Predictive model of under-five mortality in developing countries: evidence from multiple indicators cluster survey Punjab

Thriving to achieve Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), countries are destined to reduce preventable deaths of children under the age of five to at least as low as 25 deaths per 1000 live births by 2030. The literature is deficient in providing a piece of fresh evidence on the predictors of under-five mortality in developing countries. Accordingly, this study aims to provide a framework for the strategy to meet the development agenda of minimizing the under-five mortality by 2030 wherein Punjab is selected as a case to study. In Punjab (Pakistan), the under-five mortality rate has reduced from 112 to 69 deaths per 1000 live births from 2003 to 2018. However, the pace of improvement is slow to meet the SDG 3.2. There is hardly any study for Punjab that offers evidence on the predictors of under-five mortality. Therefore, this study deeply looks into the predictors of under-five mortality rate for efficient and targeted development practices, using the binomial logistic regression model. Mother’s age at childbirth, household’s wealth status, premature birth, skilled birth attendant, mother’s education, improved sanitation, stunting, access to clean drinking water, and numbers of children of a mother is found to be significant predictors of under-five mortality in Punjab. As a short-term initiative, it is suggested that an awareness campaign should be launched to educate the mothers to use available health structures whereas, in the long run, there is a need to develop a holistic strategy to deal with the multiple development goals.