IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/soinre/v127y2016i1d10.1007_s11205-015-0950-5.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Relationship Between FDI, Terrorism and Economic Growth in Pakistan: Pre and Post 9/11 Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad

    (COMSATS Institute of Information Technology)

  • Muhammad Zakaria

    (COMSATS Institute of Information Technology)

  • Mobeen Ur Rehman

    (COMSATS Institute of Information Technology)

  • Tanveer Ahmed

    (COMSATS Institute of Information Technology)

  • Bashir Ahmed Fida

    (Modern College of Business and Sciences)

Abstract

The study examines cointegration and causal relationship between FDI, terrorism and economic growth in Pakistan using quarterly frequencies for the period 1988–2010. For empirical analysis data is divided into two sub-periods i.e. pre 9/11 (1988–2001) and post 9/11 (2002–2010) periods. The results show that long run cointegration holds between FDI, terrorism and economic growth. Granger causality results indicate that there is bidirectional short and long run causality between economic growth and FDI for both sub-samples. These findings are supported by variance decomposition and impulse response analysis. The findings suggest applicability of modernization theory to explain FDI and economic growth relationship. The results also reveal that terrorism has a deteriorating impact on FDI.

Suggested Citation

  • Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Muhammad Zakaria & Mobeen Ur Rehman & Tanveer Ahmed & Bashir Ahmed Fida, 2016. "Relationship Between FDI, Terrorism and Economic Growth in Pakistan: Pre and Post 9/11 Analysis," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 127(1), pages 179-194, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:soinre:v:127:y:2016:i:1:d:10.1007_s11205-015-0950-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s11205-015-0950-5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11205-015-0950-5
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11205-015-0950-5?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gupta, Sanjeev & Clements, Benedict & Bhattacharya, Rina & Chakravarti, Shamit, 2004. "Fiscal consequences of armed conflict and terrorism in low- and middle-income countries," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 403-421, June.
    2. Blomberg, S. Brock & Hess, Gregory D. & Weerapana, Akila, 2004. "Economic conditions and terrorism," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 463-478, June.
    3. Alberto Abadie & Javier Gardeazabal, 2003. "The Economic Costs of Conflict: A Case Study of the Basque Country," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 113-132, March.
    4. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    5. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    6. Granger, Clive W. J. & Huangb, Bwo-Nung & Yang, Chin-Wei, 2000. "A bivariate causality between stock prices and exchange rates: evidence from recent Asianflu," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 337-354.
    7. Jagdish N. Bhagwati, 1978. "Appendix to "Foreign Trade Regimes and Economic Development: Anatomy and Consequences of Exchange Control Regimes"," NBER Chapters, in: Foreign Trade Regimes and Economic Development: Anatomy and Consequences of Exchange Control Regimes, pages 219-221, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Mete Feridun & Selami Sezgin, 2008. "Regional Underdevelopment And Terrorism: The Case Of South Eastern Turkey," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(3), pages 225-233.
    9. Clemente, Jesus & Montanes, Antonio & Reyes, Marcelo, 1998. "Testing for a unit root in variables with a double change in the mean," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 175-182, May.
    10. repec:bla:kyklos:v:49:y:1996:i:3:p:331-52 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Adams, Samuel, 2009. "Foreign Direct investment, domestic investment, and economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 939-949, November.
    12. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2005. "The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(17), pages 1979-1990.
    13. S. Brock Blomberg & Gregory D. Hess, 2002. "The Temporal Links between Conflict and Economic Activity," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 46(1), pages 74-90, February.
    14. Ismail, Aisha & Amjad, Shehla, 2014. "Determinants of terrorism in Pakistan: An empirical investigation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 320-331.
    15. Ethan Bueno De Mesquita, 2005. "The Quality of Terror," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 49(3), pages 515-530, July.
    16. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
    17. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    18. Abadie, Alberto & Gardeazabal, Javier, 2008. "Terrorism and the world economy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 1-27, January.
    19. Peter C. B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125.
    20. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Shabbir, Muhammad Shahbaz & Malik, Muhammad Nasir & Wolters, Mark Edward, 2013. "An analysis of a causal relationship between economic growth and terrorism in Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 21-29.
    21. Walter Enders & Todd Sandler, 1996. "Terrorism and Foreign Direct Investment in Spain and Greece," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(3), pages 331-352, August.
    22. Fernanda Llussa & Jose Tavares, 2007. "The economics of terrorism: A synopsis," Economics of Peace and Security Journal, EPS Publishing, vol. 2(1), pages 62-70, January.
    23. Jagdish N. Bhagwati, 1978. "Anatomy of Exchange Control Regimes," NBER Chapters, in: Foreign Trade Regimes and Economic Development: Anatomy and Consequences of Exchange Control Regimes, pages 7-52, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Masih, Abul M. M. & Masih, Rumi, 1996. "Energy consumption, real income and temporal causality: results from a multi-country study based on cointegration and error-correction modelling techniques," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 165-183, July.
    25. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema, 2005. "Estimating income and price elasticities of imports for Fiji in a cointegration framework," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 423-438, May.
    26. Jagdish N. Bhagwati, 1978. "Foreign Trade Regimes and Economic Development: Anatomy and Consequences of Exchange Control Regimes," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bhag78-1, June.
    27. Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2013. "Linkages between inflation, economic growth and terrorism in Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 496-506.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Simplice A. Asongu & Jacinta C. Nwachukwu, 2017. "Fuel Exports, Aid and Terrorism," Research Africa Network Working Papers 17/016, Research Africa Network (RAN).
    2. Olunkwa Chidi Ndubuisi & Shobande Olatunji Abdul, 2018. "Capital Flow Components and Industrial Sector Performance in Nigeria," Ovidius University Annals, Economic Sciences Series, Ovidius University of Constantza, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 0(1), pages 48-57, July.
    3. Farah Siddiqui & Danish Ahmed Siddiqui, 2019. "Causality between Tourism and Foreign Direct Investment: An Empirical Evidence from Pakistan," Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 7(1), pages 27-44, March.
    4. Park, Jin Suk & Newaz, Mohammad Khaleq, 2018. "Do terrorist attacks harm financial markets? A meta-analysis of event studies and the determinants of adverse impact," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 227-247.
    5. Mansoor Maitah & Jehar Mustofa & Gok Ugur, 2017. "The Impact of Terrorist Attacks on Foreign Exchange Rate: Case Study of Turkish Lira versus Pound Sterling," Economies, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-8, January.
    6. Muhammad Sibt e Ali & UsmanUllah Khan & Dil Jan & Sabiha Parveen, 2021. "The Relationship between Financial Development and Foreign Direct Investmentand its Impact on Economic Growth ofPakistan," iRASD Journal of Economics, International Research Alliance for Sustainable Development (iRASD), vol. 3(1), pages 27-37, june.
    7. Liu, Ke & Fu, Qiang & Ma, Qing & Ren, Xiang, 2024. "Does geopolitical risk affect exports? Evidence from China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 1558-1569.
    8. Simplice A. Asongu & Jacinta C. Nwachukwu, 2016. "Conditional linkages between iron ore exports, foreign aid and terrorism," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 29(2), pages 57-70, December.
    9. Asongu, Simplice, 2019. "Natural Resource Exports, Foreign Aid and Terrorism," International Journal of Development and Conflict, Gokhale Institute of Politics and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 74-94.
    10. Umer Shahzad & Fengming Qin, 2019. "New Terrorism and Capital Flight: Pre and Post Nine Eleven analysis for Asia," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 20(1), pages 465-487, May.
    11. Destek, Mehmet Akif & Manga, Müge & Cengiz, Orhan & Destek, Gamze, 2022. "Investigating the potential of renewable energy in establishing global peace: Fresh evidence from top energy consumer countries," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 197(C), pages 170-177.
    12. Muhammad Athar Nadeem & Zhiying Liu & Haji Suleman Ali & Amna Younis & Muhammad Bilal & Yi Xu, 2020. "Innovation and Sustainable Development: Does Aid and Political Instability Impede Innovation?," SAGE Open, , vol. 10(4), pages 21582440209, November.
    13. Simplice Asongu & John Ssozi, 2017. "When is Foreign Aid Effective in Fighting Terrorism? Threshold Evidence," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(3), pages 370-389, July.
    14. Udi Joshua & Mathew Ekundayo Rotimi & Samuel Asumadu Sarkodie, 2020. "Global FDI Inflow and Its Implication across Economic Income Groups," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-15, November.
    15. Simplice Asongu & Oasis Kodila-Tedika, 2017. "Trade, aid and terror," International Journal of Development Issues, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 16(1), pages 2-24, April.
    16. Riazullah Shinwari & Imran Zakeria & Muhammad Usman & Muhammad Sadiq, 2024. "Revisiting the Relationship Between FDI, Natural Resources, and Economic Growth in Afghanistan: Does Political (in) Stability Matter?," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 15(2), pages 5174-5203, June.
    17. Metaxas, Theodore & Kechagia, Polyxeni, 2017. "FDI and Terrorism in developing Asia: Approaches and Discussion," MPRA Paper 78165, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Mengmeng Hao & Jingying Fu & Dong Jiang & Fangyu Ding & Shuai Chen, 2020. "Simulating the Linkages Between Economy and Armed Conflict in India With a Long Short‐Term Memory Algorithm," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(6), pages 1139-1150, June.
    19. Polyxeni, Kechagia & Theodore, Metaxas, 2019. "An empirical investigation of FDI inflows in developing economies: Terrorism as a determinant factor," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
    20. Venancio Tauringana & Ishmael Tingbani & Godwin Okafor & Widin B. Sha'ven, 2021. "Terrorism and global business performance," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 5636-5658, October.
    21. Assad Ullah & Yang Qingxiang & Zahid Ali & Nadia Hidayat, 2016. "Exploring the Relationship between Country Risk and Foreign Private Investment Inflows in Pakistan," Review of Market Integration, India Development Foundation, vol. 8(3), pages 113-134, December.
    22. Asongu, Simplice, 2019. "Natural Resource Exports, Foreign Aid and Terrorism," International Journal of Development and Conflict, Gokhale Institute of Politics and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 74-94.
    23. Yilmaz Bayar & Marius Dan Gavriletea, 2018. "Peace, terrorism and economic growth in Middle East and North African countries," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 52(5), pages 2373-2392, September.
    24. Shahzad, Umer & Sarwar, Suleman & Farooq, Muhammad Umar & Qin, Fengming, 2020. "USAID, official development assistance and counter terrorism efforts: Pre and post 9/11 analysis for South Asia," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    25. Serfraz, Ayesha, 2017. "What is the effect of foreign direct investment inflows on economic growth in Pakistan? An empirical analysis in the light of religious sectarianism as catalyst for terrorism," ZÖSS-Discussion Papers 59, University of Hamburg, Centre for Economic and Sociological Studies (CESS/ZÖSS).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Shabbir, Muhammad Shahbaz & Malik, Muhammad Nasir & Wolters, Mark Edward, 2013. "An analysis of a causal relationship between economic growth and terrorism in Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 21-29.
    2. Assad Ullah & Yang Qingxiang & Zahid Ali & Nadia Hidayat, 2016. "Exploring the Relationship between Country Risk and Foreign Private Investment Inflows in Pakistan," Review of Market Integration, India Development Foundation, vol. 8(3), pages 113-134, December.
    3. Bukhari, Naseem & Masih, Mansur, 2016. "An empirical investigation of causal linkages between domestic terrorism and macroeconomic variables: a case for Pakistan," MPRA Paper 69768, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Muhammad Shahbaz & Pervaz Azim & Khalil Ahmad, 2011. "Exports-Led Growth Hypothesis in Pakistan: Further Evidence," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 1(3), pages 182-197.
    5. Chen, George S. & Yao, Yao & Malizard, Julien, 2017. "Does foreign direct investment crowd in or crowd out private domestic investment in China? The effect of entry mode," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 409-419.
    6. Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2012. "Does trade openness affect long run growth? Cointegration, causality and forecast error variance decomposition tests for Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2325-2339.
    7. Friedrich Schneider & Tilman Brück & Daniel Meierrieks, 2010. "The Economics of Terrorism and Counter-Terrorism: A Survey (Part II)," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1050, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    8. Mohamed, Hassen & Ben Jebli, Mehdi & Ben Youssef, Slim, 2019. "Renewable and fossil energy, terrorism, economic growth, and trade: Evidence from France," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 459-467.
    9. Vinish Kathuria, 2019. "Growth and Investment: Testing for the Relationship for South Asian Countries," Millennial Asia, , vol. 10(3), pages 337-371, December.
    10. Fırat Bilgel & Burhan Can Karahasan, 2017. "The Economic Costs of Separatist Terrorism in Turkey," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 61(2), pages 457-479, February.
    11. Muhammad Shahbaz & Amatul Razzaq Chaudhary & Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad, 2020. "Is energy consumption sensitive to foreign capital inflows and currency devaluation in Pakistan?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(52), pages 5641-5658, June.
    12. Ang, James B., 2007. "CO2 emissions, energy consumption, and output in France," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 4772-4778, October.
    13. Muhammad, Shahbaz & Muhammad, Nasir Malik & Muhammad, Shahbaz Shabbir, 2011. "Does economic growth cause terrorism in Pakistan?," MPRA Paper 35101, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 30 Nov 2011.
    14. Tim Krieger & Daniel Meierrieks, 2011. "What causes terrorism?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 147(1), pages 3-27, April.
    15. Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Kumar, Ronald Ravinesh & Zakaria, Muhammad & Hurr, Maryam, 2017. "Carbon emission, energy consumption, trade openness and financial development in Pakistan: A revisit," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 185-192.
    16. Halicioglu, Ferda, 2009. "An econometric study of CO2 emissions, energy consumption, income and foreign trade in Turkey," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1156-1164, March.
    17. Mallick, Hrushikesh & Mahalik, Mantu Kumar & Sahoo, Manoranjan, 2018. "Is crude oil price detrimental to domestic private investment for an emerging economy? The role of public sector investment and financial sector development in an era of globalization," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 307-324.
    18. Mohamed, Hassen & Alimi, Mohsen & Ben Youssef, Slim, 2021. "The role of renewable energy in reducing terrorism: Evidence from Pakistan," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 1088-1100.
    19. Mohamed Maher & Yanzhi Zhao, 2022. "Do Political Instability and Military Expenditure Undermine Economic Growth in Egypt? Evidence from the ARDL Approach," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(8), pages 956-979, November.
    20. Sugra Humbatova & Afag Huseyn & Natig Gadim-Oglu Hajiyev, 2023. "Impact of Oil Factor on Investment: The Case of Azerbaijan," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(2), pages 129-148, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    FDI; Terrorism; Economic growth; Cointegration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:soinre:v:127:y:2016:i:1:d:10.1007_s11205-015-0950-5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.