IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v86y2017i1d10.1007_s11069-016-2686-1.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Evaluation of the land carrying capacity of major grain-producing areas and the identification of risk factors

Author

Listed:
  • Kun Cheng

    (Northeast Agricultural University)

  • Qiang Fu

    (Northeast Agricultural University
    Collaborative Innovation Centre of Promote Grain Production in Heilongjiang Province
    Key Laboratory of Water-saving Agriculture of Regular Institutions of Higher Education in Heilongjiang Province)

  • Song Cui

    (Northeast Agricultural University)

  • Tian-xiao Li

    (Northeast Agricultural University)

  • Wei Pei

    (Northeast Agricultural University)

  • Dong Liu

    (Northeast Agricultural University)

  • Jun Meng

    (Northeast Agricultural University)

Abstract

Analyzing the risk factors in the land carrying capacity system of major grain-producing areas is crucial for the optimization of land management by decision makers. For that purpose, the major grain-producing areas (Heilongjiang Province) in China are used as an example, with 17 indicators, such as resource, social, economic, coordinated development of an ecological subsystem, selection of the coordination degree of water and soil, effective irrigation rate, grain yield and environmental protection investment rate. This paper establishes an evaluation index system for the land carrying capacity. In addition, on the basis of the values of each index, the initial values were obtained via multiple interval stochastic weight assignments; the evaluation criteria and the land carrying capacity level were determined using a cloud model, and the major risk factors were determined using the degree of risk for each index. The results indicated that the evaluation criteria for the land carrying capacity can be categorized within level I [0.02, 0.24], level II [0.24, 0.40], level III [0.40, 0.55], level IV [0.55, 0.70] and level V [0.70, 0.91]. The land carrying capacity exhibited a continuous rise at each observation station during representative years. The industrial structure and regional development directly affected the land carrying capacity. Therefore, the evaluation results were concluded to be reliable. The risk factors for the land carrying capacity system were different at different periods of time; they included the effective irrigation rate and net income per capita between 2001 and 2008 and transportation land use, solid waste and fertilizer consumption between 2009 and 2013. In addition, between 2001 and 2013, the risk source for the land carrying capacity system transitioned from economic and social subsystems to ecological and social subsystems. The research results provide a decision-making reference for the development, improvement and management of land resources in the study area.

Suggested Citation

  • Kun Cheng & Qiang Fu & Song Cui & Tian-xiao Li & Wei Pei & Dong Liu & Jun Meng, 2017. "Evaluation of the land carrying capacity of major grain-producing areas and the identification of risk factors," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 86(1), pages 263-280, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:86:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s11069-016-2686-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-016-2686-1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-016-2686-1
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-016-2686-1?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zaobao Liu & Jianfu Shao & Weiya Xu & Yongdong Meng, 2013. "Prediction of rock burst classification using the technique of cloud models with attribution weight," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 68(2), pages 549-568, September.
    2. Qiang Fu & Fanli Gong & Qiuxiang Jiang & Tianxiao Li & Kun Cheng & He Dong & Xiaosong Ma, 2014. "Risk assessment of the city water resources system based on Pansystems Observation-Control Model of Periphery," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 71(3), pages 1899-1912, April.
    3. Arrow, Kenneth & Bolin, Bert & Costanza, Robert & Dasgupta, Partha & Folke, Carl & Holling, C.S. & Jansson, Bengt-Owe & Levin, Simon & Mäler, Karl-Göran & Perrings, Charles & Pimentel, David, 1996. "Economic growth, carrying capacity, and the environment," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(1), pages 104-110, February.
    4. Wei Pei & Qiang Fu & Dong Liu & Tian-xiao Li & Kun Cheng, 2016. "Assessing agricultural drought vulnerability in the Sanjiang Plain based on an improved projection pursuit model," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 82(1), pages 683-701, May.
    5. Costanza, Robert, 1995. "Economic growth, carrying capacity, and the environment," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 89-90, November.
    6. Kun Cheng & Qiang Fu & Tianxiao Li & Qiuxiang Jiang & Wei Liu, 2015. "Regional food security risk assessment under the coordinated development of water resources," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 78(1), pages 603-619, August.
    7. Zhang, Z. & Lu, W.X. & Zhao, Y. & Song, W.B., 2014. "Development tendency analysis and evaluation of the water ecological carrying capacity in the Siping area of Jilin Province in China based on system dynamics and analytic hierarchy process," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 275(C), pages 9-21.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jia Gao & Rongrong Zhao & Yuxin Zhan, 2022. "Land Comprehensive Carrying Capacity of Major Grain-Producing Areas in Northeast China: Spatial–Temporal Evolution, Obstacle Factors and Regulatory Policies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-14, September.
    2. Hefeng Wang & Yuan Cao & Xiaohu Wu & Ao Zhao & Yi Xie, 2022. "Estimation and Potential Analysis of Land Population Carrying Capacity in Shanghai Metropolis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(14), pages 1-20, July.
    3. Yu Liu & Fangchen Shi & Hongman He & Liyin Shen & Wenzhu Luo & Lingyun Sun, 2021. "Study on the Matching Degree between Land Resources Carrying Capacity and Industrial Development in Main Cities of Xinjiang, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(19), pages 1-17, September.
    4. Guangming Cui & Xuliang Zhang & Zhaohui Zhang & Yinghui Cao & Xiujun Liu, 2019. "Comprehensive Land Carrying Capacities of the Cities in the Shandong Peninsula Blue Economic Zone and their Spatio-Temporal Variations," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-12, January.
    5. Jia Gao & Rongrong Zhao & Ge Song & Yuxin Zhan & Yaohui Zhu, 2022. "Spatial–Temporal Evolution Patterns and Regulatory Strategies for Land Resource Carrying Capacity of China’s Major Grain-Producing Areas," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-17, November.
    6. Bing Jiang & Wenjie Tang & Meijia Li & Guangchao Yang & Xiaoshang Deng & Lihang Cui, 2023. "Assessing Land Resource Carrying Capacity in China’s Main Grain-Producing Areas: Spatial–Temporal Evolution, Coupling Coordination, and Obstacle Factors," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-26, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Edyta Kiedrzyńska & Marcin Kiedrzyński & Maciej Zalewski, 2015. "Sustainable floodplain management for flood prevention and water quality improvement," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 76(2), pages 955-977, March.
    2. Zhimin Zhang & Guoli Ou & Ayman Elshkaki & Ruilin Liu, 2022. "Evaluation of Regional Carrying Capacity under Economic-Social-Resource-Environment Complex System: A Case Study of the Yangtze River Economic Belt," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-20, June.
    3. Yi-ping Fang & Fu-biao Zhu & Shu-hua Yi & Xiao-ping Qiu & Yong-jiang Ding, 2021. "Ecological carrying capacity of alpine grassland in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau based on the structural dynamics method," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(8), pages 12550-12578, August.
    4. Opschoor, J. (Hans) B., 1995. "Ecospace and the fall and rise of throughput intensity," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 137-140, November.
    5. Kaika, Dimitra & Zervas, Efthimios, 2013. "The environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) theory. Part B: Critical issues," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1403-1411.
    6. G. Mythili & Shibashis Mukherjee, 2011. "Examining Environmental Kuznets Curve for river effluents in India," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 627-640, June.
    7. George Halkos & Iacovos Psarianos, 2016. "Exploring the effect of including the environment in the neoclassical growth model," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 18(3), pages 339-358, July.
    8. Carmen van der Merwe & Martin de Wit, 2021. "An In-Depth Investigation into the Relationship Between Municipal Solid Waste Generation and Economic Growth in the City of Cape Town," Working Papers 07/2021, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics, revised 2021.
    9. Thomas Bolognesi, 2015. "The water vulnerability of metro and megacities: An investigation of structural determinants," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2), pages 123-133, May.
    10. Figge, Frank & Hahn, Tobias & Barkemeyer, Ralf, 2014. "The If, How and Where of assessing sustainable resource use," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 274-283.
    11. Rothman, Dale S., 1998. "Environmental Kuznets curves--real progress or passing the buck?: A case for consumption-based approaches," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 177-194, May.
    12. B. Venkatraja, 2021. "Does China exhibit any evidence of an Environmental Kuznets Curve? An ARDL bounds testing approach," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 1, pages 88-110,111-.
    13. Andreoni, James & Levinson, Arik, 2001. "The simple analytics of the environmental Kuznets curve," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 269-286, May.
    14. W. Neil Adger & Jennifer Hodbod, 2014. "Ecological and social resilience," Chapters, in: Giles Atkinson & Simon Dietz & Eric Neumayer & Matthew Agarwala (ed.), Handbook of Sustainable Development, chapter 6, pages 91-102, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    15. Costantini, Valeria & Monni, Salvatore, 2008. "Environment, human development and economic growth," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(4), pages 867-880, February.
    16. Himayatullah Khan & Ehsan Inamullah & Khadija Shams, 2009. "Population, environment and poverty in Pakistan: linkages and empirical evidence," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 11(2), pages 375-392, April.
    17. Funk, Matt, 2008. "On the Problem of Sustainable Economic Development: A Theoretical Solution to this Prisoner's Dilemma," MPRA Paper 19025, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 08 Jun 2008.
    18. Marta Santagata & Enrico Ivaldi & Riccardo Soliani, 2019. "Development and Governance in the Ex-Soviet Union: An Empirical Inquiry," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 141(1), pages 157-190, January.
    19. Hörisch, Jacob & Ortas, Eduardo & Schaltegger, Stefan & Álvarez, Igor, 2015. "Environmental effects of sustainability management tools: An empirical analysis of large companies," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 241-249.
    20. Baumgärtner, Stefan & Quaas, Martin F., 2009. "Ecological-economic viability as a criterion of strong sustainability under uncertainty," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(7), pages 2008-2020, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:86:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s11069-016-2686-1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.