IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/qualqt/v58y2024i5d10.1007_s11135-024-01852-7.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modelling the economic effect of inbound birth tourism: a random forest algorithm approach

Author

Listed:
  • Sakiru Adebola Solarin

    (Multimedia University)

  • Muhammed Sehid Gorus

    (Ankara Yildirim Beyazit University)

  • Onder Ozgur

    (Ankara Yildirim Beyazit University)

Abstract

Due to the tourism sector being one of the main drivers of economic growth in several countries, many studies have been conducted on the economic impact of the tourism sector. However, the economic effect of the different tourism activities, especially birth tourism has not been sufficiently explored in the existing literature. Using different proxies that capture the development of birth tourism, we examine the economic effect of birth tourism on economic growth in New Zealand for the period, 1980–2019. Novel machine-learning techniques including random forest algorithm and partial dependence plots have been used to estimate the relationship between the variables in a framework, which also include capital stock and financial development. The empirical findings of this study show that there is a non-linear relationship between per capita income and birth tourism-related variables in New Zealand. These results offer fresh insights to policymakers on the importance of birth tourism.

Suggested Citation

  • Sakiru Adebola Solarin & Muhammed Sehid Gorus & Onder Ozgur, 2024. "Modelling the economic effect of inbound birth tourism: a random forest algorithm approach," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 58(5), pages 4223-4240, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:qualqt:v:58:y:2024:i:5:d:10.1007_s11135-024-01852-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s11135-024-01852-7
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11135-024-01852-7
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11135-024-01852-7?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Beck, Thorsten & Levine, Ross, 2004. "Stock markets, banks, and growth: Panel evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 423-442, March.
    2. Alessi, Lucia & Detken, Carsten, 2018. "Identifying excessive credit growth and leverage," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 215-225.
    3. Recep Ulucak & Ali Gökhan Yücel & Salih Çağrı İlkay, 2020. "Dynamics of tourism demand in Turkey: Panel data analysis using gravity model," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(8), pages 1394-1414, December.
    4. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Seema Narayan & Arti Prasad & Biman Chand Prasad, 2010. "Tourism and Economic Growth: A Panel Data Analysis for Pacific Island Countries," Tourism Economics, , vol. 16(1), pages 169-183, March.
    5. Ronald Kumar, 2014. "Exploring the nexus between tourism, remittances and growth in Kenya," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 1573-1588, May.
    6. Susanna Levantesi & Gabriella Piscopo, 2020. "The Importance of Economic Variables on London Real Estate Market: A Random Forest Approach," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-17, October.
    7. Bluwstein, Kristina & Buckmann, Marcus & Joseph, Andreas & Kapadia, Sujit & Şimşek, Özgür, 2023. "Credit growth, the yield curve and financial crisis prediction: Evidence from a machine learning approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    8. Sajons, Christoph, 2019. "Birthright citizenship and parental labor market integration," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 1-22.
    9. Alper Aslan, 2015. "The sustainability of tourism income on economic growth: does education matter?," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 49(5), pages 2097-2106, September.
    10. Jun Hou & Pierre Mohnen, 2013. "Complementarity between In-house R&D and Technology Purchasing: Evidence from Chinese Manufacturing Firms," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(3), pages 343-371, September.
    11. Bichaka Fayissa & Christian Nsiah & Badassa Tadasse, 2008. "Impact of Tourism on Economic Growth and Development in Africa," Tourism Economics, , vol. 14(4), pages 807-818, December.
    12. Jacint Balaguer & Manuel Cantavella-Jorda, 2002. "Tourism as a long-run economic growth factor: the Spanish case," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(7), pages 877-884.
    13. Jaehyun Yoon, 2021. "Forecasting of Real GDP Growth Using Machine Learning Models: Gradient Boosting and Random Forest Approach," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 57(1), pages 247-265, January.
    14. Ramesh Durbarry, 2004. "Tourism and Economic Growth: The Case of Mauritius," Tourism Economics, , vol. 10(4), pages 389-401, December.
    15. Oleg Badunenko & Diego Romero‐Ávila, 2013. "Financial Development And The Sources Of Growth And Convergence," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 54(2), pages 629-663, May.
    16. Matthias Schonlau & Rosie Yuyan Zou, 2020. "The random forest algorithm for statistical learning," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 20(1), pages 3-29, March.
    17. Mohammad Jaforullah, 2015. "International tourism and economic growth in New Zealand," Working Papers 1502, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Apr 2015.
    18. Kristen Corrie & Natalie Stoeckl & Taha Chaiechi, 2013. "Tourism and Economic Growth in Australia: An Empirical Investigation of Causal Links," Tourism Economics, , vol. 19(6), pages 1317-1344, December.
    19. Chor Foon Tang, 2021. "The threshold effects of educational tourism on economic growth," Current Issues in Tourism, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(1), pages 33-48, January.
    20. Juan Gabriel Brida & Isabel Cortes-Jimenez & Manuela Pulina, 2016. "Has the tourism-led growth hypothesis been validated? A literature review," Current Issues in Tourism, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(5), pages 394-430, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nikeel Kumar & Ronald Ravinesh Kumar & Radika Kumar & Peter Josef Stauvermann, 2020. "Is the tourism–growth relationship asymmetric in the Cook Islands? Evidence from NARDL cointegration and causality tests," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(4), pages 658-681, June.
    2. Stauvermann, Peter Josef & Kumar, Ronald Ravinesh, 2017. "Productivity growth and income in the tourism sector: Role of tourism demand and human capital investment," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 426-433.
    3. Jorge V Pérez-Rodríguez & Heiko Rachinger & María Santana-Gallego, 2022. "Does tourism promote economic growth? A fractionally integrated heterogeneous panel data analysis," Tourism Economics, , vol. 28(5), pages 1355-1376, August.
    4. Muhammad Shahbaz & Ronald Ravinesh Kumar & Stanislav Ivanov & Nanthakumar Loganathan, 2017. "The nexus between tourism demand and output per capita with the relative importance of trade openness and financial development," Tourism Economics, , vol. 23(1), pages 168-186, February.
    5. Uktam Umurzakov & Shakhnoza Tosheva & Raufhon Salahodjaev, 2023. "Tourism and Sustainable Economic Development: Evidence from Belt and Road Countries," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 14(1), pages 503-516, March.
    6. Makun, Keshmeer & Jayaraman, TK, 2022. "Tourism and Economic Growth in South Asian Countries: Asymmetric Analysis and Lessons for Mitigating the Adverse Effects of Covid-19 Pandemic," MPRA Paper 111377, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Francis Baidoo & Elikplimi Komla Agbloyor & Vera Ogeh Lassey Fiador & Nana Amaniampong Marfo, 2022. "Do countries’ geographical locations moderate the tourism-led economic growth nexus in sub-Saharan Africa?," Tourism Economics, , vol. 28(4), pages 1009-1039, June.
    8. Peter Josef Stauvermann & Ronald Ravinesh Kumar & Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Nikeel N. Kumar, 2018. "Effect of tourism on economic growth of Sri Lanka: accounting for capital per worker, exchange rate and structural breaks," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 51(1), pages 49-68, February.
    9. Naradda Gamage, Sisira Kumara & Kumudumali, S. H. T. & Otamurodov, Shavkat, 2020. "The Nexus between Tourism and Economic Growth: A Systematic Literature Review and Future Research Directions," MPRA Paper 104086, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Ronald Ravinesh Kumar & Peter Josef Stauvermann & Arvind Patel & Nikeel Kumar & Selvin Prasad, 2016. "Exploring the Nexus Between Tourism and Output in Cook Islands: An ARDL Bounds Approach," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 128(3), pages 1085-1101, September.
    11. Tina T He & Wilson XB Li, 2021. "Revisiting tourism’s additional impact on income," Tourism Economics, , vol. 27(1), pages 149-167, February.
    12. Ronald Kumar, 2014. "Exploring the role of technology, tourism and financial development: an empirical study of Vietnam," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 48(5), pages 2881-2898, September.
    13. Annie Tubadji & Peter Nijkamp, 2018. "Revisiting the Balassa–Samuelson effect: International tourism and cultural proximity," Tourism Economics, , vol. 24(8), pages 915-944, December.
    14. George Ekonomou & George Halkos, 2024. "Expanding the tourism energy growth nexus: an empirical analysis within the Eurozone," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(11), pages 27585-27605, November.
    15. Herman Sahni & Christian Nsiah & Bichaka Fayissa, 2021. "The African economic growth experience and tourism receipts: A threshold analysis and quantile regression approach," Tourism Economics, , vol. 27(5), pages 915-932, August.
    16. Brida, Juan Gabriel & Barquet, Andrea & Risso, Wiston Adrián, 2009. "Causality between Economic Growth and Tourism Expansion: Empirical Evidence from Trentino - Alto Adige," MPRA Paper 25316, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 14 Dec 2009.
    17. Sheilla Nyasha & Nicholas M. Odhiambo & Simplice A. Asongu, 2021. "The Impact of Tourism Development on Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 33(6), pages 1514-1535, December.
    18. Ceyhun Can OZCAN & Murat ASLAN & Saban NAZLIOGLU, 2017. "Economic freedom, economic growth and international tourism for post-communist (transition) countries: A panel causality analysis," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(2(611), S), pages 75-98, Summer.
    19. Ronald Kumar & Nanthakumar Loganathan & Arvind Patel & Radika Kumar, 2015. "Nexus between tourism earnings and economic growth: a study of Malaysia," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 49(3), pages 1101-1120, May.
    20. Daniel Francois Meyer, 2018. "An Analysis of the Impact of Economic Growth, Political Instability and Exchange Rate on Tourism Growth in South Africa," Proceedings of the 11th International RAIS Conference, November 19-20, 2018 04DM, Research Association for Interdisciplinary Studies.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:qualqt:v:58:y:2024:i:5:d:10.1007_s11135-024-01852-7. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.