IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/ssefpa/v11y2019i2d10.1007_s12571-019-00909-y.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

How accurate is food security early warning? Evaluation of FEWS NET accuracy in Ethiopia

Author

Listed:
  • Richard J. Choularton

    (Tetra Tech)

  • P. Krishna Krishnamurthy

    (University of California, Los Angeles)

Abstract

Famine early warning systems are fundamental for anticipating and preventing food security crises. These systems require diverse socio-economic, climate and other environmental indicators. However, the uncertainty that is inherent in climate forecasts and other early warning data can influence the accuracy of early warning systems. Inaccurate forecasts result in ineffective preparedness and poor resource allocation. We present a replicable method to evaluate the accuracy of the Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) food security projections. The analysis was carried out for Ethiopia over the period January 2011 to June 2017. The findings show high levels of accuracy in the system overall which should give decision makers a high degree of confidence in using the information provided by FEWS NET. The results indicate higher accuracy in the western parts of the country and lower accuracy in the generally food insecure northeastern regions – likely due to insufficient information and high levels of vulnerability. In addition, we found a significant decrease in accuracy during the 2015/2016 El Niño, likely linked to the heterogeneous impacts from El Niño and higher levels of forecast uncertainty. The results also show mixed forecasting accuracy in situations of transition from food security to food crises and point to geographical areas where investments in early warning data collection and analysis would likely yield valuable improvements in the performance of the system.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard J. Choularton & P. Krishna Krishnamurthy, 2019. "How accurate is food security early warning? Evaluation of FEWS NET accuracy in Ethiopia," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 11(2), pages 333-344, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:ssefpa:v:11:y:2019:i:2:d:10.1007_s12571-019-00909-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s12571-019-00909-y
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s12571-019-00909-y
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s12571-019-00909-y?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Erin Coughlan de Perez & Maarten van Aalst & Richard Choularton & Bart van den Hurk & Simon Mason & Hannah Nissan & Saroja Schwager, 2019. "From rain to famine: assessing the utility of rainfall observations and seasonal forecasts to anticipate food insecurity in East Africa," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 11(1), pages 57-68, February.
    2. Ademola Braimoh & Bernard Manyena & Grace Obuya & Francis Muraya, 2018. "Assessment of Food Security Early Warning Systems for East and Southern Africa," World Bank Publications - Reports 29269, The World Bank Group.
    3. Catherine Vaughan & Suraje Dessai, 2014. "Climate services for society: origins, institutional arrangements, and design elements for an evaluation framework," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 5(5), pages 587-603, September.
    4. Headey, Derek D. & Ecker, Olivier, 2012. "Improving the measurement of food security:," IFPRI discussion papers 1225, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Backer, David & Billing, Trey, 2024. "Forecasting the prevalence of child acute malnutrition using environmental and conflict conditions as leading indicators," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    2. Sylvain Charlebois & Janet Music & Shannon Faires, 2021. "The Impact of COVID-19 on Canada’s Food Literacy: Results of a Cross-National Survey," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(10), pages 1-13, May.
    3. Lin Liu & Bruno Basso, 2020. "Linking field survey with crop modeling to forecast maize yield in smallholder farmers’ fields in Tanzania," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 12(3), pages 537-548, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:aer:wpaper:338 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Joachim De Weerdt & Kathleen Beegle & Jed Friedman & John Gibson, 2016. "The Challenge of Measuring Hunger through Survey," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 64(4), pages 727-758.
    3. Baez, Javier E. & Kshirsagar, Varun & Skoufias, Emmanuel, 2024. "Drought-sensitive targeting and child growth faltering in Southern Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    4. Dragana Bojovic & Andria Nicodemou & Asun Lera St.Clair & Isadora Christel & Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, 2022. "Exploring the landscape of seasonal forecast provision by Global Producing Centres," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 172(1), pages 1-23, May.
    5. Kabunga, Nassul Ssentamu & Ghosh, Shibani & Griffiths, Jeffrey K., 2014. "Can smallholder fruit and vegetable production systems improve household food security and nutritional status of women? Evidence from rural Uganda:," IFPRI discussion papers 1346, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    6. Santeramo, Fabio Gaetano, 2014. "On the composite indicators for food security: Decisions matter!," MPRA Paper 58955, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Adama Ouedraogo & Irene S. Egyir & Mathieu Ouedraogo & John Baptist D. Jatoe, 2022. "Farmers’ Demand for Climate Information Services: A Systematic Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-18, July.
    8. Rosina Wanyama & Theda Gödecke & Matin Qaim, 2019. "Food Security and Dietary Quality in African Slums," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(21), pages 1-17, October.
    9. Evita Pangaribowo & Nicolas Gerber & Maximo Torero, 2013. "Food and Nutrition Security Indicators: A Review," FOODSECURE Working papers 5, LEI Wageningen UR.
    10. Bageant, Elizabeth & Liu, Yanyan & Diao, Xinshen, 2016. "Agriculture-nutrition linkages and child health in the presence of conflict in Nepal:," IFPRI discussion papers 1515, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    11. repec:lic:licosd:36515 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. International Food Policy Research Institute, 2013. "Global Hunger Index 2013 - The Challenge of Hunger: Building Resilience to Achieve Food and Nutrition Security," Working Papers id:5533, eSocialSciences.
    13. Ecker, O., 2018. "Agricultural Transformation and Food and Nutrition Security: Does Farm Production Diversity (Still) Matter for Dietary Diversity among Ghanaian Farm Households?," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 276999, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    14. Christophe Béné & Derek Headey & Lawrence Haddad & Klaus Grebmer, 2016. "Is resilience a useful concept in the context of food security and nutrition programmes? Some conceptual and practical considerations," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 8(1), pages 123-138, February.
    15. Broussard, Nzinga H., 2019. "What explains gender differences in food insecurity?," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 180-194.
    16. Andrew M. Linke & Frank D. W. Witmer & John O’Loughlin, 2020. "Do people accurately report droughts? Comparison of instrument-measured and national survey data in Kenya," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(3), pages 1143-1160, October.
    17. Maurice Skelton, 2020. "How cognitive links and decision-making capacity shape sectoral experts’ recognition of climate knowledge for adaptation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(3), pages 1535-1553, October.
    18. Vellema, Wytse & Desiere, Sam & D'Haese, Marijke, 2014. "Verifying validity of the household dietary diversity score: an application of rasch modelling," 2014 International Congress, August 26-29, 2014, Ljubljana, Slovenia 182692, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    19. Vasylieva, Natalia, 2017. "Economic Aspects of Food Security in Ukrainian Meat and Milk Clusters," AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Economics and Management, vol. 9(3), September.
    20. von Grebmer, Klaus & Headey, Derek & Bene, Christophe & Haddad, Lawrence & Olofinbiyi, Tolulope & Wiesmann, Doris & Fritschel, Heidi & Yin, Sandra & Yohannes, Yisehac & Foley, Connell & von Oppeln, Co, 2013. "2013 Global Hunger Index: The challenge of hunger: Building resilience to achieve food and nutrition security," IFPRI books, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), number 978-0-89629-951-1 edited by von Oppeln, Constanze & Labahn, Marius & Towey, Olive & von Grebmer, Klaus, October.
    21. Conor Murphy & Anthony Kettle & Hadush Meresa & Saeed Golian & Michael Bruen & Fiachra O’Loughlin & Per-Erik Mellander, 2023. "Climate Change Impacts on Irish River Flows: High Resolution Scenarios and Comparison with CORDEX and CMIP6 Ensembles," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(5), pages 1841-1858, March.
    22. von Grebmer, Klaus & Headey, Derek & Bene, Christophe & Haddad, Lawrence & Olofinbiyi, Tolulope & Wiesmann, Doris & Fritschel, Heidi & Yin, Sandra & Yohannes, Yisehac & Foley, Connell & von Oppeln, Co, 2013. "2013 Welthunger-Index: Herausforderung Hunger: Widerstandsfahigkeit starken Ernahrung sichern," IFPRI books, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), number 978-0-89629-835-4 edited by von Oppeln, Constanze & Labahn, Marius & Towey, Olive & von Grebmer, Klaus.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:ssefpa:v:11:y:2019:i:2:d:10.1007_s12571-019-00909-y. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.