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Exploring the Trade-Off Between Economic and Health Outcomes During a Pandemic: A Discrete Choice Experiment of Lockdown Policies in Australia

Author

Listed:
  • Kathleen Manipis

    (University of Technology Sydney)

  • Deborah Street

    (University of Technology Sydney)

  • Paula Cronin

    (University of Technology Sydney)

  • Rosalie Viney

    (University of Technology Sydney)

  • Stephen Goodall

    (University of Technology Sydney)

Abstract

Background All countries experienced social and economic disruption and threats to health security from the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, but the responses in terms of control measures varied considerably. While control measures, such as quarantine, lockdown and social distancing, reduce infections and infection-related deaths, they have severe negative economic and social consequences. Objectives The objective of this study was to explore the acceptability of different infectious disease control measures, and examine how respondents trade off between economic and health outcomes. Methods A discrete choice experiment was developed, with attributes covering: control restrictions, duration of restrictions, tracking, number of infections and of deaths, unemployment, government expenditure and additional personal tax. A representative sample of Australians (n = 1046) completed the survey, which included eight choice tasks. Data were analysed using mixed logit regression to identify heterogeneity and latent class models to examine heterogeneity. Results In general, respondents had strong preferences for policies that avoided high infection-related deaths, although lower unemployment and government expenditure were also considered important. Respondents preferred a shorter duration for restrictions, but their preferences did not vary significantly for the differing levels of control measures. In terms of tracking, respondents preferred mobile phone tracking or bracelets when compared to no tracking. Significant differences in preferences was identified, with two distinct classes: Class 1 (57%) preferred the economy to remain open with some control measures, whereas Class 2 (43%), had stronger preferences for policies that reduced avoidable deaths. Conclusions This study found that the Australian population is willing to relinquish some freedom, in the short term, and trade off the negative social and economic impacts of the pandemic, to avoid the negative health consequences.

Suggested Citation

  • Kathleen Manipis & Deborah Street & Paula Cronin & Rosalie Viney & Stephen Goodall, 2021. "Exploring the Trade-Off Between Economic and Health Outcomes During a Pandemic: A Discrete Choice Experiment of Lockdown Policies in Australia," The Patient: Patient-Centered Outcomes Research, Springer;International Academy of Health Preference Research, vol. 14(3), pages 359-371, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:patien:v:14:y:2021:i:3:d:10.1007_s40271-021-00503-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s40271-021-00503-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Train,Kenneth E., 2009. "Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521747387, September.
    2. Caspar Chorus & Erlend Dancke Sandorf & Niek Mouter, 2020. "Diabolical dilemmas of COVID-19: An empirical study into Dutch society’s trade-offs between health impacts and other effects of the lockdown," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(9), pages 1-19, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lisa Gibbs & Alexander J. Thomas & Alison Coelho & Adil Al-Qassas & Karen Block & Niamh Meagher & Limya Eisa & Stephanie Fletcher-Lartey & Tianhui Ke & Phoebe Kerr & Edwin Jit Leung Kwong & Colin MacD, 2023. "Inclusion of Cultural and Linguistic Diversity in COVID-19 Public Health Research: Research Design Adaptations to Seek Different Perspectives in Victoria, Australia," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(3), pages 1-17, January.
    2. Emily Lancsar & Elisabeth Huynh & Joffre Swait & Robert Breunig & Craig Mitton & Martyn Kirk & Cam Donaldson, 2023. "Preparing for future pandemics: A multi‐national comparison of health and economic trade‐offs," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(7), pages 1434-1452, July.
    3. Rachael L. DiSantostefano & Fern Terris-Prestholt, 2021. "Using Societal Values to Inform Public Health Policy During the COVID-19 Pandemic: The Role of Health Preference Research," The Patient: Patient-Centered Outcomes Research, Springer;International Academy of Health Preference Research, vol. 14(3), pages 303-307, May.

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