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Joint return probability analysis of wind speed and rainfall intensity in typhoon-affected sea area

Author

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  • Sheng Dong

    (Ocean University of China)

  • Chun-Shuo Jiao

    (Ocean University of China)

  • Shan-Shan Tao

    (Ocean University of China)

Abstract

Strong wind and rainfall induced by extreme meteorological processes such as typhoons have a serious impact on the safety of bridges and offshore engineering structures. A new bivariate compound extreme value distribution is proposed to describe the probability dependency structure of annual extreme wind speed and concomitant process maximum rainfall intensity in typhoon-affected area. This probability model takes full account of the case that there may be no rainfall in a typhoon process. A case study based on the observation data of typhoon maximum wind speed and maximum rainfall intensity in Shanghai is conducted to testify the efficiency of the model. Weibull distributions with two parameters are applied to fit respective probability margins, and the joint probability distribution is constructed by Gumbel–Hougaard copula. The fitting results and K–S tests show that these models describe the original data well. The joint return periods are calculated by Poisson bivariate compound extreme value distribution we have proposed. They indicate that typhoons with no rain have smaller joint return periods, and wind speed is the main factor which impacts the change of the joint return periods.

Suggested Citation

  • Sheng Dong & Chun-Shuo Jiao & Shan-Shan Tao, 2017. "Joint return probability analysis of wind speed and rainfall intensity in typhoon-affected sea area," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 86(3), pages 1193-1205, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:86:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-016-2736-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-016-2736-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Shanshan Tao & Sheng Dong & Nannan Wang & C. Guedes Soares, 2013. "Estimating storm surge intensity with Poisson bivariate maximum entropy distributions based on copulas," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 68(2), pages 791-807, September.
    2. Yo Fukutani & Suppasri Anawat & Fumihiko Imamura, 2016. "Uncertainty in tsunami wave heights and arrival times caused by the rupture velocity in the strike direction of large earthquakes," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 80(3), pages 1749-1782, February.
    3. Yo Fukutani & Suppasri Anawat & Fumihiko Imamura, 2016. "Uncertainty in tsunami wave heights and arrival times caused by the rupture velocity in the strike direction of large earthquakes," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 80(3), pages 1749-1782, February.
    4. Dong, Sheng & Tao, Shanshan & Li, Xue & Soares, C. Guedes, 2015. "Trivariate maximum entropy distribution of significant wave height, wind speed and relative direction," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 538-549.
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    Cited by:

    1. Yanting Ye & Weihua Fang, 2018. "Estimation of the compound hazard severity of tropical cyclones over coastal China during 1949–2011 with copula function," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 93(2), pages 887-903, September.
    2. Ping Ai & Dingbo Yuan & Chuansheng Xiong, 2018. "Copula-Based Joint Probability Analysis of Compound Floods from Rainstorm and Typhoon Surge: A Case Study of Jiangsu Coastal Areas, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-18, June.
    3. Zheng, Xiao-Wei & Li, Hong-Nan & Gardoni, Paolo, 2023. "Hybrid Bayesian-Copula-based risk assessment for tall buildings subject to wind loads considering various uncertainties," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    4. Verma, Amrit Shankar & Jiang, Zhiyu & Caboni, Marco & Verhoef, Hans & van der Mijle Meijer, Harald & Castro, Saullo G.P. & Teuwen, Julie J.E., 2021. "A probabilistic rainfall model to estimate the leading-edge lifetime of wind turbine blade coating system," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 1435-1455.
    5. Hongshi Xu & Kui Xu & Lingling Bin & Jijian Lian & Chao Ma, 2018. "Joint Risk of Rainfall and Storm Surges during Typhoons in a Coastal City of Haidian Island, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-20, June.

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