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Climate Change Impacts on Irish River Flows: High Resolution Scenarios and Comparison with CORDEX and CMIP6 Ensembles

Author

Listed:
  • Conor Murphy

    (Maynooth University)

  • Anthony Kettle

    (Maynooth University)

  • Hadush Meresa

    (Maynooth University)

  • Saeed Golian

    (Maynooth University)

  • Michael Bruen

    (University College Dublin)

  • Fiachra O’Loughlin

    (University College Dublin)

  • Per-Erik Mellander

    (Johnstown Castle
    Crops, Environment and Land Use Programme, Johnstown Castle)

Abstract

Climate change is likely to impact water quality, resource availability and riverine ecosystems. While large ensembles are available to assess future impacts (e.g., the Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIP) and/or CORDEX) many countries have developed their own high-resolution ensembles. This poses a selection problem with robust adaptation dependent on plausible ranges of change being adequately quantified. Therefore, it is important to compare projected changes from available ensembles. Here we assess future climate change impacts for 26 Irish catchments. Using a high-resolution national ensemble of climate models projected impacts in mean, low and high flows are assessed and uncertainties in future projections related to catchment size. We then compare future impacts from CORDEX and CMIP6 ensembles for a subset of catchments. Results suggest increases in winter flows (-3.29 to 59.63%), with wide ranges of change simulated for summer (-59.18 to 31.23%), low (-49.30 to 22.37%) and flood (-19.31 to 116.34%) flows across catchments under RCP8.5 by the 2080s. These changes would challenge water management without adaptation. Smaller catchments tend to show the most extreme impacts and widest ranges of change in summer, low and flood flow changes. Both the ensemble mean and range of changes from the national ensemble were more modest and narrower than the CMIP6 and CORDEX ensembles, especially for summer mean and low flows, highlighting the importance of evaluating impacts across ensembles to ensure adaptation decisions are informed by plausible ranges of change.

Suggested Citation

  • Conor Murphy & Anthony Kettle & Hadush Meresa & Saeed Golian & Michael Bruen & Fiachra O’Loughlin & Per-Erik Mellander, 2023. "Climate Change Impacts on Irish River Flows: High Resolution Scenarios and Comparison with CORDEX and CMIP6 Ensembles," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(5), pages 1841-1858, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:37:y:2023:i:5:d:10.1007_s11269-023-03458-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-023-03458-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Saeed Golian & Conor Murphy, 2021. "Evaluation of Sub-Selection Methods for Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Low-Flow and Hydrological Drought Conditions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(1), pages 113-133, January.
    2. Getachew Tegegne & Assefa M. Melesse, 2020. "Multimodel Ensemble Projection of Hydro-climatic Extremes for Climate Change Impact Assessment on Water Resources," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(9), pages 3019-3035, July.
    3. Bergmeir, Christoph & Molina, Daniel & Benítez, José M., 2016. "Memetic Algorithms with Local Search Chains in R: The Rmalschains Package," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 75(i04).
    4. Catherine Vaughan & Suraje Dessai, 2014. "Climate services for society: origins, institutional arrangements, and design elements for an evaluation framework," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 5(5), pages 587-603, September.
    5. Sierra C. Woodruff, 2016. "Planning for an unknowable future: uncertainty in climate change adaptation planning," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 139(3), pages 445-459, December.
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