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Experience of Applying Structural Approach to Scenario Planning for Long-Term Socio-Economic Development Using the Survey Method

Author

Listed:
  • D. R. Belousov

    (Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting, Institute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences)

  • E. M. Sabel’nikova

    (Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting, Institute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences)

Abstract

— The article examines main approaches to creating scenarios for long-term socio-economic development and identifies their key advantages and disadvantages. The results of applying a structural approach to constructing scenarios using data from a survey of experts in the main areas of long-term socio-economic development are presented. A two-step procedure is proposed where the factors are ordered by significance for long-term development and relationships between them are identified. The resulting three scenarios are described.

Suggested Citation

  • D. R. Belousov & E. M. Sabel’nikova, 2024. "Experience of Applying Structural Approach to Scenario Planning for Long-Term Socio-Economic Development Using the Survey Method," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 35(4), pages 508-517, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sorede:v:35:y:2024:i:4:d:10.1134_s1075700724700060
    DOI: 10.1134/S1075700724700060
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. A. A. Shirov, 2023. "Development of the Russian Economy in the Medium Term: Risks and Opportunities," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 159-166, April.
    2. Fabrice Roubelat, 2000. "Scenario Planning as a Networking Process," Post-Print hal-02148889, HAL.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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