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How accurate is food security early warning? Evaluation of FEWS NET accuracy in Ethiopia

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  • Richard J. Choularton

    (Tetra Tech)

  • P. Krishna Krishnamurthy

    (University of California, Los Angeles)

Abstract

Famine early warning systems are fundamental for anticipating and preventing food security crises. These systems require diverse socio-economic, climate and other environmental indicators. However, the uncertainty that is inherent in climate forecasts and other early warning data can influence the accuracy of early warning systems. Inaccurate forecasts result in ineffective preparedness and poor resource allocation. We present a replicable method to evaluate the accuracy of the Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) food security projections. The analysis was carried out for Ethiopia over the period January 2011 to June 2017. The findings show high levels of accuracy in the system overall which should give decision makers a high degree of confidence in using the information provided by FEWS NET. The results indicate higher accuracy in the western parts of the country and lower accuracy in the generally food insecure northeastern regions – likely due to insufficient information and high levels of vulnerability. In addition, we found a significant decrease in accuracy during the 2015/2016 El Niño, likely linked to the heterogeneous impacts from El Niño and higher levels of forecast uncertainty. The results also show mixed forecasting accuracy in situations of transition from food security to food crises and point to geographical areas where investments in early warning data collection and analysis would likely yield valuable improvements in the performance of the system.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard J. Choularton & P. Krishna Krishnamurthy, 2019. "How accurate is food security early warning? Evaluation of FEWS NET accuracy in Ethiopia," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 11(2), pages 333-344, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:ssefpa:v:11:y:2019:i:2:d:10.1007_s12571-019-00909-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s12571-019-00909-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Erin Coughlan de Perez & Maarten van Aalst & Richard Choularton & Bart van den Hurk & Simon Mason & Hannah Nissan & Saroja Schwager, 2019. "From rain to famine: assessing the utility of rainfall observations and seasonal forecasts to anticipate food insecurity in East Africa," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 11(1), pages 57-68, February.
    2. Ademola Braimoh & Bernard Manyena & Grace Obuya & Francis Muraya, 2018. "Assessment of Food Security Early Warning Systems for East and Southern Africa," World Bank Publications - Reports 29269, The World Bank Group.
    3. Catherine Vaughan & Suraje Dessai, 2014. "Climate services for society: origins, institutional arrangements, and design elements for an evaluation framework," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 5(5), pages 587-603, September.
    4. Headey, Derek D. & Ecker, Olivier, 2012. "Improving the measurement of food security:," IFPRI discussion papers 1225, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
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    Cited by:

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    3. Lin Liu & Bruno Basso, 2020. "Linking field survey with crop modeling to forecast maize yield in smallholder farmers’ fields in Tanzania," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 12(3), pages 537-548, June.

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