IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/reaccs/v27y2022i1d10.1007_s11142-021-09593-w.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Earnings announcement return extrapolation

Author

Listed:
  • Aytekin Ertan

    (London Business School)

  • Stephen A. Karolyi

    (Carnegie Mellon University)

  • Peter W. Kelly

    (University of Notre Dame)

  • Robert Stoumbos

    (Columbia University)

Abstract

We propose that extrapolative beliefs about earnings announcement (EA) returns may contribute to the understanding of EA return patterns. We construct a theoretically motivated measure of extrapolative investors’ expectations based on a stock’s recent history of EA returns. We then show that this measure explains cross-sectional variation in stock returns and investor behavior around EAs. Stocks expected to have high EA returns, according to our measure, experience predictable increases in prices before EAs and predictable decreases afterward. These patterns are economically significant: investors that buy (sell) a portfolio that is long firms with high recent EA returns and short firms with low recent EA returns in the pre-EA (post-EA) period earn daily five-factor abnormal returns of 16.1 bps (18.3 bps). Using individual investor trades data and a measure of institutional trading, we find that individual and institutional investors are more likely to purchase stocks with high recent EA returns, consistent with at least a subset of investors forming extrapolative beliefs about EA returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Aytekin Ertan & Stephen A. Karolyi & Peter W. Kelly & Robert Stoumbos, 2022. "Earnings announcement return extrapolation," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 185-230, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:reaccs:v:27:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1007_s11142-021-09593-w
    DOI: 10.1007/s11142-021-09593-w
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11142-021-09593-w
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11142-021-09593-w?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Henk Berkman & Cameron Truong, 2009. "Event Day 0? After‐Hours Earnings Announcements," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(1), pages 71-103, March.
    2. Lee, Charles M C & Mucklow, Belinda & Ready, Mark J, 1993. "Spreads, Depths, and the Impact of Earnings Information: An Intraday Analysis," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(2), pages 345-374.
    3. Daniel Bradley & Jonathan Clarke & Suzanne Lee & Chayawat Ornthanalai, 2014. "Are Analysts’ Recommendations Informative? Intraday Evidence on the Impact of Time Stamp Delays," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(2), pages 645-673, April.
    4. Beaver, Wh, 1968. "Information Content Of Annual Earnings Announcements," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6, pages 67-92.
    5. Lou, Dong & Polk, Christopher & Skouras, Spyros, 2019. "A tug of war: Overnight versus intraday expected returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(1), pages 192-213.
    6. Stefano Cassella & Huseyin Gulen, 2018. "Extrapolation Bias and the Predictability of Stock Returns by Price-Scaled Variables," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(11), pages 4345-4397.
    7. Berkman, Henk & Koch, Paul D. & Tuttle, Laura & Zhang, Ying Jenny, 2012. "Paying Attention: Overnight Returns and the Hidden Cost of Buying at the Open," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 47(4), pages 715-741, August.
    8. Barberis, Nicholas & Thaler, Richard, 2003. "A survey of behavioral finance," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 18, pages 1053-1128, Elsevier.
    9. Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, 2000. "Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 773-806, April.
    10. Patell, James M. & Wolfson, Mark A., 1979. "Anticipated information releases reflected in call option prices," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 117-140, August.
    11. Travis L. Johnson & Eric C. So, 2018. "Asymmetric Trading Costs Prior to Earnings Announcements: Implications for Price Discovery and Returns," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(1), pages 217-263, March.
    12. Jonathan A. Milian, 2015. "Unsophisticated Arbitrageurs and Market Efficiency: Overreacting to a History of Underreaction?," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(1), pages 175-220, March.
    13. Samuel M. Hartzmark, 2015. "The Worst, the Best, Ignoring All the Rest: The Rank Effect and Trading Behavior," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(4), pages 1024-1059.
    14. Barberis, Nicholas & Greenwood, Robin & Jin, Lawrence & Shleifer, Andrei, 2018. "Extrapolation and bubbles," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(2), pages 203-227.
    15. Joseph Engelberg & R. David Mclean & Jeffrey Pontiff, 2018. "Anomalies and News," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 73(5), pages 1971-2001, October.
    16. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:5:p:1775-1798 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Almazan, Andres & Brown, Keith C. & Carlson, Murray & Chapman, David A., 2004. "Why constrain your mutual fund manager?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 289-321, August.
    18. Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, 2008. "All That Glitters: The Effect of Attention and News on the Buying Behavior of Individual and Institutional Investors," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(2), pages 785-818, April.
    19. Joseph E. Engelberg & Christopher A. Parsons, 2011. "The Causal Impact of Media in Financial Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(1), pages 67-97, February.
    20. Aboody, David & Even-Tov, Omri & Lehavy, Reuven & Trueman, Brett, 2018. "Overnight Returns and Firm-Specific Investor Sentiment," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(2), pages 485-505, April.
    21. Ron Kaniel & Shuming Liu & Gideon Saar & Sheridan Titman, 2012. "Individual Investor Trading and Return Patterns around Earnings Announcements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(2), pages 639-680, April.
    22. Cohen, Daniel A. & Dey, Aiyesha & Lys, Thomas Z. & Sunder, Shyam V., 2007. "Earnings announcement premia and the limits to arbitrage," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2-3), pages 153-180, July.
    23. Barber, Brad M. & De George, Emmanuel T. & Lehavy, Reuven & Trueman, Brett, 2013. "The earnings announcement premium around the globe," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 118-138.
    24. Karolyi, G. Andrew & Lee, Kuan-Hui & van Dijk, Mathijs A., 2012. "Understanding commonality in liquidity around the world," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 82-112.
    25. Krinsky, Itzhak & Lee, Jason, 1996. "Earnings Announcements and the Components of the Bid-Ask Spread," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1523-1535, September.
    26. Elizabeth Blankespoor & Ed Dehaan & John Wertz & Christina Zhu, 2019. "Why Do Individual Investors Disregard Accounting Information? The Roles of Information Awareness and Acquisition Costs," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(1), pages 53-84, March.
    27. Robin Greenwood & Andrei Shleifer, 2014. "Expectations of Returns and Expected Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(3), pages 714-746.
    28. Ball, R & Brown, P, 1968. "Empirical Evaluation Of Accounting Income Numbers," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(2), pages 159-178.
    29. John M. Griffin & Patrick J. Kelly & Federico Nardari, 2010. "Do Market Efficiency Measures Yield Correct Inferences? A Comparison of Developed and Emerging Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(8), pages 3225-3277, August.
    30. Stefano Dellavigna & Joshua M. Pollet, 2009. "Investor Inattention and Friday Earnings Announcements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(2), pages 709-749, April.
    31. Ozgur S. Ince & R. Burt Porter, 2006. "Individual Equity Return Data From Thomson Datastream: Handle With Care!," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 29(4), pages 463-479, December.
    32. Frieder, Laura, 2008. "Investor and price response to patterns in earnings surprises," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 259-283, August.
    33. So, Eric C. & Wang, Sean, 2014. "News-driven return reversals: Liquidity provision ahead of earnings announcements," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(1), pages 20-35.
    34. J. Anthony Cookson & Marina Niessner, 2020. "Why Don't We Agree? Evidence from a Social Network of Investors," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(1), pages 173-228, February.
    35. Roni Michaely & Amir Rubin & Alexander Vedrashko, 2014. "Corporate Governance and the Timing of Earnings Announcements," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 18(6), pages 2003-2044.
    36. David Hirshleifer & Sonya Seongyeon Lim & Siew Hong Teoh, 2009. "Driven to Distraction: Extraneous Events and Underreaction to Earnings News," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(5), pages 2289-2325, October.
    37. I. Krinsky & J. Lee, 1996. "Earning Announcements and the Components of the Bid-Ask Aspread," Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population Research Reports 313, McMaster University.
    38. Michaely, Roni & Rubin, Amir & Vedrashko, Alexander, 2016. "Further evidence on the strategic timing of earnings news: Joint analysis of weekdays and times of day," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 24-45.
    39. Owen Lamont & Andrea Frazzini, 2007. "The Earnings Announcement Premium and Trading Volume," NBER Working Papers 13090, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Blankespoor, Elizabeth & deHaan, Ed & Marinovic, Iván, 2020. "Disclosure processing costs, investors’ information choice, and equity market outcomes: A review," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2).
    2. Samuel M. Hartzmark & Kelly Shue, 2017. "A Tough Act to Follow: Contrast Effects In Financial Markets," NBER Working Papers 23883, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. repec:grz:wpsses:2020-04 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Liu, Bibo & Wang, Huijun & Yu, Jianfeng & Zhao, Shen, 2020. "Time-varying demand for lottery: Speculation ahead of earnings announcements," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(3), pages 789-817.
    5. Fink, Josef, 2021. "A review of the Post-Earnings-Announcement Drift," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).
    6. Robert Stoumbos, 2023. "The Growth of Information Asymmetry Between Earnings Announcements and Its Implications for Reporting Frequency," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(3), pages 1901-1928, March.
    7. Jiang, Danling & Norris, Dylan & Sun, Lin, 2021. "Weather, institutional investors and earnings news," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    8. Cakici, Nusret & Zaremba, Adam, 2023. "Recency bias and the cross-section of international stock returns," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    9. Levi, Shai & Zhang, Xiao-Jun, 2015. "Asymmetric decrease in liquidity trading before earnings announcements and the announcement return premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(2), pages 383-398.
    10. Chu, Gang & Li, Xiao & Zhang, Yongjie, 2022. "Information demand and net selling around earnings announcement," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    11. Liu, Mengxi (Maggie) & Chan, Kam Fong & Faff, Robert, 2022. "What can we learn from firm-level jump-induced tail risk around earnings announcements?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    12. Chakrabarty, Bidisha & Moulton, Pamela C., 2012. "Earnings announcements and attention constraints: The role of market design," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 612-634.
    13. Cosemans, Mathijs & Frehen, Rik, 2021. "Salience theory and stock prices: Empirical evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 460-483.
    14. Barber, Brad M. & Odean, Terrance, 2013. "The Behavior of Individual Investors," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1533-1570, Elsevier.
    15. Nilabhra Bhattacharya & Bidisha Chakrabarty & Xu (Frank) Wang, 2020. "High-frequency traders and price informativeness during earnings announcements," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 1156-1199, September.
    16. Bergsma, Kelley & Tayal, Jitendra, 2020. "Quarterly earnings announcements and intra-industry information transfer from the Pacific to the Atlantic," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    17. Yasser Alhenawi & M. Kabir Hassan, 2023. "How do investors price accrual risk during crises?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4), pages 4684-4706, October.
    18. Jordan Moore, 2020. "Glamour among value: P/E ratios and value investor attention," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 49(3), pages 673-706, September.
    19. Wang, Albert Y. & Young, Michael, 2023. "Mood, attention, and household trading: Evidence from terrorist attacks," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    20. Zhang, Sijia & Gregoriou, Andros, 2020. "Post earnings announcement drift, liquidity and zero leverage firms: Evidence from the UK stock market," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 13-26.
    21. Zhang, Sijia & Gregoriou, Andros & Wu, He, 2024. "Asymmetric post earnings announcement drift and order flow imbalance: The impact on stock market returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Return extrapolation; Earnings announcements; Expectation formation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G4 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • M41 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Accounting

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:reaccs:v:27:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1007_s11142-021-09593-w. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.