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Linking Hydrological Uncertainty with Equitable Allocation for Water Resources Decision-Making

Author

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  • G. W. Pienaar

    (Institute for Water Research Rhodes University)

  • D. A. Hughes

    (Institute for Water Research Rhodes University)

Abstract

Water resources allocation decisions have always been subject to uncertainty, but it has rarely been explicitly included. Greater competition for scarce resources and future uncertainties in supply suggest that risk estimates are required for different management decisions. Models are often used to generate information that can be used in decision making and a water allocation model is presented that is linked to an existing hydrological model that generates uncertainty ensembles and a model that generates environmental water requirements. The allocations are based on socio-economic values that quantify the impact of deficits in normal supply during dry periods when available water is reduced. It is designed to be flexible in terms of how allocations are made during deficit periods and provides outputs that account for the uncertainties in the input hydrological data. Two examples are provided to illustrate the application of the model and it is concluded that the outputs should be useful when combined with emerging approaches to uncertain decision-making and the identification of risk. The model is part of a broader project that aims to improve the way that uncertainty is dealt with in water resources decision-making.

Suggested Citation

  • G. W. Pienaar & D. A. Hughes, 2017. "Linking Hydrological Uncertainty with Equitable Allocation for Water Resources Decision-Making," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(1), pages 269-282, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:31:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s11269-016-1523-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-016-1523-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Durbach, Ian N. & Stewart, Theodor J., 2012. "Modeling uncertainty in multi-criteria decision analysis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 223(1), pages 1-14.
    2. Jess Schoeman & Catherine Allan & C. Max Finlayson, 2014. "A new paradigm for water? A comparative review of integrated, adaptive and ecosystem-based water management in the Anthropocene," International Journal of Water Resources Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 377-390, September.
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    1. Gabriela Reis & Francisco Assis Souza Filho & Donald Robert Nelson & Renan Vieira Rocha & Samiria Maria Oliveira Silva, 2020. "Development of a drought vulnerability index using MCDM and GIS: study case in São Paulo and Ceará, Brazil," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 104(2), pages 1781-1799, November.
    2. Bingkui Qiu & Yan Tu & Guoliang Ou & Min Zhou & Yifan Zhu & Shuhan Liu & Haoyang Ma, 2023. "Optimal Modeling of Sustainable Land Use Planning under Uncertain at a Watershed Level: Interval Stochastic Fuzzy Linear Programming with Chance Constraints," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-21, May.

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