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A Spatial Economic Model and Spatial Econometric Analysis of Population Dynamics in Brazilian MCAs

Author

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  • Paul Elhorst
  • Diego Firmino Costa da Silva
  • Raul da Mota Silveira Neto

Abstract

To extend existing population growth models, this article proposes a theoretical setting including spatial interaction effects. Using data pertaining to 3659 Brazilian Minimum Comparable Areas (MCA) over the period 1970-2010, this extension is tested by estimating a dynamic spatial panel model. The authors also compare the performance of a wide range of potential neighborhood matrices using Bayesian posterior model probabilities. Six of the thirteen determinants of population growth considered produce significant spatial interaction effects. Moreover, five produce significant long-term spatial spillover effects; a mathematical analysis reveals the strength of this result, which requires more than a single parameter. Treating areas as independent entities, as many previous population growth studies have done, underestimates the impact of various policy measures.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Elhorst & Diego Firmino Costa da Silva & Raul da Mota Silveira Neto, 2015. "A Spatial Economic Model and Spatial Econometric Analysis of Population Dynamics in Brazilian MCAs," ERSA conference papers ersa15p83, European Regional Science Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa15p83
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    2. Jerome Segura III, 2017. "The effect of state and local taxes on economic growth: A spatial dynamic panel approach," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 96(3), pages 627-645, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Population growth; spatial interaction and spillovers; dynamics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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