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Analysis of the nonlinear relationship between commodity prices in the last two decades

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  • Lucas Catalano
  • Alejandra Figliola

Abstract

We propose the construction of a network to study the correlation among price indices of different commodities, by using the Multifractal Cross-Correlation method proposed by Podobnik and Stanley. This estimator, based on the method Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis, is effective for self-similar signals with characteristics such as those we here analyze. We construct different networks for time periods between 1991 and 2012. Each node represents a commodity group and the links are the cross-correlation between nodes. We study the evolution of these networks from January 1991 to April 2012. The results show that after 2007, high connectivity arises between the nodes of the matrix. We conjecture that this is a consequence of the cash flow from equities and real estate markets to the commodity market due to the subprime mortage crisis. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Lucas Catalano & Alejandra Figliola, 2015. "Analysis of the nonlinear relationship between commodity prices in the last two decades," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 49(4), pages 1553-1558, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:qualqt:v:49:y:2015:i:4:p:1553-1558
    DOI: 10.1007/s11135-014-0067-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Serrano, E. & Figliola, A., 2009. "Wavelet Leaders: A new method to estimate the multifractal singularity spectra," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(14), pages 2793-2805.
    2. Kaushik Matia & Yosef Ashkenazy & H. Eugene Stanley, 2003. "Multifractal Properties of Price Fluctuations of Stocks and Commodities," Papers cond-mat/0308012, arXiv.org.
    3. Siqueira, Erinaldo Leite & Stošić, Tatijana & Bejan, Lucian & Stošić, Borko, 2010. "Correlations and cross-correlations in the Brazilian agrarian commodities and stocks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(14), pages 2739-2743.
    4. Kantelhardt, Jan W. & Zschiegner, Stephan A. & Koscielny-Bunde, Eva & Havlin, Shlomo & Bunde, Armin & Stanley, H.Eugene, 2002. "Multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis of nonstationary time series," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 316(1), pages 87-114.
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