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Analytical Methods for Forecasting Development in the Electric Power Industry

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  • Yu. D. Kononov

    (Russian Academy of Sciences)

  • D. Yu. Kononov

    (Russian Academy of Sciences)

Abstract

The article considers a methodical approach to analysis and tools for narrowing the scope of forecasting, formed from a variety of environmental scenarios, requirements for the development of the power industry, and rational ways to satisfy them. It is based on an assessment of the probability of implementing anticipated projects and their riskiness for potential investors. By an example of the power plant capacity projections, the effect of acceptable risk on the limits of forecasting is shown.

Suggested Citation

  • Yu. D. Kononov & D. Yu. Kononov, 2018. "Analytical Methods for Forecasting Development in the Electric Power Industry," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 29(5), pages 527-532, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sorede:v:29:y:2018:i:5:d:10.1134_s1075700718050076
    DOI: 10.1134/S1075700718050076
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. D. Yu. Kononov & Yu. D. Kononov, 2016. "Rational aggregation of territory in long-term forecasting of energy prices," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 27(6), pages 649-655, November.
    2. Guo, Zheng & Ma, Linwei & Liu, Pei & Jones, Ian & Li, Zheng, 2016. "A multi-regional modelling and optimization approach to China's power generation and transmission planning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 116(P2), pages 1348-1359.
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