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Will the increase in publication volumes “dilute” prestigious journals’ impact factors? A trend analysis of the FT50 journals

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  • Tenghao Zhang

    (Edith Cowan University)

Abstract

In the wake of the unprecedented global scientific output boom, are top-tier journals such as the FT50 journals following suit? If these prestigious journals consistently increase their publication volumes, will their impact factors be affected? Drawing on the Mann–Kendall trend test method, this study analysed time series trends of the FT50 journals’ annual publication volumes and impact factor ratios (IFR) over a 15 year period. The results indicate that half of the FT50 journals have consistently increased their publication volumes over the years. Although to increase publication volumes is riskier than to stay put, it has a significantly higher probability of increasing the IFR, and therefore keeping pace with other top journals. However, the expanding of publication volumes must be carried out cautiously, as the study also finds that growing too fast may lead to opposite effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Tenghao Zhang, 2021. "Will the increase in publication volumes “dilute” prestigious journals’ impact factors? A trend analysis of the FT50 journals," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 126(1), pages 863-869, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:scient:v:126:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s11192-020-03736-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s11192-020-03736-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Qinchang Gui & Chengliang Liu & Debin Du & Dezhong Duan, 2019. "The changing geography of global science," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 51(8), pages 1615-1617, November.
    2. Demir, Selcuk Besir, 2018. "Predatory journals: Who publishes in them and why?," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 1296-1311.
    3. Sujit Bhattacharya & Shilpa & Arshia Kaul, 2015. "Emerging countries assertion in the global publication landscape of science: a case study of India," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 103(2), pages 387-411, May.
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    2. Mario Fernandes & Andreas Walter, 2022. "Publication Behavior in Different Fields of Business Administration: From Anecdotal to Empirical Evidence," Schmalenbach Journal of Business Research, Springer, vol. 74(3), pages 265-306, September.

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