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Damaging flood severity assessment in Northern Portugal over more than 150 years (1865–2016)

Author

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  • Mónica Santos

    (Universidade de Lisboa
    Universidade de Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, UTAD)

  • Marcelo Fragoso

    (Universidade de Lisboa)

  • João A. Santos

    (Universidade de Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, UTAD)

Abstract

Floods are a major natural hazard, with vast implications over a wide range of socio-economic activities. A harmonized post-flood classification is critical for a better understanding of this hazard, by providing homogeneous flood catalogues for future research on triggering mechanisms. We apply a flood severity index (FSI) to damaging floods in Northern Portugal over a 152-year period (1865–2016) and identify the most critical areas to flood occurrences. The index is a damage-based post-event assessment tool, which includes five categories ranging from minor flooding (1) to catastrophic flooding (5). FSI is applied to a historical damaging flood database with 2318 occurrences. In Northern Portugal, serious floods (3) are the most frequent typology, while catastrophic floods are typically river floods occurring in the Douro basin. Overall, damaging flood occurrences are favoured by the positive phase of the East Atlantic pattern and by the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Furthermore, the north-western areas reveal higher concentrations of damaging flood occurrences, mainly due to higher population density, higher precipitation values and more flood plain areas. In particular, 48% of all occurrences are concentrated in the Porto Metropolitan Area, mainly the Porto city centre and nearby riverside areas of the Douro River. High-population density and heavily urbanized areas lead to greater exposure to flood risk, whereas the most peripheral municipalities, with large agricultural/forested areas, show much lower numbers of damaging floods. FSI is tool to communicate the magnitude of the flood risk and is, therefore, of foremost relevance to civil protection and risk management.

Suggested Citation

  • Mónica Santos & Marcelo Fragoso & João A. Santos, 2018. "Damaging flood severity assessment in Northern Portugal over more than 150 years (1865–2016)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 91(3), pages 983-1002, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:91:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-017-3166-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-3166-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Luc Feyen & Rutger Dankers & Katalin Bódis & Peter Salamon & José Barredo, 2012. "Fluvial flood risk in Europe in present and future climates," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 112(1), pages 47-62, May.
    2. Jonkman, S.N. & Bockarjova, M. & Kok, M. & Bernardini, P., 2008. "Integrated hydrodynamic and economic modelling of flood damage in the Netherlands," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 77-90, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Maria João Alcoforado & Luís Pedro Silva & Inês Amorim & Marcelo Fragoso & João Carlos Garcia, 2021. "Historical floods of the Douro River in Porto, Portugal (1727–1799)," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 165(1), pages 1-20, March.

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