IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/qualqt/v58y2024i3d10.1007_s11135-023-01778-6.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Is Abrams curve a myth or reality? Evidence from two Baltic countries

Author

Listed:
  • İbrahim Özmen

    (Selcuk University)

  • Selçuk Bali

    (Selcuk University)

  • Festus Victor Bekun

    (Istanbul Gelişim University
    American University)

Abstract

Government expenditures may tend to defray to increasing social needs with economic growth and development. This study focused on the effects of government expenditure on unemployment and conducted empirical research on the possible positive or negative effects of government expenditure on unemployment. This study employed the asymmetric causality and Kernel-based Regulated least squares (KRLS) method with machine learning to examine the effect of government expenditure on the unemployment rate for two Baltic countries (Estonia and Latvia) for annual time frequency data from 1995 to 2019. Asymmetric causality findings show that increase government final government consumption has a decreasing impact on unemployment in the Estonia. In addition to this, no enough evidence for Abrams Curve from Estonia and Latvia. Additionally, the government’s final consumption and expenditure effects have different signs at different quantiles. KRLS quantile coefficient findings point out that V-shape and inverse V-shape curve instead of the Abrams Curve for our sample.

Suggested Citation

  • İbrahim Özmen & Selçuk Bali & Festus Victor Bekun, 2024. "Is Abrams curve a myth or reality? Evidence from two Baltic countries," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 58(3), pages 2709-2733, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:qualqt:v:58:y:2024:i:3:d:10.1007_s11135-023-01778-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s11135-023-01778-6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11135-023-01778-6
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11135-023-01778-6?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2014. "The asymmetric Granger-causality analysis between energy consumption and income in the United States," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 362-369.
    2. Valerie A. Ramey, 2012. "Government Spending and Private Activity," NBER Chapters, in: Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis, pages 19-55, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Wendy Edelberg & Martin Eichenbaum & Jonas D.M. Fisher, 1999. "Understanding the Effects of a Shock to Government Purchases," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(1), pages 166-206, January.
    4. Erauskin, Iñaki, 2013. "The impact of financial openness on the size of utility-enhancing government," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 7, pages 1-56.
    5. Terasvirta, T & Anderson, H M, 1992. "Characterizing Nonlinearities in Business Cycles Using Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages 119-136, Suppl. De.
    6. Almanzar, Miguel & Torero, Maximo, 2017. "Distributional Effects of Growth and Public Expenditures in Africa: Estimates for Tanzania and Rwanda," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 177-195.
    7. Ken‐ichi Hashimoto & Ryonghun Im & Takuma Kunieda & Akihisa Shibata, 2022. "Asset bubbles, unemployment, and financial market frictions," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(4), pages 1806-1832, October.
    8. Aiyagari, S. Rao & Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin, 1992. "The output, employment, and interest rate effects of government consumption," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 73-86, October.
    9. Lee, Grace H.Y. & Parasnis, Jaai, 2014. "Discouraged workers in developed countries and added workers in developing countries? Unemployment rate and labour force participation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 90-98.
    10. Mr. Christian H Ebeke & Greetje Everaert, 2014. "Unemployment and Structural Unemployment in the Baltics," IMF Working Papers 2014/153, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    12. Yann Algan & Pierre Cahuc & André Zylberberg, 2002. "Public employment and labour market performance [‘On the benefits from rigid labour markets: Norms, market failures and social insurances’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 17(34), pages 7-66.
    13. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(2), pages 407-443.
    14. Gupta, Rangan & Sheng, Xin & Balcilar, Mehmet & Ji, Qiang, 2021. "Time-varying impact of pandemics on global output growth," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
    15. Christiano, Lawrence J & Eichenbaum, Martin, 1992. "Current Real-Business-Cycle Theories and Aggregate Labor-Market Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 430-450, June.
    16. Zuzana Brixiova & Balázs Égert, 2012. "Labour Market Reforms and Outcomes in Estonia," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 54(1), pages 103-120, March.
    17. Pérez-Alonso Alicia & Di Sanzo Silvestro, 2010. "Unemployment and Hysteresis: A Nonlinear Unobserved Components Approach," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 15(1), pages 1-29, December.
    18. Clémence Vergne, 2009. "Democracy, elections and allocation of public expenditures in developing countries," Post-Print hal-00368509, HAL.
    19. Epstein, Brendan & Finkelstein Shapiro, Alan & González Gómez, Andrés, 2019. "Global financial risk, aggregate fluctuations, and unemployment dynamics," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 351-418.
    20. Alan T. Peacock & Jack Wiseman, 1961. "The Growth of Public Expenditure in the United Kingdom," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number peac61-1, June.
    21. Saeid Mahdavi & Emmanuel Alanis, 2013. "Public expenditures and the unemployment rate in the American states: panel evidence," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(20), pages 2926-2937, July.
    22. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
    23. Abdulnasser Hatemi-J, 2012. "Asymmetric causality tests with an application," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 447-456, August.
    24. MATSUMAE Tatsuyoshi & HASUMI Ryo, 2016. "Impacts of Government Spending on Unemployment: Evidence from a Medium-scale DSGE Model(in Japanese)," ESRI Discussion paper series 329, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    25. Burton A. Abrams & Siyan Wang, 2006. "The Effect of Government Size on the Steady-State Unemployment Rate: A Structural Error Correction Model," Working Papers 06-05, University of Delaware, Department of Economics.
    26. Vergne, Clémence, 2009. "Democracy, elections and allocation of public expenditures in developing countries," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 63-77, March.
    27. Caggiano, Giovanni & Castelnuovo, Efrem & Kima, Richard, 2020. "The global effects of Covid-19-induced uncertainty," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    28. Douglas R. Dalenberg & Mark D. Partridge & Dan S. Rickman, 1998. "Public Infrastructure: Pork or Jobs Creator?," Public Finance Review, , vol. 26(1), pages 24-52, January.
    29. Morelli, Pierluigi & Seghezza, Elena, 2021. "Why was the ECB’s reaction to Covid-19 crisis faster than after the 2008 financial crash?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 1-14.
    30. Bod’a, Martin & Považanová, Mariana, 2021. "Output-unemployment asymmetry in Okun coefficients for OECD countries," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 307-323.
    31. Li, Jinjing & Wang, Xinmei & Xu, Jing & Yuan, Chang, 2020. "The role of public pensions in income inequality among elderly households in China 1988–2013," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    32. Cevik, Emrah Ismail & Dibooglu, Sel, 2013. "Persistence and non-linearity in US unemployment: A regime-switching approach," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 61-68.
    33. Markus Brückner & Evi Pappa, 2012. "Fiscal Expansions, Unemployment, And Labor Force Participation: Theory And Evidence," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 53(4), pages 1205-1228, November.
    34. Yuan, Mingwei & Li, Wenli, 2000. "Dynamic employment and hours effects of government spending shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(8), pages 1233-1263, July.
    35. Zhao, Bo, 2020. "COVID-19 pandemic, health risks, and economic consequences: Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    36. Sin-Yu Ho & Bernard Njindan Iyke, 2019. "Unemployment And Inflation: Evidence Of A Nonlinear Phillips Curve In The Eurozone," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 53(4), pages 151-163, Fall.
    37. Ahmet AYSU & Gökhan DÖKMEN, 2011. "An Investigation on the Relationship between Government Size and Unemployment Rate: Evidence from OECD Countries," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 16(16).
    38. Chen, Yi-Ling & Ting, Hsiu-I & Wang, Ming-Chun, 2021. "Government support and bank performance during the 2007–2008 financial crisis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    39. Burnside, Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin, 1996. "Factor-Hoarding and the Propagation of Business-Cycle Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1154-1174, December.
    40. Fatás, Antonio & Mihov, Ilian, 2001. "The Effects of Fiscal Policy on Consumption and Employment: Theory and Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 2760, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    41. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2020_011 is not listed on IDEAS
    42. Emrah Ismail Cevik & Turhan Korkmaz & Emre Cevik, 2017. "Testing causal relation among central and eastern European equity markets: evidence from asymmetric causality test," Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(1), pages 381-393, January.
    43. Hanan AbdelKhalik Abouelfarag & Rasha Qutb, 2020. "Does government expenditure reduce unemployment in Egypt?," Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 37(3), pages 355-374, October.
    44. Creedy, John & Moslehi, Solmaz, 2009. "Modelling the composition of government expenditure in democracies," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 42-55, March.
    45. Timothy Sharpe & Martin Watts, 2013. "Unconventional Monetary Policy in the UK: A Modern Money Critique," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 18(2), pages 41-64, September.
    46. Abrams, Burton A, 1999. "The Effect of Government Size on the Unemployment Rate," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 99(3-4), pages 395-401, June.
    47. repec:oup:ecpoli:v:17:y:2002:i:34:p:7-66 is not listed on IDEAS
    48. Karras, Georgios, 1993. "Employment and Output Effects of Government Spending: Is Government Size Important?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 31(3), pages 354-369, July.
    49. Dimitri G. Demekas & Zenon G. Kontolemis, 2000. "Government Employment and Wages and Labour Market Performance," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 62(3), pages 391-415, July.
    50. Hainmueller, Jens & Hazlett, Chad, 2014. "Kernel Regularized Least Squares: Reducing Misspecification Bias with a Flexible and Interpretable Machine Learning Approach," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(2), pages 143-168, April.
    51. Galletta, Sergio & Jametti, Mario, 2015. "How to tame two Leviathans? Revisiting the effect of direct democracy on local public expenditure in a federation," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 82-93.
    52. Burdekin, Richard C.K. & Tao, Ran, 2021. "The golden hedge: From global financial crisis to global pandemic," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 170-180.
    53. Chiara Natalie Focacci, 2023. "Old versus young: How much do countries spend on social benefits? Deterministic modeling for government expenditure," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 57(1), pages 363-377, February.
    54. Hashimoto, Ken-ichi & Im, Ryonghun & Kunieda, Takuma, 2020. "Asset Bubbles, Unemployment, and a Financial Crisis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    55. Horst Feldmann, 2009. "Government size and unemployment:evidence from developing countries," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 43(1), pages 315-330, September.
    56. Divino, Jose Angelo & Maciel, Daniel T.G.N. & Sosa, Wilfredo, 2020. "Government size, composition of public spending and economic growth in Brazil," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 155-166.
    57. Mark Partridge & Dan Rickman, 1997. "The Dispersion of US State Unemployment Rates: The Role of Market and Non-market Equilibrium Factors," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(6), pages 593-606.
    58. Meier, Samira & Rodriguez Gonzalez, Miguel & Kunze, Frederik, 2021. "The global financial crisis, the EMU sovereign debt crisis and international financial regulation: lessons from a systematic literature review," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    59. repec:bla:ecpoli:v:17:y:2002:i:34:p:7-66 is not listed on IDEAS
    60. Choi, Yeri & Lee, Sugie, 2020. "The impact of urban physical environments on cooling rates in summer: Focusing on interaction effects with a kernel-based regularized least squares (KRLS) model," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 523-534.
    61. Ralf Becker & Walter Enders & Junsoo Lee, 2006. "A Stationarity Test in the Presence of an Unknown Number of Smooth Breaks," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(3), pages 381-409, May.
    62. Makin, Anthony J. & Layton, Allan, 2021. "The global fiscal response to COVID-19: Risks and repercussions," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 340-349.
    63. Ordóñez, Javier & Monfort, Mercedes & Cuestas, Juan Carlos, 2019. "Oil prices, unemployment and the financial crisis in oil-importing countries: The case of Spain," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 625-634.
    64. Horst Feldmann, 2006. "Government Size and Unemployment: Evidence from Industrial Countries," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 127(3), pages 443-459, June.
    65. Gerald Scully, 1989. "The size of the state, economic growth and the efficient utilization of national resources," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 63(2), pages 149-164, November.
    66. Niloy Bose & M. Emranul Haque & Denise R. Osborn, 2007. "Public Expenditure And Economic Growth: A Disaggregated Analysis For Developing Countries," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 75(5), pages 533-556, September.
    67. Caggiano, Giovanni & Castelnuovo, Efrem & Kima, Richard, 2020. "The global effects of Covid-19-induced uncertainty," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    68. Abdullah Yavas, 1998. "Does too much government investment retard economic development of a country?," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 25(4), pages 296-308, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Antonio Afonso & Hüseyin Sen & Ayse Kaya, 2021. "Government Size, Unemployment and Inflation Nexus in Eight Large Emerging Market Economies," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 235(1), pages 133-170, March.
    2. Burton A. Abrams & Siyan Wang, 2007. "Government Outlays, Economic Growth and Unemployment: A VAR Model," Working Papers 07-13, University of Delaware, Department of Economics.
    3. Orkun ÇELIK & Elif ERER, 2021. "The Role of Gender in the Government Expenditure and Unemployment Nexus: An Investigation at Regional Level for Turkey," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 112-128, June.
    4. Kim, Hyeongwoo & Zhang, Shuwei, 2018. "Understanding Why Fiscal Stimulus Can Fail through the Lens of the Survey of Professional Forecasters," MPRA Paper 89326, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Kim, Hyeongwoo & Shao, Peng & Zhang, Shuwei, 2023. "Policy coordination and the effectiveness of fiscal stimulus," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    6. Horst Feldmann, 2006. "Government Size and Unemployment: Evidence from Industrial Countries," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 127(3), pages 443-459, June.
    7. Saeid Mahdavi & Emmanuel Alanis, 2013. "Public expenditures and the unemployment rate in the American states: panel evidence," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(20), pages 2926-2937, July.
    8. Jordi Galí & J. David López-Salido & Javier Vallés, 2007. "Understanding the Effects of Government Spending on Consumption," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 5(1), pages 227-270, March.
    9. Sefa Awaworyi Churchill & Mehmet Ugur & Siew Ling Yew, 2017. "Does Government Size Affect Per-Capita Income Growth? A Hierarchical Meta-Regression Analysis," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 93(300), pages 142-171, March.
    10. Dimitris Christopoulos & Efthymios Tsionas, 2002. "Unemployment and government size: Is there any credible causality?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(12), pages 797-800.
    11. Gregory E. Givens, 2022. "Unemployment, Partial Insurance, And The Multiplier Effects Of Government Spending," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 63(2), pages 571-599, May.
    12. Jia, Bijie, 2018. "Second Thoughts on Estimating Expansionary Fiscal Policy E ffects in the United States," MPRA Paper 90298, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Omay, Tolga & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Stewart, Chris, 2021. "Is There Really Hysteresis in OECD Countries’ Unemployment Rates? New Evidence Using a Fourier Panel Unit Root Test," MPRA Paper 107691, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 May 2021.
    14. Hüseyin Şen & Ayşe Kaya & Ayşegül Durucan, 2023. "New insights into the growth-maximizing size of government: evidence and implications for Turkey," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 2243-2296, August.
    15. Jia, Bijie, 2017. "A Second Thought on Estimating Expansionary Fiscal Policy Effects in the U.S," MPRA Paper 89264, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Sep 2018.
    16. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Hoang, Thi Hong Van & Mahalik, Mantu Kumar & Roubaud, David, 2017. "Energy consumption, financial development and economic growth in India: New evidence from a nonlinear and asymmetric analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 199-212.
    17. Hyeongwoo Kim, 2018. "Fiscal Policy, Wages, and Jobs in the U.S," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2018-02, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
    18. Nikeel Kumar & Ronald Ravinesh Kumar & Radika Kumar & Peter Josef Stauvermann, 2020. "Is the tourism–growth relationship asymmetric in the Cook Islands? Evidence from NARDL cointegration and causality tests," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(4), pages 658-681, June.
    19. İbrahim Özmen & Mihai Mutascu, 2024. "Public Debt and Growth: New Insights," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 15(2), pages 8706-8736, June.
    20. Evan Lau & Koon Po Lee, 2008. "Interdependence of income between China and ASEAN‐5 countries," Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 1(2), pages 148-161, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Government expenditure; Unemployment; Asymmetric causality; Non-linearity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H5 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies
    • J58 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Labor-Management Relations, Trade Unions, and Collective Bargaining - - - Public Policy
    • J6 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:qualqt:v:58:y:2024:i:3:d:10.1007_s11135-023-01778-6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.