IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/scient/v47y2000i2d10.1023_a1005647328460.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

On Growth, Ageing, and Fractal Differentiation of Science

Author

Listed:
  • Anthony F. J. van Raan

    (University of Leiden)

Abstract

On the basis of the measured time-dependent distribution of references in recent scientific publications, we formulate a novel model on the ageing of recent scientific literature. The framework of this model is given by a basic set of mathematical expressions that allows us to understand and describe large-scale growth and ageing processes in science over a long period of time. In addition, a further and striking consequence results in a self- consistent way from our model. After the Scientific Revolution in 16th century Europe, the 'Scientific Evolution' begins, and the driving processes growth and ageing unavoidably lead - just as in our biological evolution - to a fractal differentiation of science. A fractal structure means a system build up with sub-systems characterised by a power-law size distribution. Such a distribution implies that there is no preference of size or scale. Often this phenomenon is regarded as a fingerprint of self-organisation. These findings are in agreement with earlier empirical findings concerning the clustering of scientific literature. Our observations reinforce the idea of science as a complex, largely self-organising 'cognitive eco-system'. They also refute Kuhn's paradigm model of scientific development.

Suggested Citation

  • Anthony F. J. van Raan, 2000. "On Growth, Ageing, and Fractal Differentiation of Science," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 47(2), pages 347-362, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:scient:v:47:y:2000:i:2:d:10.1023_a:1005647328460
    DOI: 10.1023/A:1005647328460
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1023/A:1005647328460
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1023/A:1005647328460?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Youngki Lee & Luis A. N. Amaral & David Canning & Martin Meyer & H. Eugene Stanley, 1998. "Universal features in the growth dynamics of complex organizations," Papers cond-mat/9804100, arXiv.org.
    2. Vasiliki Plerou & Luís A. Nunes Amaral & Parameswaran Gopikrishnan & Martin Meyer & H. Eugene Stanley, 1999. "Similarities between the growth dynamics of university research and of competitive economic activities," Nature, Nature, vol. 400(6743), pages 433-437, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hernan Mondani & Petter Holme & Fredrik Liljeros, 2014. "Fat-Tailed Fluctuations in the Size of Organizations: The Role of Social Influence," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(7), pages 1-9, July.
    2. Amaral, L.A.N. & Gopikrishnan, P. & Plerou, V. & Stanley, H.E., 2001. "A model for the growth dynamics of economic organizations," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 299(1), pages 127-136.
    3. Stanley, H.E. & Gabaix, Xavier & Gopikrishnan, Parameswaran & Plerou, Vasiliki, 2007. "Economic fluctuations and statistical physics: Quantifying extremely rare and less rare events in finance," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 382(1), pages 286-301.
    4. Stanley, H.E & Amaral, L.A.N & Gopikrishnan, P & Ivanov, P.Ch & Keitt, T.H & Plerou, V, 2000. "Scale invariance and universality: organizing principles in complex systems," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 281(1), pages 60-68.
    5. Pierpaolo Andriani & Bill McKelvey, 2009. "Perspective ---From Gaussian to Paretian Thinking: Causes and Implications of Power Laws in Organizations," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 20(6), pages 1053-1071, December.
    6. Frank Havemann & Michael Heinz & Roland Wagner-Döbler, 2004. "Growth dynamics of German university enrolments and of scientific disciplines in the 19th century: Scaling behaviour under weak competitive pressure," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 60(3), pages 283-294, August.
    7. Sutton, John, 2002. "The variance of firm growth rates: the ‘scaling’ puzzle," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 312(3), pages 577-590.
    8. Stanley, H. Eugene & Plerou, Vasiliki & Gabaix, Xavier, 2008. "A statistical physics view of financial fluctuations: Evidence for scaling and universality," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(15), pages 3967-3981.
    9. Stanley, H.E & Amaral, L.A.N & Gopikrishnan, P & Plerou, V, 2000. "Scale invariance and universality of economic fluctuations," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 283(1), pages 31-41.
    10. Luis A. N. Amaral & P. Gopikrishnan & Kaushik Matia & Vasiliki Plerou & H. E. Stanley, 2001. "Application of statistical physics methods and conceptsto the study of science & technology systems," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 51(1), pages 9-36, April.
    11. Stanley, H.Eugene, 2000. "Exotic statistical physics: Applications to biology, medicine, and economics," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 285(1), pages 1-17.
    12. Stanley, H.E. & Gopikrishnan, P. & Plerou, V. & Amaral, L.A.N., 2000. "Quantifying fluctuations in economic systems by adapting methods of statistical physics," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 287(3), pages 339-361.
    13. Calabrese, Armando & Capece, Guendalina & Costa, Roberta & Di Pillo, Francesca & Giuffrida, Stefania, 2018. "A ‘power law’ based method to reduce size-related bias in indicators of knowledge performance: An application to university research assessment," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 1263-1281.
    14. Misako Takayasu & Hayafumi Watanabe & Hideki Takayasu, 2013. "Generalised central limit theorems for growth rate distribution of complex systems," Papers 1301.2728, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2014.
    15. Stanley, H.Eugene, 2003. "Statistical physics and economic fluctuations: do outliers exist?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 318(1), pages 279-292.
    16. Stanley, H.E. & Amaral, L.A.N. & Gabaix, X. & Gopikrishnan, P. & Plerou, V., 2001. "Similarities and differences between physics and economics," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 299(1), pages 1-15.
    17. Suzuki, Tomoya & Ikeguchi, Tohru & Suzuki, Masuo, 2004. "A model of complex behavior of interbank exchange markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 337(1), pages 196-218.
    18. Xie, Wen-Jie & Gu, Gao-Feng & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2010. "On the growth of primary industry and population of China’s counties," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(18), pages 3876-3882.
    19. Mercedes Campi & Marco Due~nas & Le Li & Huabin Wu, 2018. "Diversification, economies of scope, and exports growth of Chinese firms," Papers 1801.02681, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2018.
    20. Hazem Krichene & Abhijit Chakraborty & Hiroyasu Inoue & Yoshi Fujiwara, 2017. "Business cycles’ correlation and systemic risk of the Japanese supplier-customer network," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(10), pages 1-22, October.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:scient:v:47:y:2000:i:2:d:10.1023_a:1005647328460. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.