma

    (TERI University)

Abstract

In the present study, skill of an extended range forecast system has been evaluated for identifying droughts over central India 20-days in advance. Rainfall forecasts from 44 ensemble members of the forecast system developed Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune have been used to prepare probabilistic rainfall forecasts. It is seen that the uncertainties in the forecasts (in terms of ensemble spread) increases from day-5 to day 20. As the focus of the study is for drought predictions, forecasts in the bins 0-5 mm/5 day and 5-25 mm/5 day (no rain or less rain) were studied in detail. It is found that the modeling system has a tendency to over-forecast rainfall probabilities. With bias correction, the forecasts become more reliable. Various drought indices were computed using the mean of the forecast distribution up to 20-days in advance. Standardized precipitation index (SPI) computed using Gamma and Pearson type-III distributions are similar in the study region. It was found that these are in reasonable agreement with those from observations. Probabilistic forecasts of standardized precipitation index (SPI) were made and the relative operating characteristics (ROC) scores indicate that the forecasted SPI values are suitable for application.

Suggested Citation

  • Sourabh Shrivastava & Sarat C. Kar & A. K. Sahai & Anu Rani Sharma, 2018. "Identification of Drought Occurrences Using Ensemble Predictions up to 20-Days in Advance," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(6), pages 2113-2130, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:32:y:2018:i:6:d:10.1007_s11269-018-1921-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-018-1921-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. George Tsakiris, 2017. "Drought Risk Assessment and Management," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(10), pages 3083-3095, August.
    2. D. Pai & Latha Sridhar & Pulak Guhathakurta & H. Hatwar, 2011. "District-wide drought climatology of the southwest monsoon season over India based on standardized precipitation index (SPI)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 59(3), pages 1797-1813, December.
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