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Glacial lake outburst flood risk in Himachal Pradesh, India: an integrative and anticipatory approach considering current and future threats

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Listed:
  • S. K. Allen

    (University of Zurich)

  • A. Linsbauer

    (University of Zurich
    University of Fribourg)

  • S. S. Randhawa

    (State Council for Science, Technology and Environment)

  • C. Huggel

    (University of Zurich)

  • P. Rana

    (State Council for Science, Technology and Environment)

  • A. Kumari

    (State Council for Science, Technology and Environment)

Abstract

Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are a serious and potentially increasing threat to livelihoods and infrastructure in most high-mountain regions of the world. Here, we integrate modelling approaches that capture both current and future potential for GLOF triggering, quantification of affected downstream areas, and assessment of the underlying societal vulnerability to such climate-related disasters, to implement a first-order assessment of GLOF risk across the Himalayan state of Himachal Pradesh (HP), Northern India. The assessment thereby considers both current glacial lakes and modelled future lakes that are expected to form as glaciers retreat. Current hazard, vulnerability, and exposure indices are combined to reveal several risk ‘hotspots’, illustrating that significant GLOF risk may in some instances occur far downstream from the glaciated headwaters where the threats originate. In particular, trans-national GLOFs originating in the upper Satluj River Basin (China) are a threat to downstream areas of eastern HP. For the future deglaciated scenario, a significant increase in GLOF hazard levels is projected across most administrative units, as lakes expand or form closer towards steep headwalls from which impacts of falling ice and rock may trigger outburst events. For example, in the central area of Kullu, a 7-fold increase in the probability of GLOF triggering and a 3-fold increase in the downstream area affected by potential GLOF paths can be anticipated, leading to an overall increase in the assigned GLOF hazard level from ‘high’ to ‘very high’. In such instances, strengthening resilience and capacities to reduce the current GLOF risk will provide an important first step towards adapting to future challenges.

Suggested Citation

  • S. K. Allen & A. Linsbauer & S. S. Randhawa & C. Huggel & P. Rana & A. Kumari, 2016. "Glacial lake outburst flood risk in Himachal Pradesh, India: an integrative and anticipatory approach considering current and future threats," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 84(3), pages 1741-1763, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:84:y:2016:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-016-2511-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-016-2511-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Narendra Raj Khanal & Pradeep Kumar Mool & Arun Bhakta Shrestha & Golam Rasul & Pawan Kumar Ghimire & Rajendra Bahadur Shrestha & Sharad Prasad Joshi, 2015. "A comprehensive approach and methods for glacial lake outburst flood risk assessment, with examples from Nepal and the transboundary area," International Journal of Water Resources Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(2), pages 219-237, June.
    2. Robin McKillop & John Clague, 2007. "A procedure for making objective preliminary assessments of outburst flood hazard from moraine-dammed lakes in southwestern British Columbia," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 41(1), pages 131-157, April.
    3. Vikram Gupta & M. Sah, 2008. "Impact of the Trans-Himalayan Landslide Lake Outburst Flood (LLOF) in the Satluj catchment, Himachal Pradesh, India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 45(3), pages 379-390, June.
    4. Tobias Bolch & Juliane Peters & Alexandr Yegorov & Biswajeet Pradhan & Manfred Buchroithner & Victor Blagoveshchensky, 2011. "Identification of potentially dangerous glacial lakes in the northern Tien Shan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 59(3), pages 1691-1714, December.
    5. Susan L. Cutter & Bryan J. Boruff & W. Lynn Shirley, 2003. "Social Vulnerability to Environmental Hazards," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 84(2), pages 242-261, June.
    6. Mark Carey & Christian Huggel & Jeffrey Bury & César Portocarrero & Wilfried Haeberli, 2012. "An integrated socio-environmental framework for glacier hazard management and climate change adaptation: lessons from Lake 513, Cordillera Blanca, Peru," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 112(3), pages 733-767, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Wilfried Haeberli & Michael Buetler & Christian Huggel & Therese Lehmann Friedli & Yvonne Schaub & Anton J. Schleiss, 2016. "New lakes in deglaciating high-mountain regions – opportunities and risks," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 139(2), pages 201-214, November.
    2. R. Rajesh & Chandrasekharan Rajendran, 2019. "Grey- and rough-set-based seasonal disaster predictions: an analysis of flood data in India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 97(1), pages 395-435, May.
    3. Cook, David & Malinauskaite, Laura & Davíðsdóttir, Brynhildur & Ögmundardóttir, Helga, 2021. "Co-production processes underpinning the ecosystem services of glaciers and adaptive management in the era of climate change," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).

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