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Identification of potentially dangerous glacial lakes in the northern Tien Shan

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  • Tobias Bolch
  • Juliane Peters
  • Alexandr Yegorov
  • Biswajeet Pradhan
  • Manfred Buchroithner
  • Victor Blagoveshchensky

Abstract

Like in many other parts of the world, the glaciers in northern Tien Shan are receding, and the permafrost is thawing. Concomitantly, glacial lakes are developing. Historically, outbursts of these glacial lakes have resulted in severe hazards for infrastructures and livelihood. Multi-temporal space imageries are an ideal means to study and monitor glaciers and glacial lakes over large areas. Geomorphometric analysis and modelling allows to estimate the potential danger for glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). This paper presents a comprehensive approach by coupling of remote sensing, geomorphometric analyses aided with GIS modelling for the identification of potentially dangerous glacial lakes. We suggest a classification scheme based on an additive ratio scale in order to prioritise sites for detailed investigations. The identification and monitoring of glacial lakes was carried out semi-automatically using band ratioing and the normalised difference water index (NDWI) based on multi-temporal space imagery from the years 1971 to 2008 using Corona, ASTER and Landsat data. The results were manually edited when required. The probability of the growth of a glacial lake was estimated by analysing glacier changes, glacier motion and slope analysis. A permafrost model was developed based on geomorphometric parameters, solar radiation and regionalised temperature conditions which permitted to assess the influence of potential permafrost thawing. Finally, a GIS-based model was applied to simulate the possibly affected area of lake outbursts. The findings of this study indicate an increasing number and area of glacial lakes in the northern Tien Shan region. We identified several lakes with a medium to high potential for an outburst after a classification according to their outburst probability and their downstream impact. These lakes should be investigated more in detail. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2011

Suggested Citation

  • Tobias Bolch & Juliane Peters & Alexandr Yegorov & Biswajeet Pradhan & Manfred Buchroithner & Victor Blagoveshchensky, 2011. "Identification of potentially dangerous glacial lakes in the northern Tien Shan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 59(3), pages 1691-1714, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:59:y:2011:i:3:p:1691-1714
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-011-9860-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Aldar P. Gorbunov & Sergei S. Marchenko & Eduard V. Seversky, 2004. "The thermal environment of blocky materials in the mountains of Central Asia," Permafrost and Periglacial Processes, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 15(1), pages 95-98, January.
    2. Felix Keller, 1992. "Automated mapping of mountain permafrost using the program PERMAKART within the geographical information system ARC/INFO," Permafrost and Periglacial Processes, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 3(2), pages 133-138, April.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Taigang Zhang & Weicai Wang & Baosheng An & Lele Wei, 2023. "Enhanced glacial lake activity threatens numerous communities and infrastructure in the Third Pole," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-12, December.
    2. Lalan Kumar Jha & Deepak Khare, 2017. "Detection and delineation of glacial lakes and identification of potentially dangerous lakes of Dhauliganga basin in the Himalaya by remote sensing techniques," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 85(1), pages 301-327, January.
    3. Sally Rangecroft & Andrew J. Suggitt & Karen Anderson & Stephan Harrison, 2016. "Future climate warming and changes to mountain permafrost in the Bolivian Andes," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 137(1), pages 231-243, July.
    4. S. K. Allen & A. Linsbauer & S. S. Randhawa & C. Huggel & P. Rana & A. Kumari, 2016. "Glacial lake outburst flood risk in Himachal Pradesh, India: an integrative and anticipatory approach considering current and future threats," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 84(3), pages 1741-1763, December.
    5. Ruoshen Lin & Gang Mei & Ziyang Liu & Ning Xi & Xiaona Zhang, 2021. "Susceptibility Analysis of Glacier Debris Flow by Investigating the Changes in Glaciers Based on Remote Sensing: A Case Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(13), pages 1-23, June.

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