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Time-varying impact of pandemics on global output growth

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  • Gupta, Rangan
  • Sheng, Xin
  • Balcilar, Mehmet
  • Ji, Qiang

Abstract

This paper analyses the dynamic impact of uncertainty due to global pandemics (SARS, H5N1, H1N1, MERS, Ebola, and COVID-19) on global output growth, using a TVP-SVAR model. We find that the negative effect of the coronavirus on the growth rate of output is unprecedented, with the emerging markets being the worst hit. We also find that since 2016, the comovement among the growth rates has increased significantly. Our results imply that policymakers would need to undertake massive expansionary policies, but it is also important to pursue well-coordinated policy decisions across the economic blocs.

Suggested Citation

  • Gupta, Rangan & Sheng, Xin & Balcilar, Mehmet & Ji, Qiang, 2021. "Time-varying impact of pandemics on global output growth," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:41:y:2021:i:c:s1544612320316378
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2020.101823
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    Cited by:

    1. Xu, Yongan & Wang, Jianqiong & Chen, Zhonglu & Liang, Chao, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and stock market returns: New evidence," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    2. Salisu, Afees A. & Gupta, Rangan & Karmakar, Sayar & Das, Sonali, 2022. "Forecasting output growth of advanced economies over eight centuries: The role of gold market volatility as a proxy of global uncertainty," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    3. Plakandaras, Vasilios & Gupta, Rangan & Balcilar, Mehmet & Ji, Qiang, 2022. "Evolving United States stock market volatility: The role of conventional and unconventional monetary policies," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    4. Ruipeng Liu & Rangan Gupta & Elie Bouri, 2021. "Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy Rate Uncertainty and Stock Market Volatility: A Forecasting Perspective," Working Papers 202178, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    5. Demirer, Riza & Gupta, Rangan & Salisu, Afees A. & van Eyden, Reneé, 2023. "Firm-level business uncertainty and the predictability of the aggregate U.S. stock market volatility during the COVID-19 pandemic," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 295-302.
    6. Matteo Bonato & Oguzhan Cepni & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2020. "Uncertainty due to Infectious Diseases and Forecastability of the Realized Variance of US REITs: A Note," Working Papers 202099, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Pandemics; Uncertainty; Output growth; TVP-SVAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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