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Prediction of Human Development from Environmental Indicators

Author

Listed:
  • Salvador Boccaletti Ramos

    (Universidade de Franca (UNIFRAN))

  • José Paula Silva

    (Universidade do Estado de Minas Gerais (UEMG))

  • Cláudia Alexandra Bolela

    (Universidade de Franca (UNIFRAN))

  • Mônica Andrade

    (Universidade de Franca (UNIFRAN))

Abstract

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) list the objectives and targets that should be addressed to solve the global issues regarding sustainable development. They encompass the social, economic and environmental dimensions and search for solutions that are able not only to monitor but also to control the operational indicators attributed to each objective. It is expected that many of these indicators are associated to each other and the accurate understanding of these correlations allows to build predictive statistical models that can improve the monitoring and controlling of variables. It would increase the rate of success in achieving the SDG. This study tested a linear multivariate model able to predict the human development index based on environmental variables which are related to SDG 3 (health), 4 (education), 8 (sustainable economic growth and decent work) and 15 (protect, restore and promote sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems). We fitted the models using the Linear Discriminant Analysis and Best Subset Selection applied to a Linear Multivariate Regression. The model predictive ability was assessed by R2 and cross-validation (CV). The results showed that exposure to unsafe sanitation, access to drinking water, tree cover loss, unsafe water quality, wastewater treatment level, and household air pollution are excellent predictors of human development index of a population, with R2 = 0.94 and 10-fold CV Mean Squared Error equal to 0.0014. This tool can help stakeholders to monitor and control indicators attributed to good health and well-being, quality education, clean water and sanitation, decent work and economic growth, sustainable cities and communities and life on land sustainable development goals.

Suggested Citation

  • Salvador Boccaletti Ramos & José Paula Silva & Cláudia Alexandra Bolela & Mônica Andrade, 2018. "Prediction of Human Development from Environmental Indicators," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 138(2), pages 467-477, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:soinre:v:138:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s11205-017-1693-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s11205-017-1693-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Barry B. Hughes & Mohammod T. Irfan & Jonathan D. Moyer & Dale S. Rothman & José R. Solórzano, 2011. "Forecasting the Impacts of Environmental Constraints on Human Development," Human Development Research Papers (2009 to present) HDRP-2011-08, Human Development Report Office (HDRO), United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).
    2. United Nations UN, 2015. "Transforming our World: the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development," Working Papers id:7559, eSocialSciences.
    3. Unknown, 2005. "Forward," 2005 Conference: Slovenia in the EU - Challenges for Agriculture, Food Science and Rural Affairs, November 10-11, 2005, Moravske Toplice, Slovenia 183804, Slovenian Association of Agricultural Economists (DAES).
    4. Milorad Kovacevic, 2010. "Review of HDI Critiques and Potential Improvements," Human Development Research Papers (2009 to present) HDRP-2010-33, Human Development Report Office (HDRO), United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).
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    Cited by:

    1. Juan A. García-Esparza & Javier Pardo & Pablo Altaba & Mario Alberich, 2023. "Validity of Machine Learning in Assessing Large Texts Through Sustainability Indicators," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 166(2), pages 323-337, April.
    2. Alvaro Cavalcanti & Arthur Teixeira & Karen Pontes, 2019. "Regression Model to Evaluate the Impact of Basic Sanitation Services in Households and Schools on Child Mortality in the Municipalities of the State of Alagoas, Brazil," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(15), pages 1-19, August.
    3. Comim, Flavio & Hirai, Tadashi, 2022. "Sustainability and Human Development Indicators: A Poset Analysis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).

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