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Fewer babies and more robots: economic growth in a new era of demographic and technological changes

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  • Juan F. Jimeno

    (Banco de España
    CEPR
    IZA)

Abstract

This paper surveys recent research on the macroeconomic implications of demographic and technological changes. Lower fertility and increasing longevity have implications on the age population structure and, therefore, on the balance between savings and investment. Jointly with meagre productivity growth, this implies a low natural rate of interest that conditions the effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policies, especially in a world of high debt. New technological changes (robots, artificial intelligence, automation) may increase productivity growth but at the risk of having disruptive effects on employment and wages. The survey highlights the main mechanism by which demographic and technological changes, considered both individually and in conjunction, affect per capita growth and other macroeconomic variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan F. Jimeno, 2019. "Fewer babies and more robots: economic growth in a new era of demographic and technological changes," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 93-114, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:series:v:10:y:2019:i:2:d:10.1007_s13209-019-0190-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s13209-019-0190-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Pablo Casas & José L. Torres, 2024. "Government size and automation," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 31(3), pages 780-807, June.
    3. Chen, Pengyu & Chu, Zhongzhu & Zhao, Miao, 2024. "The Road to corporate sustainability: The importance of artificial intelligence," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    4. Margarita Velín-Fárez, 2021. "Population and Labor Dynamics in Large Informal Markets: Implications for Pension Systems with Evidence from Ecuador," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 15(2), April.
    5. Casas, Pablo & Román, Concepción, 2023. "Early retired or automatized? Evidence from the survey of health, ageing and retirement in Europe," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
    6. Zhu, Jun & Zhang, Jingting & Feng, Yiqing, 2022. "Hard budget constraints and artificial intelligence technology," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    7. Challe, Edouard & Matvieiev, Mykhailo, 2024. "On natural interest rate volatility," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    8. Pablo Casas & Concepción Román, 2024. "The impact of artificial intelligence in the early retirement decision," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 51(3), pages 583-618, August.
    9. Chen, Yang & Cheng, Liang & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2022. "How does the use of industrial robots affect the ecological footprint? International evidence," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Population ageing; Technological progress; Innovation; Automation; Economic growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

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