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Seismic hazard and probability assessment of Kashmir valley, northwest Himalaya, India

Author

Listed:
  • Rakesh Chandra

    (University of Kashmir)

  • Javid Ahmad Dar

    (University of Kashmir)

  • Shakil Ahmad Romshoo

    (University of Kashmir)

  • Irfan Rashid

    (University of Kashmir)

  • Imtiyaz A. Parvez

    (CSIR Fourth Paradigm Institute)

  • Sareer Ahmad Mir

    (University of Kashmir)

  • Midhat Fayaz

    (University of Kashmir)

Abstract

Seismic hazard analysis of the northwest Himalayan belt was carried out by using extreme value theory (EVT). The rate of seismicity (a value) and recurrence intervals with the given earthquake magnitude (b value) was calculated from the observed data using Gutenberg–Richter Law. The statistical evaluation of 12,125 events from 1902 to 2017 shows the increasing trend in their inter-arrival times. The frequency–magnitude relation exhibits a linear downslope trend with negative slope of 0.8277 and positive intercept of 4.6977. The empirical results showed that the annual risk probability of high magnitude earthquake M ≥ 7.7 in 50 years is 88% with recurrence period of 47 years, probability of M ≤ 7.5 in 50 years is 97% with recurrence period of 27 years, and probability of M ≤ 6.5 in 50 years is 100% with recurrence period of 4 years. Kashmir valley, located in the NW Himalaya, encompasses a peculiar tectonic and structural setup. The patterns of the present and historical seismicity records of the valley suggest a long-term strain accumulation along NNW and SSE extensions with the decline in the seismic gap, posing a potential threat of earthquakes in the future. The Kashmir valley is characterized by the typical lithological, tectono-geomorphic, geotechnical, hydrogeological and socioeconomic settings that augment the earthquake vulnerability associated with the seismicity of the region. The cumulative impact of the various influencing parameters therefore exacerbates the seismic hazard risk of the valley to future earthquake events.

Suggested Citation

  • Rakesh Chandra & Javid Ahmad Dar & Shakil Ahmad Romshoo & Irfan Rashid & Imtiyaz A. Parvez & Sareer Ahmad Mir & Midhat Fayaz, 2018. "Seismic hazard and probability assessment of Kashmir valley, northwest Himalaya, India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 93(3), pages 1451-1477, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:93:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-018-3362-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-018-3362-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Rajesh Kumar & Prasenjit Acharya, 2016. "Flood hazard and risk assessment of 2014 floods in Kashmir Valley: a space-based multisensor approach," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 84(1), pages 437-464, October.
    2. A. A. Shah & Javed N. Malik, 2017. "Four major unknown active faults identified, using satellite data, in India and Pakistan portions of NW Himalaya," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 88(3), pages 1845-1865, September.
    3. Zimbidis, Alexandros A. & Frangos, Nickolaos E. & Pantelous, Athanasios A., 2007. "Modeling Earthquake Risk via Extreme Value Theory and Pricing the Respective Catastrophe Bonds," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 37(1), pages 163-183, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Anil Tiwari & Ajay Paul & Rakesh Singh & Rajeev Upadhyay, 2021. "Potential seismogenic asperities in the Garhwal–Kumaun region, NW Himalaya: seismotectonic implications," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 107(1), pages 73-95, May.
    2. Ismanto Heri & Hartono Hartono & Marfai Muh Aris, 2019. "Spatiotemporal visibility characteristics impacted by forest and land fire over airports in sumatera and borneo Island, Indonesia," Quaestiones Geographicae, Sciendo, vol. 38(3), pages 5-16, September.
    3. A. A. Shah, 2021. "Comment on: seismic hazard and probability assessment of Kashmir valley, northwest Himalaya, India by Chandra et al. 2018," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 108(1), pages 1411-1414, August.

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