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Risk prediction of rural public security environmental carrying capacity based on the risk entropy

Author

Listed:
  • Xing Huang

    (Southwest University of Science and Technology)

  • Hua Bai

    (Fujian Normal University)

Abstract

In order to achieve effective early warning and prediction for the risk of ecological environmental carrying capacity of rural public security, this paper put forward risk assessment indicators from the perspective of rural ecological, infrastructure, social, and population carrying capacity. And then, this paper constructs risk assessment model of rural ecological environment carrying capacity on the base of genetic projection pursuit model, information diffusion theory, and risk entropy method. First of all, the genetic projection pursuit model is introduced to perform one-dimensional projection for high-dimensional data according to optimal projection direction, and the projection value is fitted with time series together, thus, the risk of rural ecological environment carrying capacity could be divided into four risk levels according to established standard; secondly, we spread the one-dimensional projection value of each sample into four risk levels by information diffusion theory, and calculate the risk entropy of rural environmental carrying capacity by risk entropy method; at last, the empirical analysis shows that the model constructed in this paper is simple and effective, which could provide effective reference and suggestion for environmental protection and public safety department.

Suggested Citation

  • Xing Huang & Hua Bai, 2018. "Risk prediction of rural public security environmental carrying capacity based on the risk entropy," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 90(1), pages 157-171, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:90:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s11069-017-3037-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-3037-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Arrow, Kenneth & Bolin, Bert & Costanza, Robert & Dasgupta, Partha & Folke, Carl & Holling, C.S. & Jansson, Bengt-Owe & Levin, Simon & Mäler, Karl-Göran & Perrings, Charles & Pimentel, David, 1996. "Economic growth, carrying capacity, and the environment," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(1), pages 104-110, February.
    2. Costanza, Robert, 1995. "Economic growth, carrying capacity, and the environment," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 89-90, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Menglu Chen & Juliang Jin & Shaowei Ning & Yuliang Zhou & Parmeshwar Udmale, 2020. "Early Warning Method for Regional Water Resources Carrying Capacity Based on the Logical Curve and Aggregate Warning Index," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(7), pages 1-15, March.

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