IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v88y2017i2d10.1007_s11069-017-2909-0.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Impact of climate change on runoff and uncertainty analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Jianxia Chang

    (Xi’an University of Technology)

  • Hongxue Zhang

    (Xi’an University of Technology)

  • Yimin Wang

    (Xi’an University of Technology)

  • Lianpeng Zhang

    (Xi’an University of Technology)

Abstract

It is necessary to analyze the future runoff changes using a more realistic climate classification scheme. This paper investigates the climate changes and runoff variation by runoff simulation from global climate models participating in the CMIP5. This study also focuses on the uncertain effect of meteorological input data and hydrological model parameters on the runoff. TOPMODEL is used to simulate runoff, and the sensibility of runoff to precipitation and temperature variabilities is analyzed under the scenario of 25 hypothesis. Considering the uncertainty of input data of hydrological model, the predicted future precipitation and temperature data under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are input into the TOPMODEL model to simulate the future runoff under different scenarios, and the M-GLUE method is used to analyze the uncertainty of model parameters. Jinghe River basin is selected as the study area in this paper. The analytical results reveal decreasing trends for runoff and precipitation, and the influence of precipitation change on runoff is more sensitive than the change of temperature. Integrating the results of the two climate models, the annual average runoff will decrease by from 13.3 to 27.7% under RCP4.5 scenario and under RCP8.5 scenario the decrease interval is from 17.1 to 25.2%. The RV, SRmax and S zm are the most sensitive parameters for the TOPMODEL. M-GLUE method can effectively analyze the uncertainty of hydrological simulation, and the interval width and coverage rate of the 90% confidence interval are 19 and 74%, respectively.

Suggested Citation

  • Jianxia Chang & Hongxue Zhang & Yimin Wang & Lianpeng Zhang, 2017. "Impact of climate change on runoff and uncertainty analysis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 88(2), pages 1113-1131, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:88:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-017-2909-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-2909-0
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-017-2909-0
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-017-2909-0?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Majid Mirzaei & Yuk Huang & Ahmed El-Shafie & Tayebeh Chimeh & Juneseok Lee & Nariman Vaizadeh & Jan Adamowski, 2015. "Uncertainty analysis for extreme flood events in a semi-arid region," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 78(3), pages 1947-1960, September.
    2. Xining Zhao & Pute Wu, 2013. "Meteorological drought over the Chinese Loess Plateau: 1971–2010," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 67(2), pages 951-961, June.
    3. Gabriella Szépszó & Imke Lingemann & Bastian Klein & Mária Kovács, 2014. "Impact of climate change on hydrological conditions of Rhine and Upper Danube rivers based on the results of regional climate and hydrological models," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 72(1), pages 241-262, May.
    4. Vinit Jain & R. Pandey & Manoj Jain, 2015. "Spatio-temporal assessment of vulnerability to drought," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 76(1), pages 443-469, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Albert Persaud & Geraint Day & Susham Gupta & Antonio Ventriglio & Roxanna Ruiz & Egor Chumakov & Geetha Desai & Joao Castaldelli-Maia & Julio Torales & Edgardo Juan Tolentino & Kamaldeep Bhui & Dines, 2018. "Geopolitical factors and mental health I," International Journal of Social Psychiatry, , vol. 64(8), pages 778-785, December.
    2. Chang, Jianxia & Wang, Xiaoyu & Li, Yunyun & Wang, Yimin & Zhang, Hongxue, 2018. "Hydropower plant operation rules optimization response to climate change," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 886-897.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Itziar González Tánago & Julia Urquijo & Veit Blauhut & Fermín Villarroya & Lucia De Stefano, 2016. "Learning from experience: a systematic review of assessments of vulnerability to drought," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 80(2), pages 951-973, January.
    2. Enliang Guo & Jiquan Zhang & Yongfang Wang & Ha Si & Feng Zhang, 2016. "Dynamic risk assessment of waterlogging disaster for maize based on CERES-Maize model in Midwest of Jilin Province, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 83(3), pages 1747-1761, September.
    3. Alireza Keshavarzi & Hossein Hamidifar, 2018. "Kinetic energy and momentum correction coefficients in compound open channels," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 92(3), pages 1859-1869, July.
    4. Song, Xiaolin & Wu, Pute & Gao, Xiaodong & Yao, Jie & Zou, Yufeng & Zhao, Xining & Siddique, Kadambot H.M. & Hu, Wei, 2020. "Rainwater collection and infiltration (RWCI) systems promote deep soil water and organic carbon restoration in water-limited sloping orchards," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    5. Itziar González Tánago & Julia Urquijo & Veit Blauhut & Fermín Villarroya & Lucia De Stefano, 2016. "Learning from experience: a systematic review of assessments of vulnerability to drought," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 80(2), pages 951-973, January.
    6. Hao Wu & Hui Qian & Jie Chen & Chenchen Huo, 2017. "Assessment of Agricultural Drought Vulnerability in the Guanzhong Plain, China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(5), pages 1557-1574, March.
    7. Lusheng Li & Lili Zhao & Jiankun Ge & Hongchen Li & Peiwen Yang, 2022. "Age- and Drought-Related Variation in Plant-Available Water of Rain-Fed Jujube Orchards on the Loess Plateau of China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-14, September.
    8. Ming Li & Fuqiang Cao & Guiwen Wang & Xurong Chai & Lianzhi Zhang, 2020. "Evolutional Characteristics of Regional Meteorological Drought and Their Linkages with Southern Oscillation Index across the Loess Plateau of China during 1962–2017," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-18, September.
    9. Xining Zhao & Baoqing Zhang & Pute Wu, 2014. "Changes in key driving forces of soil erosion in the Middle Yellow River Basin: vegetation and climate," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 70(1), pages 957-968, January.
    10. Rengui Jiang & Jiancang Xie & Hailong He & Jungang Luo & Jiwei Zhu, 2015. "Use of four drought indices for evaluating drought characteristics under climate change in Shaanxi, China: 1951–2012," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 75(3), pages 2885-2903, February.
    11. Mondol, Md Anarul Haque & Zhu, Xuan & Dunkerley, David & Henley, Benjamin J., 2021. "Observed meteorological drought trends in Bangladesh identified with the Effective Drought Index (EDI)," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
    12. Arnold R. Salvacion, 2023. "Delineating village-level drought risk in Marinduque Island, Philippines," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 116(3), pages 2993-3014, April.
    13. Hongpeng Guo & Jia Chen & Chulin Pan, 2021. "Assessment on Agricultural Drought Vulnerability and Spatial Heterogeneity Study in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(9), pages 1-17, April.
    14. Kavina S. Dayal & Ravinesh C. Deo & Armando A. Apan, 2018. "Spatio-temporal drought risk mapping approach and its application in the drought-prone region of south-east Queensland, Australia," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 93(2), pages 823-847, September.
    15. Majid Mirzaei & Haoxuan Yu & Adnan Dehghani & Hadi Galavi & Vahid Shokri & Sahar Mohsenzadeh Karimi & Mehdi Sookhak, 2021. "A Novel Stacked Long Short-Term Memory Approach of Deep Learning for Streamflow Simulation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-16, December.
    16. Guoqing Wang & Jianyun Zhang & Junliang Jin & Josh Weinberg & Zhenxin Bao & Cuishan Liu & Yanli Liu & Xiaolin Yan & Xiaomeng Song & Ran Zhai, 2017. "Impacts of climate change on water resources in the Yellow River basin and identification of global adaptation strategies," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 67-83, January.
    17. Yi Liu & Zhongyun Ni & Yinbing Zhao & Guoli Zhou & Yuhao Luo & Shuai Li & Dong Wang & Shaowen Zhang, 2022. "Spatial-Temporal Evolution and Driving Forces of Drying Trends on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Based on Geomorphological Division," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(13), pages 1-31, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:88:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-017-2909-0. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.