IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v81y2016i3d10.1007_s11069-015-2143-6.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Natural hydroclimatic forcing of historical lake volume fluctuations at Devils Lake, North Dakota (USA)

Author

Listed:
  • Paul E. Todhunter

    (University of North Dakota)

  • Rhonda Fietzek-DeVries

    (University of North Dakota)

Abstract

Devils Lake, a terminal saline lake in eastern North Dakota, has experienced catastrophic flooding over the past two decades producing direct damages in excess of $1 billion ($USD). We use three long-term datasets to examine the temporal coherence between historical lake fluctuations and basic hydroclimatic drivers. Monthly precipitation and mean monthly air temperature data are used to characterize long-term precipitation delivery and evaporative demand. Monthly water balance data for a representative location are used to assess basin soil moisture conditions. A lake volume time series documents lake volume fluctuation in response to long-term precipitation and regional soil moisture conditions. Three variables are derived from the datasets, each characterizing a different aspect of the region’s hydroclimatology. A rescaling technique is applied to each variable to examine the temporal coherence and relative patterns of the variables and to identify distinct homogeneous hydroclimatic regimes during the historical period. The three rescaled variables show strong temporal coherence and confirm 1980 as an abrupt transition year between two distinct long-term hydroclimatic modes. Mode 1, a longer and drier phase, runs from 1907 to 1980, while mode 2, a shorter and wetter phase, extends from 1981 to the present. Multi-decadal and century-scale fluctuations between these two modes are the key drivers of long-term lake volume fluctuations, upon which interannual- and interdecadal-scale climatic variability are superimposed. The similar rates of change among the rescaled variables provides evidence in support of the conclusion that long-term natural hydroclimatological variability is the primary driver of observed lake volume changes at Devils Lake during the Twentieth Century and provides a foundation upon which to evaluate the potential contributing effects of anthropogenic climate change, and human alterations of the land use hydrology.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul E. Todhunter & Rhonda Fietzek-DeVries, 2016. "Natural hydroclimatic forcing of historical lake volume fluctuations at Devils Lake, North Dakota (USA)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 81(3), pages 1515-1532, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:81:y:2016:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-015-2143-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-015-2143-6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-015-2143-6
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-015-2143-6?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gerardo Benito & Michel Lang & Mariano Barriendos & M. Llasat & Felix Francés & Taha Ouarda & Varyl Thorndycraft & Yehouda Enzel & Andras Bardossy & Denis Coeur & Bernard Bobée, 2004. "Use of Systematic, Palaeoflood and Historical Data for the Improvement of Flood Risk Estimation. Review of Scientific Methods," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 31(3), pages 623-643, March.
    2. Paul Todhunter & Bradley Rundquist, 2008. "Pervasive wetland flooding in the glacial drift prairie of North Dakota (USA)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 46(1), pages 73-88, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Salih Muhammad Awadh & Ahmed H. Al-Sulttani & Zaher Mundher Yaseen, 2022. "Temporal dynamic drought interpretation of Sawa Lake: case study located at the Southern Iraqi region," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 112(1), pages 619-638, May.
    2. Owen P. McKenna & David M. Mushet & Donald O. Rosenberry & James W. LaBaugh, 2017. "Evidence for a climate-induced ecohydrological state shift in wetland ecosystems of the southern Prairie Pothole Region," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 145(3), pages 273-287, December.
    3. P. E. Todhunter, 2021. "Hydrological basis of the Devils Lake, North Dakota (USA), terminal lake flood disaster," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 106(3), pages 2797-2824, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Huaibin Wei & Liyuan Zhang & Jing Liu, 2022. "Hydrodynamic Modelling and Flood Risk Analysis of Urban Catchments under Multiple Scenarios: A Case Study of Dongfeng Canal District, Zhengzhou," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(22), pages 1-18, November.
    2. Rui-Song Quan, 2014. "Rainstorm waterlogging risk assessment in central urban area of Shanghai based on multiple scenario simulation," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 73(3), pages 1569-1585, September.
    3. Yijun Shi & Guofang Zhai & Shutian Zhou & Yuwen Lu & Wei Chen & Jinyang Deng, 2019. "How Can Cities Respond to Flood Disaster Risks under Multi-Scenario Simulation? A Case Study of Xiamen, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(4), pages 1-18, February.
    4. Michalis Diakakis & Spyridon Mavroulis & Giorgos Deligiannakis, 2012. "Floods in Greece, a statistical and spatial approach," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 62(2), pages 485-500, June.
    5. F. Luino & A. Belloni & L. Turconi & F. Faccini & A. Mantovani & P. Fassi & F. Marincioni & G. Caldiroli, 2018. "A historical geomorphological approach to flood hazard management along the shore of an alpine lake (northern Italy)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 94(1), pages 471-488, October.
    6. Junfei Chen & Juan Ji & Huimin Wang & Menghua Deng & Cong Yu, 2020. "Risk Assessment of Urban Rainstorm Disaster Based on Multi-Layer Weighted Principal Component Analysis: A Case Study of Nanjing, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(15), pages 1-19, July.
    7. Mel Oliveira Guirro & Gean Paulo Michel, 2023. "Hydrological and hydrodynamic reconstruction of a flood event in a poorly monitored basin: a case study in the Rolante River, Brazil," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 117(1), pages 723-743, May.
    8. Meiling Zhou & Xiuli Feng & Kaikai Liu & Chi Zhang & Lijian Xie & Xiaohe Wu, 2021. "An Alternative Risk Assessment Model of Urban Waterlogging: A Case Study of Ningbo City," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-20, January.
    9. Melissa Haeffner & Dana Hellman, 2020. "The social geometry of collaborative flood risk management: a hydrosocial case study of Tillamook County, Oregon," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 103(3), pages 3303-3325, September.
    10. Hao Chen & Zongxue Xu & Yang Liu & Yixuan Huang & Fang Yang, 2022. "Urban Flood Risk Assessment Based on Dynamic Population Distribution and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(24), pages 1-17, December.
    11. Alena Kadetova & Yan Radziminovich, 2014. "The catastrophic flood in Transbaikalia (Central Asia) in 1897: case study," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 72(2), pages 423-441, June.
    12. Brookhuis, B.J. & Hein, L.G., 2016. "The value of the flood control service of tropical forests: A case study for Trinidad," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 118-124.
    13. Anouk Bomers & Ralph M. J. Schielen & Suzanne J. M. H. Hulscher, 2019. "Consequences of dike breaches and dike overflow in a bifurcating river system," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 97(1), pages 309-334, May.
    14. José Vladimir Morales-Ruano & Maximino Reyes-Umaña & Francisco Rubén Sandoval-Vázquez & Hilda Janet Arellano-Wences & Justiniano González-González & Columba Rodríguez-Alviso, 2022. "Flood Susceptibility in the Lower Course of the Coyuca River, Mexico: A Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-24, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:81:y:2016:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-015-2143-6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.