IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v94y2018i3d10.1007_s11069-018-3486-6.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modelling glacial lake outburst flood impacts in the Bolivian Andes

Author

Listed:
  • Ioannis Kougkoulos

    (Manchester Metropolitan University)

  • Simon J. Cook

    (University of Dundee)

  • Laura A. Edwards

    (Liverpool John Moores University)

  • Leon J. Clarke

    (Manchester Metropolitan University)

  • Elias Symeonakis

    (Manchester Metropolitan University)

  • Jason M. Dortch

    (University of Kentucky)

  • Kathleen Nesbitt

    (University of Manchester)

Abstract

The Bolivian Andes have experienced sustained and widespread glacier mass loss in recent decades. Glacier recession has been accompanied by the development of proglacial lakes, which pose a glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) risk to downstream communities and infrastructure. Previous research has identified three potentially dangerous glacial lakes in the Bolivian Andes, but no attempt has yet been made to model GLOF inundation downstream from these lakes. We generated 2-m resolution DEMs from stereo and tri-stereo SPOT 6/7 satellite images to drive a hydrodynamic model of GLOF flow (HEC-RAS 5.0.3). The model was tested against field observations of a 2009 GLOF from Keara, in the Cordillera Apolobamba, and was shown to reproduce realistic flood depths and inundation. The model was then used to model GLOFs from Pelechuco lake (Cordillera Apolobamba) and Laguna Arkhata and Laguna Glaciar (Cordillera Real). In total, six villages could be affected by GLOFs if all three lakes burst. For sensitivity analysis, we ran the model for three scenarios (pessimistic, intermediate, optimistic), which give a range of ~ 1100 to ~ 2200 people affected by flooding; between ~ 800 and ~ 2100 people could be exposed to floods with a flow depth ≥ 2 m, which could be life threatening and cause a significant damage to infrastructure. We suggest that Laguna Arkhata and Pelechuco lake represent the greatest risk due to the higher numbers of people who live in the potential flow paths, and hence, these two glacial lakes should be a priority for risk managers.

Suggested Citation

  • Ioannis Kougkoulos & Simon J. Cook & Laura A. Edwards & Leon J. Clarke & Elias Symeonakis & Jason M. Dortch & Kathleen Nesbitt, 2018. "Modelling glacial lake outburst flood impacts in the Bolivian Andes," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 94(3), pages 1415-1438, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:94:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-018-3486-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-018-3486-6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-018-3486-6
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-018-3486-6?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Miyuki Hino & Christopher B. Field & Katharine J. Mach, 2017. "Managed retreat as a response to natural hazard risk," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(5), pages 364-370, May.
    2. M. Jakob & D. Stein & M. Ulmi, 2012. "Vulnerability of buildings to debris flow impact," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 60(2), pages 241-261, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ioannis Kougkoulos & M. Selim Cakir & Nathan Kunz & Doreen S. Boyd & Alexander Trautrims & Kornilia Hatzinikolaou & Stefan Gold, 2021. "A Multi‐Method Approach to Prioritize Locations of Labor Exploitation for Ground‐Based Interventions," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 30(12), pages 4396-4411, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hashida, Yukiko & Dundas, Steven J., 2023. "The effects of a voluntary property buyout and acquisition program on coastal housing markets: Evidence from New York," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    2. Tubridy, Fiadh & Lennon, Mick & Scott, Mark, 2022. "Managed retreat and coastal climate change adaptation: The environmental justice implications and value of a coproduction approach," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    3. Nisar Ali Shah & Muhammad Shafique & Muhammad Ishfaq & Kamil Faisal & Mark Van der Meijde, 2023. "Integrated Approach for Landslide Risk Assessment Using Geoinformation Tools and Field Data in Hindukush Mountain Ranges, Northern Pakistan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-21, February.
    4. Michalis Diakakis & Spyridon Mavroulis & Emmanuel Vassilakis & Vassiliki Chalvatzi, 2023. "Exploring the Application of a Debris Flow Likelihood Regression Model in Mediterranean Post-Fire Environments, Using Field Observations-Based Validation," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-18, February.
    5. Hyo-sub Kang & Yun-tae Kim, 2016. "The physical vulnerability of different types of building structure to debris flow events," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 80(3), pages 1475-1493, February.
    6. Mali‘o Kodis & Marci Bortman & Sarah Newkirk, 2021. "Strategic retreat for resilient and equitable climate adaptation: the roles for conservation organizations," Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, Springer;Association of Environmental Studies and Sciences, vol. 11(3), pages 493-502, September.
    7. Gül Aktürk & Martha Lerski, 2021. "Intangible cultural heritage: a benefit to climate-displaced and host communities," Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, Springer;Association of Environmental Studies and Sciences, vol. 11(3), pages 305-315, September.
    8. Guo, Wei & Liao, Yanjun (Penny) & Miao, Qing, 2023. "Managed Retreat and Flood Recovery: The Local Economic Impacts of a Buyout and Acquisition Program," RFF Working Paper Series 23-44, Resources for the Future.
    9. Thomas Thaler, 2021. "Just retreat—how different countries deal with it: examples from Austria and England," Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, Springer;Association of Environmental Studies and Sciences, vol. 11(3), pages 412-419, September.
    10. Geronimo Gussmann & Jochen Hinkel, 2020. "What drives relocation policies in the Maldives?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(2), pages 931-951, November.
    11. R. Vázquez & J. L. Macías & J. Alcalá-Reygosa & J. L. Arce & A. Jiménez-Haro & S. Fernández & T. Carlón & R. Saucedo & J. M. Sánchez-Núñez, 2022. "Numerical modeling and hazard implications of landslides at the Ardillas Volcanic Dome (Tacaná Volcanic Complex, Mexico-Guatemala)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 113(2), pages 1305-1333, September.
    12. Zhifei Deng & Jifu Liu & Lanlan Guo & Jiaoyang Li & Junming Li & Yiru Jia, 2021. "Pure risk premium rating of debris flows based on a dynamic run-out model: a case study in Anzhou, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 106(1), pages 235-253, March.
    13. Hoang, Thoa & Noy, Ilan, 2023. "The income consequences of a managed retreat," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    14. Justin Contat & Carrie Hopkins & Luis Mejia & Matthew Suandi, 2024. "When climate meets real estate: A survey of the literature," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 52(3), pages 618-659, May.
    15. Idowu Ajibade, 2019. "Planned retreat in Global South megacities: disentangling policy, practice, and environmental justice," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 157(2), pages 299-317, November.
    16. Gunnel Göransson & Lisa Van Well & David Bendz & Per Danielsson & Jim Hedfors, 2021. "Territorial governance of managed retreat in Sweden: addressing challenges," Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, Springer;Association of Environmental Studies and Sciences, vol. 11(3), pages 376-391, September.
    17. Xuemei Fang & Liang Cao & Luyi Zhang & Binbin Peng, 2023. "Risk perception and resistance behavior intention of residents living near chemical industry parks: an empirical analysis in China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 115(2), pages 1655-1675, January.
    18. Buckwell, Andrew & Fleming, Christopher & Smart, James & Mackey, Brendan & Ware, Daniel & Hallgren, Willow & Sahin, Oz & Nalau, Johanna, 2018. "Valuing aggregated ecosystem services at a national and regional scale for Vanuatu using a remotely operable, rapid assessment methodology," 2018 Conference (62nd), February 7-9, 2018, Adelaide, Australia 273524, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    19. Hualin Cheng & Zhiyi Chen & Yu Huang, 2022. "Quantitative physical model of vulnerability of buildings to urban flow slides in construction solid waste landfills: a case study of the 2015 Shenzhen flow slide," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 112(2), pages 1567-1587, June.
    20. Eduardo Macías García & Fábio Ferreira Dias, 2024. "Future scenarios in the former oil capital: coastal flooding and social vulnerability in Macaé, RJ," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(7), pages 18625-18640, July.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:94:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-018-3486-6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.