IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/waterr/v29y2015i10p3771-3785.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Reliability Analysis for Preliminary Forecasts of Hydrogeological Unit Productivity

Author

Listed:
  • Claudio Alimonti
  • Mara Lombardi

Abstract

The aim of this work is to find a probabilistic characterization of the productive capacity of a well in a geological formation hosting an aquifer. Such characterization in terms of productive capacity may allow a preliminary assessment to be made of the probability of success for a required productivity (i.e. target point). This evaluation is usually carried out by statistical analysis of a geological dataset, which is likely to be influenced by many parameters. Such datasets are often incomplete or unreliable. Therefore, a method for evaluating potential productivity, using probabilistic hydraulic conductivity data, is proposed. The hydraulic characterization of hydrogeologic units is based on the collection of information obtained mainly through pumping tests and their interpretation. The results, expressed in terms of hydraulic conductivity, are summarized in a range of variability that is strictly dependent on the number of performed tests and their spatial distribution in the unit itself. If this range is known, an estimate of well’s yield can be made on a deterministic basis, through Thiem’s relationship for steady state conditions, by setting a value of hydraulic conductivity that corresponds to the average value of the range. The proposed reliability analysis enables to overcome the limitations of the deterministic approach by correlating each calculated flow rate, which is taken to be a design flow rate exceeding the critical flow rate of the hydrogeologic unit, to its probability of failure. Therefore, this approach aims to evaluate the probability of failure of the water system. The preliminary result is to associate the values of aquifer exploitation with a probability failure function. This outcome can then be used to define the potential solutions in the optimal allocation of the withdrawal by means of reliability analysis that takes into account the uncertainty of the system. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Claudio Alimonti & Mara Lombardi, 2015. "Reliability Analysis for Preliminary Forecasts of Hydrogeological Unit Productivity," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(10), pages 3771-3785, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:29:y:2015:i:10:p:3771-3785
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-015-1028-5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11269-015-1028-5
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11269-015-1028-5?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Larry Mays, 2013. "Groundwater Resources Sustainability: Past, Present, and Future," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(13), pages 4409-4424, October.
    2. Aristotelis Mantoglou & George Kourakos, 2007. "Optimal Groundwater Remediation Under Uncertainty Using Multi-objective Optimization," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 21(5), pages 835-847, May.
    3. R. Mazza & F. La Vigna & C. Alimonti, 2014. "Evaluating the Available Regional Groundwater Resources Using the Distributed Hydrogeological Budget," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(3), pages 749-765, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hamid Kardan Moghaddam & Mohammad Ebrahim Banihabib & Saman Javadi & Timothy O. Randhir, 2021. "A framework for the assessment of qualitative and quantitative sustainable development of groundwater system," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(6), pages 1096-1110, November.
    2. Claudio Alimonti & Mara Lombardi & Monica Cardarilli & Elena Soldo, 2017. "Reliability Analysis Applied on Land Subsidence Effects of Groundwater Remediation: Probabilistic vs. Deterministic Approach," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(6), pages 1745-1758, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Xiaoyi Liu & Jonghyun Lee & Peter Kitanidis & Jack Parker & Ungtae Kim, 2012. "Value of Information as a Context-Specific Measure of Uncertainty in Groundwater Remediation," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(6), pages 1513-1535, April.
    2. Samuel Sandoval-Solis & Jose Pablo Ortiz Partida & Lindsay Floyd, 2022. "Multi-Objective Water Planning in a Poor Water Data Region: Aragvi River Basin," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-16, March.
    3. Seyed Naghibi & Hamid Pourghasemi, 2015. "A Comparative Assessment Between Three Machine Learning Models and Their Performance Comparison by Bivariate and Multivariate Statistical Methods in Groundwater Potential Mapping," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(14), pages 5217-5236, November.
    4. Robert L. Oxley & Larry W. Mays & Alan Murray, 2016. "Optimization Model for the Sustainable Water Resource Management of River Basins," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(9), pages 3247-3264, July.
    5. Zeinab Takbiri & Abbas Afshar, 2012. "Multi-Objective Optimization of Fusegates System under Hydrologic Uncertainties," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(8), pages 2323-2345, June.
    6. Abbas Afshar & Mohamad Amin Tavakoli & Ali Khodagholi, 2020. "Multi-Objective Hydro-Economic Modeling for Sustainable Groundwater Management," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(6), pages 1855-1869, April.
    7. Hamid Kardan Moghaddam & Mohammad Ebrahim Banihabib & Saman Javadi & Timothy O. Randhir, 2021. "A framework for the assessment of qualitative and quantitative sustainable development of groundwater system," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(6), pages 1096-1110, November.
    8. Li He & Feng Shao & Lixia Ren, 2021. "Sustainability appraisal of desired contaminated groundwater remediation strategies: an information-entropy-based stochastic multi-criteria preference model," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 1759-1779, February.
    9. Miguel Pérez-Martín & Teodoro Estrela & Joaquín Andreu & Javier Ferrer, 2014. "Modeling Water Resources and River-Aquifer Interaction in the Júcar River Basin, Spain," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(12), pages 4337-4358, September.
    10. P. Sidiropoulos & N. Mylopoulos & A. Loukas, 2015. "Stochastic Simulation and Management of an Over-Exploited Aquifer Using an Integrated Modeling System," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(3), pages 929-943, February.
    11. Jean-Daniel Rinaudo & Guillermo Donoso, 2019. "State, market or community failure? Untangling the determinants of groundwater depletion in Copiapó (Chile)," International Journal of Water Resources Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(2), pages 283-304, March.
    12. Cody R. Saville & Gretchen R. Miller & Kelly Brumbelow, 2016. "Using Envision to Assess the Sustainability of Groundwater Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Twin Oaks Aquifer Storage and Recovery Project," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(5), pages 1-15, May.
    13. James Stoutenborough & Arnold Vedlitz, 2014. "Public Attitudes Toward Water Management and Drought in the United States," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(3), pages 697-714, February.
    14. Bungon Kumphon, 2013. "Genetic Algorithms for Multi-objective Optimization: Application to a Multi-reservoir System in the Chi River Basin, Thailand," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(12), pages 4369-4378, September.
    15. Singh, Ajay, 2014. "Simulation–optimization modeling for conjunctive water use management," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 23-29.
    16. Arianna Renau-Pruñonosa & Ignacio Morell & David Pulido-Velazquez, 2016. "A Methodology to Analyse and Assess Pumping Management Strategies in Coastal Aquifers to Avoid Degradation Due to Seawater Intrusion Problems," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(13), pages 4823-4837, October.
    17. L. Raso & S. V. Weijs & M. Werner, 2018. "Balancing Costs and Benefits in Selecting New Information: Efficient Monitoring Using Deterministic Hydro-economic Models," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(1), pages 339-357, January.
    18. Abdessamed Derdour & Hazem Ghassan Abdo & Hussein Almohamad & Abdullah Alodah & Ahmed Abdullah Al Dughairi & Sherif S. M. Ghoneim & Enas Ali, 2023. "Prediction of Groundwater Quality Index Using Classification Techniques in Arid Environments," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-20, June.
    19. Gricelda Herrera-Franco & Paúl Carrión-Mero & Maribel Aguilar-Aguilar & Fernando Morante-Carballo & María Jaya-Montalvo & M.C. Morillo-Balsera, 2020. "Groundwater Resilience Assessment in a Communal Coastal Aquifer System. The Case of Manglaralto in Santa Elena, Ecuador," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(19), pages 1-27, October.
    20. Mohd Sayeed Ul Hasan & Mufti Mohammad Saif & Nehal Ahmad & Abhishek Kumar Rai & Mohammad Amir Khan & Ali Aldrees & Wahaj Ahmad Khan & Mustafa K. A. Mohammed & Zaher Mundher Yaseen, 2023. "Spatiotemporal Analysis of Future Trends in Terrestrial Water Storage Anomalies at Different Climatic Zones of India Using GRACE/GRACE-FO," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-24, January.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:29:y:2015:i:10:p:3771-3785. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.