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Housing construction in the Moscow agglomeration: Spatial equilibrium modeling

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  • N. K. Kurichev

    (Russian Academy of Sciences)

Abstract

In conditions of intense spatial transformation of the Moscow agglomeration (MA) driven by housing construction and migration from Russian regions, study of how these processes are interrelated has become an urgent task. In the article a new model of spatial equilibrium in MA is developed. Model includes three blocks: (1) a spatial equilibrium model for the labor and housing markets in the MA; (2) a model of dynamic equilibrium between migration and housing construction in the MA; (3) a model of housing construction distribution by zones of the MA. In block 1, for three zones of the MA (the central business district, urban zone, and zone of new construction) the equilibrium values of population, employment, and wages are determined with allowance for commuting. In block 2, equilibrium is determined between the migration level and housing construction in the MA, which replicates the gap in real incomes between the MA and other Russian regions. Deviation from equilibrium leads to an adjustment of incentives for migration and a change in its level restores equilibrium. In block 3, it is shown that the behavior of developers owing to land price adjustment determines the location of construction by the MA zones. Despite the generic nature of the model, it is able to reproduce a number of trends in the spatial evolution of the MA, including the transition from an extensive stage of development with sprawling construction and hyperdensity of the center to an intense stage with in-depth development of the main “body” of the city. The model stresses how tightly related the processes in the largest agglomeration of the country and the national settlement system are. The model shows how the political and economic processes, via changes in rent and agglomeration economies, change incentives for work, living, and housing construction in different zones of the agglomeration and determine the fate of urban territories. The model also describes the influence of the internal structure of the MA on interregional migration. By increasing construction, especially of affordable housing in greenfield projects at the periphery of the agglomeration, the city implicitly accepts a decision to increase migration affecting Russia’s national settlement system.

Suggested Citation

  • N. K. Kurichev, 2017. "Housing construction in the Moscow agglomeration: Spatial equilibrium modeling," Regional Research of Russia, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 23-35, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:rrorus:v:7:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1134_s207997051701004x
    DOI: 10.1134/S207997051701004X
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Duranton, Gilles & Puga, Diego, 2015. "Urban Land Use," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: Gilles Duranton & J. V. Henderson & William C. Strange (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 467-560, Elsevier.
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    6. Glaeser, Edward L., 2008. "Cities, Agglomeration, and Spatial Equilibrium," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199290444.
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    Cited by:

    1. S. S. Lachininskii & I. A. Logvinov & I. S. Sorokin, 2024. "Modern Methods for Studying the Spatial Structure of Urban Agglomerations (a Case Study of the St. Petersburg Urban Agglomeration)," Regional Research of Russia, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 170-180, June.
    2. Zakharov, Konstantin & Mizgajski, Andrzej, 2024. "Socioeconomic and political settings for the land development decreasing urban green. Inside view from Moscow," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    3. L. B. Karachurina & N. V. Mkrtchyan & M. S. Savoskul, 2022. "New Data on Population Migration in Russia: a Challenge for Researchers?," Regional Research of Russia, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 51-66, March.
    4. T. G. Nefedova, 2018. "The Moscow Suburbs: Specifics and Spatial Development of Rural Areas," Regional Research of Russia, Springer, vol. 8(3), pages 225-237, July.
    5. R. A. Babkin, 2024. "Review of Russian Approaches to Assessing Commuting Labor Migration," Regional Research of Russia, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 160-169, June.
    6. Nikolay Kurichev & Ekaterina Kuricheva, 2020. "Interregional migration, the housing market, and a spatial shift in the metro area: Interrelationships in the case study of Moscow," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(4), pages 689-703, August.
    7. N. K. Kurichev, 2022. "Spatial Equilibrium? The Difference of Real Income, Housing Markets, and Migration Flows between Russian Cities," Regional Research of Russia, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 215-226, June.

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