IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/scient/v115y2018i3d10.1007_s11192-018-2728-4.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Time series-based bibliometric analysis of the dynamics of scientific production

Author

Listed:
  • Sonia E. Monroy

    (Universidad Nacional de Colombia)

  • Hernando Diaz

    (Universidad Nacional de Colombia)

Abstract

We make a comparative study of the dynamics of scientific production for several countries, in terms of papers published, applying time series tools to bibliometric data. The histories of scientific development of groups of countries are compared, seeking to understand the causes and circumstances that led to some dynamic response. We were able to identify dynamical changes that affected global scientific production. Our analysis identified instances where global production was influenced by social, political and economic circumstances. The role of the most productive countries in the current dynamics of knowledge production is also studied. We obtained a vector auto regressive model that describes their joint influences. Thus, the effect of changes in the production of one country on the production of the others can be assessed. The results indicate that the USA and the United Kingdom are still the most influential countries in science, despite the fast growth of China’s production.

Suggested Citation

  • Sonia E. Monroy & Hernando Diaz, 2018. "Time series-based bibliometric analysis of the dynamics of scientific production," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 115(3), pages 1139-1159, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:scient:v:115:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s11192-018-2728-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s11192-018-2728-4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11192-018-2728-4
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11192-018-2728-4?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael Mabe & Mayur Amin, 2001. "Growth dynamics of scholarly and scientific journals," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 51(1), pages 147-162, April.
    2. Sampat, Bhaven N., 2012. "Mission-oriented biomedical research at the NIH," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(10), pages 1729-1741.
    3. Lutz Bornmann & Rüdiger Mutz, 2015. "Growth rates of modern science: A bibliometric analysis based on the number of publications and cited references," Journal of the Association for Information Science & Technology, Association for Information Science & Technology, vol. 66(11), pages 2215-2222, November.
    4. Mariana Mazzucato, 2015. "The Green Entrepreneurial State," SPRU Working Paper Series 2015-28, SPRU - Science Policy Research Unit, University of Sussex Business School.
    5. Foray, D. & Mowery, D.C. & Nelson, R.R., 2012. "Public R&D and social challenges: What lessons from mission R&D programs?," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(10), pages 1697-1702.
    6. Wright, Brian D., 2012. "Grand missions of agricultural innovation," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(10), pages 1716-1728.
    7. Loet Leydesdorff & Ismael Rafols, 2009. "A global map of science based on the ISI subject categories," Journal of the American Society for Information Science and Technology, Association for Information Science & Technology, vol. 60(2), pages 348-362, February.
    8. Loet Leydesdorff, 2013. "Statistics for the dynamic analysis of scientometric data: the evolution of the sciences in terms of trajectories and regimes," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 96(3), pages 731-741, September.
    9. World Bank, 2017. "World Development Indicators 2017," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 26447.
    10. Zhou, Ping & Leydesdorff, Loet, 2006. "The emergence of China as a leading nation in science," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 83-104, February.
    11. Peder Olesen Larsen & Markus Ins, 2010. "The rate of growth in scientific publication and the decline in coverage provided by Science Citation Index," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 84(3), pages 575-603, September.
    12. Ping Zhou & Bart Thijs & Wolfgang Glänzel, 2009. "Regional analysis on Chinese scientific output," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 81(3), pages 839-857, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. María Pinto & Rosaura Fernández-Pascual & David Caballero-Mariscal & Dora Sales, 2020. "Information literacy trends in higher education (2006–2019): visualizing the emerging field of mobile information literacy," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 124(2), pages 1479-1510, August.
    2. Chatterjee, Riti, 2024. "How state governance can offer a new paradigm to energy transition in Indian agriculture?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    3. Hans Pohl, 2020. "Collaboration with countries with rapidly growing research: supporting proactive development of international research collaboration," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 122(1), pages 287-307, January.
    4. Abhimanyu Sud & Darren K. Cheng & Rahim Moineddin & Erin Zlahtic & Ross Upshur, 2021. "Time series-based bibliometric analysis of a systematic review of multidisciplinary care for opioid dose reduction: exploring the origins of the North American opioid crisis," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 126(11), pages 8935-8955, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mariana Mazzucato, 2015. "From Market Fixing to Market-Creating: A New Framework for Economic Policy," SPRU Working Paper Series 2015-25, SPRU - Science Policy Research Unit, University of Sussex Business School.
    2. Robinson, Douglas K.R. & Mazzucato, Mariana, 2019. "The evolution of mission-oriented policies: Exploring changing market creating policies in the US and European space sector," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 936-948.
    3. Kuan, Jennifer & West, Joel, 2023. "Interfaces, modularity and ecosystem emergence: How DARPA modularized the semiconductor ecosystem," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(8).
    4. Feng Li & Yong Yi & Xiaolong Guo & Wei Qi, 2012. "Performance evaluation of research universities in Mainland China, Hong Kong and Taiwan: based on a two-dimensional approach," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 90(2), pages 531-542, February.
    5. Ruhua Huang & Yuting Huang & Fan Qi & Leyi Shi & Baiyang Li & Wei Yu, 2022. "Exploring the characteristics of special issues: distribution, topicality, and citation impact," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 127(9), pages 5233-5256, September.
    6. Soo Jeung Lee & Christian Schneijderberg & Yangson Kim & Isabel Steinhardt, 2021. "Have Academics’ Citation Patterns Changed in Response to the Rise of World University Rankings? A Test Using First-Citation Speeds," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-19, August.
    7. Mariana Mazzucato & Caetano C.R. Penna, 2016. "Beyond market failures: the market creating and shaping roles of state investment banks," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 19(4), pages 305-326, October.
    8. Xin Gu & Karen Blackmore, 2017. "Quantitative study on Australian academic science," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 113(2), pages 1009-1035, November.
    9. Anna Tietze & Philip Hofmann, 2019. "The h-index and multi-author hm-index for individual researchers in condensed matter physics," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 119(1), pages 171-185, April.
    10. Joseph Pozsgai-Alvarez & Iván Pastor Sanz, 2021. "Mapping the (anti-)corruption field: key topics and changing trends, 1968–2020," Journal of Computational Social Science, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 851-881, November.
    11. Andreas Rehs, 2020. "A structural topic model approach to scientific reorientation of economics and chemistry after German reunification," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 125(2), pages 1229-1251, November.
    12. Yang Liu & Jinyuan Ma & Huanyu Song & Ziniu Qian & Xiao Lin, 2021. "Chinese Universities’ Cross-Border Research Collaboration in the Social Sciences and Its Impact," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-19, September.
    13. Saad Ahmed Javed & Sifeng Liu, 2018. "Predicting the research output/growth of selected countries: application of Even GM (1, 1) and NDGM models," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 115(1), pages 395-413, April.
    14. Jianchoun Dou, 2021. "Variety, Fertility, and Long-term Economic Growth," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2021020, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    15. Bar-Ilan, Judit, 2008. "Informetrics at the beginning of the 21st century—A review," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 1-52.
    16. Ricardo Arencibia-Jorge & Rosa Lidia Vega-Almeida & José Luis Jiménez-Andrade & Humberto Carrillo-Calvet, 2022. "Evolutionary stages and multidisciplinary nature of artificial intelligence research," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 127(9), pages 5139-5158, September.
    17. Mazzucato, Mariana & Semieniuk, Gregor, 2018. "Financing renewable energy: Who is financing what and why it matters," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 8-22.
    18. Maria Karaulova & Abdullah Gök & Oliver Shackleton & Philip Shapira, 2016. "Science system path-dependencies and their influences: nanotechnology research in Russia," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 107(2), pages 645-670, May.
    19. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/401t6job098n79ch91o9giov9d is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Ksenia Silchenko, 2018. "The other "meta" of meta-analysis: Qualitative and text-based approaches to "analysis of analyses" in marketing," MERCATI & COMPETITIVIT?, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2018(4), pages 27-45.
    21. Darío Vázquez, 2020. "Variety patterns in defense and health technological systems: evidence from international trade data," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 30(4), pages 949-988, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:scient:v:115:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s11192-018-2728-4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.