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Russian High-Technology Complex under Low Inflation and Government Support Limitation: The Condition, Capacity and Tendencies for Development

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  • I. E. Frolov

    (Institute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences
    National Research Nuclear University MEPhI)

Abstract

— The article aims to reconstruct and analyze the development trends of the Russian high-tech complex in 2011–2017. The main goal is to assess the development potential of the high-tech complex in 2018–2020 taking into consideration the state defense order financing, export supplies of weapons and military equipment, as well as civil output of the defense and nuclear industries. The findings showed that until 2014 the growth rates of the defense complex approximately correspond to official data, whereas in 2016–2017 there was a turnaround as in some subsectors the real growth was significantly lower than expected. It enables us to predict that the preservation of the current economic policy in the field of defense and security may lead to a reduction in the high-tech complex output from 2020. Meanwhile, it appears that at the moment there are no macroeconomic limitations that would hinder the positive dynamics continuation of the high-tech complex development provided changes in economic policy.

Suggested Citation

  • I. E. Frolov, 2019. "Russian High-Technology Complex under Low Inflation and Government Support Limitation: The Condition, Capacity and Tendencies for Development," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 30(4), pages 365-375, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sorede:v:30:y:2019:i:4:d:10.1134_s1075700719040051
    DOI: 10.1134/S1075700719040051
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. V. V. Klochkov & S. S. Kritskaya, 2017. "Forecasting the impact of economic sanctions on the development of the Russian aircraft industry," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 28(6), pages 616-623, November.
    2. D. A. Fomin & G. I. Khanin, 2017. "The dynamics of capital assets in the economy of the Russian Federation over the post-Soviet period (1992–2015)," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 28(4), pages 373-383, July.
    3. Yu. V. Chernyakhovskaya, 2018. "The Macro Impacts of International NPP Projects," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 21-27, January.
    4. A. A. Shirov & M. S. Gusev & I. E. Frolov, 2018. "Macroeconomic Effects of Russian Defense Expenditures: Retrospective Analysis and Forecast," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 29(4), pages 343-351, July.
    5. I. E. Frolov, 2016. "Assessment of Russian aviation development for long-term prospects with the regard for Arctic developing: reproductive and technological aspects," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 27(6), pages 629-637, November.
    6. Yu. A. Ul’yanin & V. V. Kharitonov & D. Yu. Yurshina, 2018. "Forecasting the Dynamics of the Depletion of Conventional Energy Resources," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 153-160, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. A. N. Klepach & L. B. Vodovatov & E. A. Dmitrieva, 2022. "Russian Science and Technology: Rise or Progressive Lag (Part I)," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 33(6), pages 631-644, December.
    2. N. A. Ganichev & O. B. Koshovets, 2022. "Rethinking Russian Digital Economy Development Under Sunctions," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 33(6), pages 645-655, December.
    3. V. V. Kharitonov & D. Yu. Semenova & E. V. Akinfeeva, 2021. "Investment Performance Predictions in the Digitization of Nuclear Energy," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 32(6), pages 662-667, November.
    4. V. N. Borisov & O. V. Pochukaeva & K. G. Pochukaev, 2020. "Domestic Investment Equipment in the World Market: Dynamics and Structural Changes," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 31(5), pages 463-470, September.
    5. A. A. Tresoruk & I. E. Frolov, 2020. "Long-Term Development of Russian Shipbuilding in View of Defense Sector Diversification Processes: Model and Forecast," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 31(6), pages 674-681, November.

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