IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/soinre/v133y2017i1d10.1007_s11205-016-1348-8.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Dynamic Reflections of Crimes, Quasi Democracy and Misery Index in Pakistan

Author

Listed:
  • Abdul Saboor

    (PMAS Arid Agriculture University)

  • Shumaila Sadiq

    (PMAS Arid Agriculture University)

  • Atta Ullah Khan

    (Preston University)

  • Gulnaz Hameed

    (PMAS Arid Agriculture University)

Abstract

Massive increase in crimes has coexisted with rising inflation and high unemployment for the last couple of decades especially during democratic governments in Pakistan. In this paper, we explore the relationship between crime rate, misery index and democracy in Pakistan from 1975 to 2013. Granger causality test proposed the unidirectional causality running from misery index to crime rate in Pakistan. Estimating the crime function via Pasaran’s conditional error correction model, we found the significant long run equilibrium relationship between Okun’s misery index and crime rate which implies that rising inflation and unemployment rate are the major driving forces towards increasing crime rates in Pakistan. Finally, empirical evidence from Okun’s misery index suggested that people are three times more miserable in quasi democratic periods than that of dictatorship. The Barrow’s misery index model verifies that people are twice worsening in quasi democratic periods. Likewise, reported crimes are nearly twice during quasi democracy than quasi dictatorship. The crime model provided the evidence that people during quasi democratic governments are more likely tending towards crime as compared to quasi dictatorship during the study period in Pakistan. This implicitly advocates the fact that half hearted efforts and ill structured apparatus of democracy can augment the tendency of crime and misery rather than solution of such concerns of the economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Abdul Saboor & Shumaila Sadiq & Atta Ullah Khan & Gulnaz Hameed, 2017. "Dynamic Reflections of Crimes, Quasi Democracy and Misery Index in Pakistan," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 133(1), pages 31-45, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:soinre:v:133:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s11205-016-1348-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s11205-016-1348-8
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11205-016-1348-8
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11205-016-1348-8?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gary S. Becker, 1974. "Crime and Punishment: An Economic Approach," NBER Chapters, in: Essays in the Economics of Crime and Punishment, pages 1-54, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Kenneth E. Fernandez & Michele Kuenzi, 2010. "Crime and Support for Democracy in Africa and Latin America," Political Studies, Political Studies Association, vol. 58, pages 450-471, June.
    3. John M. Nunley & Richard Alan Seals Jr. & Joachim Zietz, 2011. "The Impact of Macroeconomic Conditions on Property Crime," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2011-06, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
    4. Tang, Chor Foon & Lean, Hooi Hooi, 2009. "New evidence from the misery index in the crime function," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 112-115, February.
    5. Chester L. Britt, 1994. "Crime and Unemployment Among Youths in the United States, 1958‐1990," American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(1), pages 99-109, January.
    6. Chor Foon Tang & Hooi Hooi Lean, 2007. "Will Inflation Increase Crime Rate? New Evidence from Bounds and Modified Wald Tests," Global Crime, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(4), pages 311-323, November.
    7. Robert Witt & Alan Clarke & Nigel Fielding, 1998. "Crime, earnings inequality and unemployment in England and Wales," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(4), pages 265-267.
    8. Kenneth E. Fernandez & Michele Kuenzi, 2010. "Crime and Support for Democracy in Africa and Latin America," Political Studies, Political Studies Association, vol. 58(3), pages 450-471, June.
    9. Michael C. & Pao-Lin Tien, 2000. "Economic Discomfort and Consumer Sentiment," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 26(1), pages 1-8, Winter.
    10. Carmichael, Fiona & Ward, Robert, 2001. "Male unemployment and crime in England and Wales," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 111-115, October.
    11. Hooi Hooi Lean & Russell Smyth, 2011. "Will Obama's economic stimulus package be effective? Evidence from the misery index," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(5), pages 493-495.
    12. Lin, Ming-Jen, 2007. "Does democracy increase crime? The evidence from international data," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 467-483, September.
    13. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
    14. Piraee Khosrow & Barzegar Maryam, 2011. "The Relationship between the Misery Index and Crimes: Evidence from Iran," Asian Journal of Law and Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-21, April.
    15. Belton M. Fleisher, 1963. "The Effect of Unemployment on Juvenile Delinquency," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 71(6), pages 543-543.
    16. Dutta, Mousumi & Husain, Zakir, 2009. "Determinants of crime rates: Crime Deterrence and Growth in post-liberalized India," MPRA Paper 14478, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Ehrlich, Isaac, 1973. "Participation in Illegitimate Activities: A Theoretical and Empirical Investigation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 521-565, May-June.
    18. Chor Foon Tang, 2011. "An exploration of dynamic relationship between tourist arrivals, inflation, unemployment and crime rates in Malaysia," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 38(1), pages 50-69, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Weiming Li & Zhaoyang Cai & Shixiong Cao, 2021. "What has caused regional income inequality in China? Effects of 10 socioeconomic factors on per capita income," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(9), pages 13403-13417, September.
    2. Nianyong Wang & Muhammad Haroon Shah & Kishwar Ali & Shah Abbas & Sami Ullah, 2019. "Financial Structure, Misery Index, and Economic Growth: Time Series Empirics from Pakistan," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-15, June.
    3. Nicola Pontarollo & Silvia Ronchi & Carolina Serpieri, 2018. "European Union regional discomfort before and after the crisis," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 50(7), pages 1375-1380, October.
    4. Sakiru Adebola Solarin & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Carmen Lafuente, 2020. "Persistence of the Misery Index in African Countries," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 147(3), pages 825-841, February.
    5. Cai, Zhaoyang & Liu, Qing & Cao, Shixiong, 2020. "Real estate supports rapid development of China's urbanization," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ajide Folorunsho M., 2019. "Institutional Quality, Economic Misery and Crime Rate in Nigeria," Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 33(1), pages 170-182, January.
    2. Mohamad Kassem & Amjad Ali & Marc Audi, 2019. "Unemployment Rate, Population Density and Crime Rate in Punjab (Pakistan): An Empirical Analysis," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 8(2), pages 92-104, June.
    3. Piraee Khosrow & Barzegar Maryam, 2011. "The Relationship between the Misery Index and Crimes: Evidence from Iran," Asian Journal of Law and Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-21, April.
    4. Iddisah Sulemana, 2015. "The Effect of Fear of Crime and Crime Victimization on Subjective Well-Being in Africa," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 121(3), pages 849-872, April.
    5. Siti Nur Zahara HAMZAH & Evan LAU, 2013. "The role of social factors in explaining crime," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(6(583)), pages 99-118, June.
    6. Paolo Buonanno, 2003. "The Socioeconomic Determinants of Crime. A Review of the Literature," Working Papers 63, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Nov 2003.
    7. Lu Han & Siddhartha Bandyopadhyay & Samrat Bhattacharya, 2013. "Determinants of violent and property crimes in England and Wales: a panel data analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(34), pages 4820-4830, December.
    8. Stephen Brosnan, 2018. "The Socioeconomic Determinants of Crime in Ireland from 2003-2012," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 49(2), pages 127-143.
    9. Siddhartha Bandyopadhyay & Samrat Bhattacharya & Marianna Koli & Rudra Sensarma, 2012. "Acquisitive Crime, Sentencing and Detection: An Analysis of England and Wales," Discussion Papers 12-09, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
    10. Nouman Khaliq & Muhammad Shabbir & Zahira Batool, 2019. "Exploring the Influence of Unemployment on Criminal Behavior in Punjab, Pakistan," Global Regional Review, Humanity Only, vol. 4(1), pages 402-409, March.
    11. Taryn Ann Galloway & Stephen Pudney, 2011. "Initiation into crime: An analysis of Norwegian register data on five birth cohorts," Discussion Papers 655, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    12. Majid Maddah, 2013. "An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between Unemployment and Theft Crimes," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 3(1), pages 50-53.
    13. Nikolaos Dritsakis & Alexandros Gkanas, 2009. "The effect of socio-economic determinants on crime rates: An empirical research in the case of Greece with cointegration analysis," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), Democritus University of Thrace (DUTH), Kavala Campus, Greece, vol. 2(2), pages 51-64, December.
    14. Altindag, Duha T., 2012. "Crime and unemployment: Evidence from Europe," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 145-157.
    15. Cerro, Ana María & Ortega, Ana Carolina, 2012. "Sources of Regional Crime Persistence Argentina 1980-2008," MPRA Paper 44482, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Troy Lorde & Mahalia Jackman & Simon Naitram & Shane Lowe, 2016. "Does crime depend on the “state” of economic misery?," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 43(11), pages 1124-1134, November.
    17. Dongxu Wu & Zhongmin Wu, 2012. "Crime, inequality and unemployment in England and Wales," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(29), pages 3765-3775, October.
    18. Ayesha Haider & Amjad Ali, 2015. "Socio-Economic Determinants of Crimes: A Cross-Sectional Study of Punjab Districts," International Journal of Economics and Empirical Research (IJEER), The Economics and Social Development Organization (TESDO), vol. 3(11), pages 550-560, November.
    19. David B. Mustard, 2010. "Labor Markets and Crime: New Evidence on an Old Puzzle," Chapters, in: Bruce L. Benson & Paul R. Zimmerman (ed.), Handbook on the Economics of Crime, chapter 14, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    20. Ya‐Hwei Yang, 1997. "Economic crime and business cycles in Taiwan," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(3), pages 388-405.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:soinre:v:133:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s11205-016-1348-8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.