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Statistical Downscaling of River Runoff in a Semi Arid Catchment

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  • S. Samadi
  • Gregory Carbone
  • M. Mahdavi
  • F. Sharifi
  • M. Bihamta

Abstract

Linear and non-linear statistical ‘downscaling’ study is applied to relate large-scale climate information from a general circulation model (GCM) to local-scale river flows in west Iran. This study aims to investigate and evaluate the more promising downscaling techniques, and provides a through inter comparison study using Karkheh catchment as an experimental site in a semi arid region for the years of 2040 to 2069. A hybrid conceptual hydrological model was used in conjunction with modeled outcomes from a General Circulation Model (GCM), HadCM3, along with two downscaling techniques, Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN), to determine how future streamflow may change in a semi arid catchment. The results show that the choice of a downscaling algorithm having a significant impact on the streamflow estimations for a semi-arid catchment, which are mainly, influenced, respectively, by atmospheric precipitation and temperature projections. According to the SDSM and ANN projections, daily temperature will increase up to +0.58 0C (+3.90 %) and +0.48 0C (+3.48 %), and daily precipitation will decrease up to −0.1 mm (−2.56 %) and −0.4 mm (−2.82 %) respectively. Moreover streamflow changes corresponding to downscaled future projections presented a reduction in mean annual flow of −3.7 m^3/s and −9.47 m^3/s using SDSM and ANN outputs respectively. The results suggest a significant reduction of streamflow in both downscaling projections, particularly in winter. The discussion considers the performance of each statistical method for downscaling future flow at catchment scale as well as the relationship between atmospheric processes and flow variability and changes. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

Suggested Citation

  • S. Samadi & Gregory Carbone & M. Mahdavi & F. Sharifi & M. Bihamta, 2013. "Statistical Downscaling of River Runoff in a Semi Arid Catchment," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(1), pages 117-136, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:27:y:2013:i:1:p:117-136
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-012-0170-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Subimal Ghosh & Sudhir Katkar, 2012. "Modeling Uncertainty Resulting from Multiple Downscaling Methods in Assessing Hydrological Impacts of Climate Change," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(12), pages 3559-3579, September.
    2. Ryan MacDonald & James Byrne & Sarah Boon & Stefan Kienzle, 2012. "Modelling the Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Snowpack in the North Saskatchewan River Watershed, Alberta," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(11), pages 3053-3076, September.
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    1. A. Casanueva & M. Frías & S. Herrera & D. San-Martín & K. Zaninovic & J. Gutiérrez, 2014. "Statistical downscaling of climate impact indices: testing the direct approach," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 127(3), pages 547-560, December.
    2. Martin Hanel & Magdalena Mrkvičková & Petr Máca & Adam Vizina & Pavel Pech, 2013. "Evaluation of Simple Statistical Downscaling Methods for Monthly Regional Climate Model Simulations with Respect to the Estimated Changes in Runoff in the Czech Republic," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(15), pages 5261-5279, December.
    3. Jew Das & Nanduri V. Umamahesh, 2016. "Downscaling Monsoon Rainfall over River Godavari Basin under Different Climate-Change Scenarios," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(15), pages 5575-5587, December.
    4. Reyhaneh Rahimi & Hassan Tavakol-Davani & Mohsen Nasseri, 2021. "An Uncertainty-Based Regional Comparative Analysis on the Performance of Different Bias Correction Methods in Statistical Downscaling of Precipitation," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(8), pages 2503-2518, June.
    5. Woonsup Choi & Sung Kim & Mark Lee & Kristina Koenig & Peter Rasmussen, 2014. "Hydrological Impacts of Warmer and Wetter Climate in Troutlake and Sturgeon River Basins in Central Canada," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(15), pages 5319-5333, December.

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