IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/forpol/v82y2017icp30-40.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The future operating environment of the Finnish sawmill industry in an era of climate change mitigation policies

Author

Listed:
  • Packalen, Tuula
  • Kärkkäinen, Leena
  • Toppinen, Anne

Abstract

Sawnwood and its further-processed products play an important role in the mitigation of climate change; sawnwood, as well as its by-products from production processes, such as raw material (bark, chips, dust) for energy products (e.g. pellets, heating power), can substitute for other raw materials with higher carbon footprints. In this study, we integrate various foresight methods in analysing the future of the sawmilling industry in Finland. According to the results, climate change mitigation policies impact firstly through increasing energy costs and secondly through emerging energy products. The greatest uncertainties are related to the price of energy and the competitive situation of wood as a potential source of energy, both regulated heavily by EU- and national-level policies. In addition, the future development of biorefineries was regarded as a potential driver of change: the increasing demand for pulpwood would increase competition for the raw materials. From a managerial perspective, the Finnish sawmilling industry should thus consider adoption of new business models for joint production of wood, chips, and energy for heat and power. For the policymakers our study illustrates how important it is to take into account the causal effects on profitability determinants when designing policy measures.

Suggested Citation

  • Packalen, Tuula & Kärkkäinen, Leena & Toppinen, Anne, 2017. "The future operating environment of the Finnish sawmill industry in an era of climate change mitigation policies," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 30-40.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:forpol:v:82:y:2017:i:c:p:30-40
    DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2016.09.017
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1389934116303124
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.forpol.2016.09.017?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Näyhä, Annukka & Pesonen, Hanna-Leena, 2012. "Diffusion of forest biorefineries in Scandinavia and North America," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 79(6), pages 1111-1120.
    2. Kuusi, Osmo, 1999. "Expertise in the Future Use of Generic Technologies," Research Reports 59, VATT Institute for Economic Research.
    3. O'Brien, F. A., 2004. "Scenario planning--lessons for practice from teaching and learning," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 152(3), pages 709-722, February.
    4. Pätäri, Satu & Tuppura, Anni & Toppinen, Anne & Korhonen, Jaana, 2016. "Global sustainability megaforces in shaping the future of the European pulp and paper industry towards a bioeconomy," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 38-46.
    5. Hurmekoski, Elias & Jonsson, Ragnar & Nord, Tomas, 2015. "Context, drivers, and future potential for wood-frame multi-story construction in Europe," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 181-196.
    6. Rowe, Gene & Wright, George, 1999. "The Delphi technique as a forecasting tool: issues and analysis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 353-375, October.
    7. Lähtinen, Katja & Toppinen, Anne, 2008. "Financial performance in Finnish large- and medium-sized sawmills: The effects of value-added creation and cost-efficiency seeking," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 289-305, November.
    8. Fabrice Roubelat, 2000. "Scenario Planning as a Networking Process," Post-Print hal-02148889, HAL.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Heiskanen, Aleksi & Hurmekoski, Elias & Toppinen, Anne & Näyhä, Annukka, 2022. "Exploring the unknowns – State of the art in qualitative forest-based sector foresight research," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    2. Toivonen, Ritva & Lilja, Anna & Vihemäki, Heini & Toppinen, Anne, 2021. "Future export markets of industrial wood construction – A qualitative backcasting study," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    3. Kunttu, Janni & Hurmekoski, Elias & Heräjärvi, Henrik & Hujala, Teppo & Leskinen, Pekka, 2020. "Preferable utilisation patterns of wood product industries' by-products in Finland," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    4. Slavec, Ana & Hoeben, Annechien D. & Moreno-Torres, Miguel & Primožič, Lea & Stern, Tobias, 2023. "When intentions do not matter: Climate change mitigation and adaptation innovations in the Forest-based sector," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    5. Kärkkäinen, Leena & Haakana, Helena & Hirvelä, Hannu & Packalen, Tuula, 2019. "Using a decision support system to study impacts of land use policies on wood procurement possibilities of the sawmill industry – A case study at regional and municipal levels," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 136-146.
    6. Janni Kunttu & Venla Wallius & Martti Kulvik & Pekka Leskinen & Jussi Lintunen & Timokleia Orfanidou & Diana Tuomasjukka, 2022. "Exploring 2040: Global Trends and International Policies Setting Frames for the Finnish Wood-Based Economy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-20, August.
    7. Elizângela Silva Luz & Álvaro Augusto Vieira Soares & Selma Lopes Goulart & Amélia Guimarães Carvalho & Thiago Campos Monteiro & Thiago Paula Protásio, 2021. "Challenges of the lumber production in the Amazon region: relation between sustainability of sawmills, process yield and logs quality," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 4924-4948, April.
    8. Vauhkonen, Jari & Packalen, Tuula, 2018. "Uncertainties related to climate change and forest management with implications on climate regulation in Finland," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 33(PB), pages 213-224.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Heiskanen, Aleksi & Hurmekoski, Elias & Toppinen, Anne & Näyhä, Annukka, 2022. "Exploring the unknowns – State of the art in qualitative forest-based sector foresight research," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    2. Venn, Tyron J. & Dorries, Jack W. & McGavin, Robert L., 2021. "A mathematical model to support investment in veneer and LVL manufacturing in subtropical eastern Australia," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    3. Makkonen, Mari & Pätäri, Satu & Jantunen, Ari & Viljainen, Satu, 2012. "Competition in the European electricity markets – outcomes of a Delphi study," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 431-440.
    4. Weiss, Gerhard & Hansen, Eric & Ludvig, Alice & Nybakk, Erlend & Toppinen, Anne, 2021. "Innovation governance in the forest sector: Reviewing concepts, trends and gaps," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    5. Chun-Chieh Tseng & Jun-Yi Zeng & Min-Liang Hsieh & Chih-Hung Hsu, 2022. "Analysis of Innovation Drivers of New and Old Kinetic Energy Conversion Using a Hybrid Multiple-Criteria Decision-Making Model in the Post-COVID-19 Era: A Chinese Case," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(20), pages 1-25, October.
    6. Krigsholm, Pauliina & Zavialova, Sofia & Riekkinen, Kirsikka & Ståhle, Pirjo & Viitanen, Kauko, 2017. "Understanding the future of the Finnish cadastral system – A Delphi study," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 133-140.
    7. Paméla Baillette & Bernard Fallery, 2016. "La méthode du Delphi argumentaire, une innovation managériale dans le cadre d'un projet complexe," Post-Print hal-02160359, HAL.
    8. Brunnhofer, Magdalena & Gabriella, Natasha & Schöggl, Josef-Peter & Stern, Tobias & Posch, Alfred, 2020. "The biorefinery transition in the European pulp and paper industry – A three-phase Delphi study including a SWOT-AHP analysis," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    9. Aurélie Girard & Bernard Fallery & Florence Rodhain, 2013. "Integration of Social Media in Recruitment: A Delphi Study," Post-Print hal-00998494, HAL.
    10. Seppänen, Hannes & Luokkala, Pekka & Zhang, Zhe & Torkki, Paulus & Virrantaus, Kirsi, 2018. "Critical infrastructure vulnerability—A method for identifying the infrastructure service failure interdependencies," International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 25-38.
    11. Bonacina, Monica & Cret, Anna & Sileo, Antonio, 2009. "Gas storage services and regulation in Italy: A Delphi analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1277-1288, April.
    12. Hurmekoski, Elias & Lovrić, Marko & Lovrić, Nataša & Hetemäki, Lauri & Winkel, Georg, 2019. "Frontiers of the forest-based bioeconomy – A European Delphi study," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 86-99.
    13. Jonsson, Ragnar & Rinaldi, Francesca & Pilli, Roberto & Fiorese, Giulia & Hurmekoski, Elias & Cazzaniga, Noemi & Robert, Nicolas & Camia, Andrea, 2021. "Boosting the EU forest-based bioeconomy: Market, climate, and employment impacts," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    14. Kärkkäinen, Leena & Haakana, Helena & Hirvelä, Hannu & Packalen, Tuula, 2019. "Using a decision support system to study impacts of land use policies on wood procurement possibilities of the sawmill industry – A case study at regional and municipal levels," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 136-146.
    15. Toppinen, Anne & Röhr, Axel & Pätäri, Satu & Lähtinen, Katja & Toivonen, Ritva, 2018. "The future of wooden multistory construction in the forest bioeconomy – A Delphi study from Finland and Sweden," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 3-10.
    16. Prommer, Lisa & Tiberius, Victor & Kraus, Sascha, 2020. "Exploring the future of startup leadership development," Journal of Business Venturing Insights, Elsevier, vol. 14(C).
    17. Bas Kolen & Matthijs Kok & Ira Helsloot & Bob Maaskant, 2013. "EvacuAid: A Probabilistic Model to Determine the Expected Loss of Life for Different Mass Evacuation Strategies During Flood Threats," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(7), pages 1312-1333, July.
    18. Meissner, Philip & Brands, Christian & Wulf, Torsten, 2017. "Quantifiying blind spots and weak signals in executive judgment: A structured integration of expert judgment into the scenario development process," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 244-253.
    19. Asan, Umut & Erhan Bozdag, Cafer & Polat, Seçkin, 2004. "A fuzzy approach to qualitative cross impact analysis," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 443-458, December.
    20. Alhamzah Alnoor & Khai Wah Khaw & XinYing Chew & Sammar Abbas & Zeeshan Zaib Khattak, 2023. "The Influence of the Barriers of Hybrid Strategy on Strategic Competitive Priorities: Evidence from Oil Companies," Global Journal of Flexible Systems Management, Springer;Global Institute of Flexible Systems Management, vol. 24(2), pages 179-198, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:forpol:v:82:y:2017:i:c:p:30-40. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/forpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.