IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v97y2019i1d10.1007_s11069-019-03651-y.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Grey- and rough-set-based seasonal disaster predictions: an analysis of flood data in India

Author

Listed:
  • R. Rajesh

    (ABV - Indian Institute of Information Technology & Management)

  • Chandrasekharan Rajendran

    (Indian Institute of Technology Madras)

Abstract

In a globally competitive market, companies attempt to foresee the occurrences of any catastrophe that may cause disruptions in their supply chains. Indian subcontinent is prone to frequent disasters related to floods and cyclones. It is essential for any supply chain operating in India to predict the occurrence of any such disasters. By doing so, the disaster management and the relief teams can prepare for the worst. This research makes use of a grey seasonal disaster prediction model to forecast the possible occurrence of any flood-related disasters in India. Flood data of major flood occurrences for a period of 10 years (2007–2017) have been taken for analysis in this context. We have established a grey model of the first order and with one variable, GM (1, 1), for prediction; from the results, we observe there are high chances of occurrence of a flood-related disaster in India during the early monsoon period (June–August), in both 2018 and 2020. By observing the prediction sequences on fatalities, there is likelihood that the death toll may rise above 100 and the flood can result in disastrous consequences. Also, the results of prediction are compared using an enhanced rough-set-based prediction model. From the results of rough-set-based prediction model, there are chances of a severe flood in mid-2018 in India. The results will be useful for organizations, NGOs and State Governments to carefully plan their supply and logistics network in the event of disasters. Graphic abstract Proposed methodology of grey seasonal disaster prediction for floods.

Suggested Citation

  • R. Rajesh & Chandrasekharan Rajendran, 2019. "Grey- and rough-set-based seasonal disaster predictions: an analysis of flood data in India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 97(1), pages 395-435, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:97:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1007_s11069-019-03651-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-019-03651-y
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-019-03651-y
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-019-03651-y?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. T. V. Padma, 2018. "Mining and dams exacerbated devastating Kerala floods," Nature, Nature, vol. 561(7721), pages 13-14, September.
    2. Chen, Li-Ming & Liu, Yan Emma & Yang, Shu-Jung Sunny, 2015. "Robust supply chain strategies for recovering from unanticipated disasters," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 198-214.
    3. Xuejun Shen & Limin Ou & Xiaojun Chen & Xin Zhang & Xuerui Tan, 2013. "The Application of the Grey Disaster Model to Forecast Epidemic Peaks of Typhoid and Paratyphoid Fever in China," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(4), pages 1-6, April.
    4. Yasuyuki Todo & Kentaro Nakajima & Petr Matous, 2015. "How Do Supply Chain Networks Affect The Resilience Of Firms To Natural Disasters? Evidence From The Great East Japan Earthquake," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(2), pages 209-229, March.
    5. Renoj Thayyen & A. Dimri & Pradeep Kumar & G. Agnihotri, 2013. "Study of cloudburst and flash floods around Leh, India, during August 4–6, 2010," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 65(3), pages 2175-2204, February.
    6. Kalayathankal, Sunny Joseph & Suresh Singh, G., 2010. "A fuzzy soft flood alarm model," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 80(5), pages 887-893.
    7. S. K. Allen & A. Linsbauer & S. S. Randhawa & C. Huggel & P. Rana & A. Kumari, 2016. "Glacial lake outburst flood risk in Himachal Pradesh, India: an integrative and anticipatory approach considering current and future threats," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 84(3), pages 1741-1763, December.
    8. Lifeng Wu & Sifeng Liu & Ding Chen & Ligen Yao & Wei Cui, 2014. "Using gray model with fractional order accumulation to predict gas emission," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 71(3), pages 2231-2236, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Qingwei Xu & Kaili Xu, 2020. "Statistical Analysis and Prediction of Fatal Accidents in the Metallurgical Industry in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(11), pages 1-20, May.
    2. Rajesh, R. & Agariya, Arun Kumar & Rajendran, Chandrasekharan, 2021. "Predicting resilience in retailing using grey theory and moving probability based Markov models," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    3. R. Rajesh, 2023. "Grey Markov Models for Predicting the Social Sustainability Performances of Firms," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 168(1), pages 297-351, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kashiwagi , Yuzuka & Todo , Yasuyuki, 2020. "Propagation of Positive Effects of Postdisaster Policies through Supply Chains: Evidence from the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 604, Asian Development Bank.
    2. Bachev, Hrabrin & Ito, Fusao, 2017. "Agricultural impacts of the Great East Japan Earthquake - six years later," MPRA Paper 79469, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Hayato Kato & Toshihiro Okubo, 2022. "The Resilience of FDI to Natural Disasters Through Industrial Linkages," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 82(1), pages 177-225, May.
    4. Liu, Huan & Tatano, Hirokazu & Pflug, Georg & Hochrainer-Stigler, Stefan, 2021. "Post-disaster recovery in industrial sectors: A Markov process analysis of multiple lifeline disruptions," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    5. Michal FABINGER & SHIBUYA Yoko & TANIGUCHI Mina, 2017. "International Influences on Japanese Supply Chains," Discussion papers 17022, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    6. Vasco M Carvalho & Makoto Nirei & Yukiko U Saito & Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi, 2021. "Supply Chain Disruptions: Evidence from the Great East Japan Earthquake," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 136(2), pages 1255-1321.
    7. Anirudh Shingal & Prachi Agarwal, 2020. "How did trade in GVC-based products respond to previous health shocks? Lessons for COVID-19," RSCAS Working Papers 2020/68, European University Institute.
    8. Längle, Katharina & Xu, Ankai & Tian, Ruijie, 2021. "Assessing the supply chain effect of natural disasters: Evidence from Chinese manufacturers," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2021-13, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    9. Joao Capella-Ramos & Romina Guri, 2022. "Firm adaptation in COVID-19 times: The case of Portuguese exporting firms," GEE Papers 0169, Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia, revised Sep 2022.
    10. SAWADA Yasuyuki & MASAKI Tatsujiro & NAKATA Hiroyuki & SEKIGUCHI Kunio, 2017. "Natural Disasters: Financial preparedness of corporate Japan," Discussion papers 17014, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    11. Paul, Sanjoy Kumar & Chowdhury, Priyabrata & Moktadir, Md. Abdul & Lau, Kwok Hung, 2021. "Supply chain recovery challenges in the wake of COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 316-329.
    12. Bachev, Hrabrin, 2015. "Изследване На Социално-Икономическите Ефекти На Земетресението, Цунамито И Ядрената Авария Във Фукушима През Март 2011 Година Върху Агро-Хранителните Вериги В Япония [A study on socio-economic impa," MPRA Paper 69426, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Inoue, Hiroyasu & Todo, Yasuyuki, 2017. "Firm-level simulation of supply chain disruption triggered by actual and predicted earthquakes," MPRA Paper 82920, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 22 Feb 2017.
    14. Tang Yao & Yigang Wei & Jianhong Zhang & Yani Wang & Yunjiang Yu & Wenyang Huang, 2022. "What influences the urban sewage discharge in China? The effect of diversified factors on the urban sewage discharge in different regions of China," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(5), pages 6099-6135, May.
    15. Cook, David & Malinauskaite, Laura & Davíðsdóttir, Brynhildur & Ögmundardóttir, Helga, 2021. "Co-production processes underpinning the ecosystem services of glaciers and adaptive management in the era of climate change," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    16. Yasuyuki Todo & Keita Oikawa & Masahito Ambashi & Fukunari Kimura & Shujiro Urata, 2023. "Robustness and resilience of supply chains during the COVID‐19 pandemic," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(6), pages 1843-1872, June.
    17. Shalini Shekhawat & Akash Saxena & Ramadan A. Zeineldin & Ali Wagdy Mohamed, 2023. "Prediction of Infectious Disease to Reduce the Computation Stress on Medical and Health Care Facilitators," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-18, January.
    18. Lenz, Fulko, 2020. "Europa im Systemwettbewerb mit China: Trugschlüsse, Schutzinstrumente und offensive Antworten," Argumente zur Marktwirtschaft und Politik 150, Stiftung Marktwirtschaft / The Market Economy Foundation, Berlin.
    19. Benoit, Florence & Connell-Garcia, William & Herghelegiu, Cristina & Pasimeni, Paolo, 2022. "Detecting and Analysing Supply Chain Disruption," Single Market Economics Papers WP2022/1, Directorate-General for Internal Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship and SMEs (European Commission), Chief Economist Team.
    20. Abhishek Behl & Pankaj Dutta, 2019. "Humanitarian supply chain management: a thematic literature review and future directions of research," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 283(1), pages 1001-1044, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:97:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1007_s11069-019-03651-y. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.