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Flood Forecasting and Decision Making in the new Millennium. Where are We?

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  • Ezio Todini

    (University of Bologna)

Abstract

This paper reviews the development of real time flood forecasting systems from the early 1970 approaches to the recent probabilistic ones. A preliminary discussion on the motivations for developing real time flood forecasting systems is introduced to explain their evolution in the last four to five decades. It will be shown how recent probabilistic flood forecasts are more robust and effective than the traditional deterministic ones. In particular, when combined with Bayesian decision approaches, probabilistic forecasts are the most appropriate tools for rational decision making in flood warning and flood management. Moreover, they allow taking into account the information from several models to be taken into account by combining into a unique predictive density the deterministic predictions of several hydrological or hydraulic models of a different nature, while in the multi-temporal forecasting extensions, they provide to answers questions such as: Which is the probability of overtopping a dyke in the next 24 h? When will this event be more likely to occur during the next 24 h? The work concludes with a discussion on the still unresolved problems, namely how decisions makers can fully take advantage of the probabilistic forecasts and how these forecasts must be communicated to them in order to meet this objective.

Suggested Citation

  • Ezio Todini, 2017. "Flood Forecasting and Decision Making in the new Millennium. Where are We?," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(10), pages 3111-3129, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:31:y:2017:i:10:d:10.1007_s11269-017-1693-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-017-1693-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Diebold, Francis X & Gunther, Todd A & Tay, Anthony S, 1998. "Evaluating Density Forecasts with Applications to Financial Risk Management," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 863-883, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    2. George Tsakiris, 2017. "Facets of Modern Water Resources Management: Prolegomena," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(10), pages 2899-2904, August.

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