IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v78y2015i1p61-74.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Effects of various combinations of boundary layer schemes and microphysics schemes on the track forecasts of tropical cyclones over the South China Sea

Author

Listed:
  • Shumin Chen
  • Yu-Kun Qian
  • Shiqiu Peng

Abstract

This study investigates the effects of various combinations of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes and the microphysics schemes on the numerical forecasting of tropical cyclones (TCs). Using different combinations of three PBL schemes (YSU, MYJ and MYNN2) and four microphysics schemes (Ferrier, Goddard, WSM6 and Lin), a number of experiments are carried out for five landed TCs in the South China Sea during 2012. Results show that the combination of the YSU and Ferrier schemes performs the best for the TC track forecasting, although it does not perform the best for the forecast of precipitation. Further analysis reveals that the best performance of the track forecast by the combination of the YSU and Ferrier schemes mainly attributes to a more accurate steering flow as well as TC wind structure produced by this combination. These results provide a valuable reference to the operational numerical forecasting of TC tracks in the future. Copyright The Author(s) 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Shumin Chen & Yu-Kun Qian & Shiqiu Peng, 2015. "Effects of various combinations of boundary layer schemes and microphysics schemes on the track forecasts of tropical cyclones over the South China Sea," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 78(1), pages 61-74, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:78:y:2015:i:1:p:61-74
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-015-1697-7
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11069-015-1697-7
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-015-1697-7?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kerry Emanuel, 2005. "Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years," Nature, Nature, vol. 436(7051), pages 686-688, August.
    2. Alexander Khain & Barry Lynn, 2011. "Simulation of Tropical Cyclones Using Spectral Bin Microphysics," Chapters, in: Anthony Rocco Lupo (ed.), Recent Hurricane Research - Climate, Dynamics, and Societal Impacts, IntechOpen.
    3. D. Rao & Dasari Prasad, 2007. "Sensitivity of tropical cyclone intensification to boundary layer and convective processes," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 41(3), pages 429-445, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. D. Bala Subrahamanyam & Radhika Ramachandran & K. Nalini & Freddy P. Paul & S. Roshny, 2019. "Performance evaluation of COSMO numerical weather prediction model in prediction of OCKHI: one of the rarest very severe cyclonic storms over the Arabian Sea—a case study," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 96(1), pages 431-459, March.
    2. P. Raju & Jayaraman Potty & U. Mohanty, 2012. "Prediction of severe tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal during 2007–2010 using high-resolution mesoscale model," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 63(3), pages 1361-1374, September.
    3. Stanley Changnon, 2009. "Characteristics of severe Atlantic hurricanes in the United States: 1949–2006," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 48(3), pages 329-337, March.
    4. Lianjie Qin & Laiyin Zhu & Baoyin Liu & Zixuan Li & Yugang Tian & Gordon Mitchell & Shifei Shen & Wei Xu & Jianguo Chen, 2024. "Global expansion of tropical cyclone precipitation footprint," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
    5. Teh, Su Yean & DeAngelis, Donald L. & Sternberg, Leonel da Silveira Lobo & Miralles-Wilhelm, Fernando R. & Smith, Thomas J. & Koh, Hock-Lye, 2008. "A simulation model for projecting changes in salinity concentrations and species dominance in the coastal margin habitats of the Everglades," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 213(2), pages 245-256.
    6. Yanos Zylberberg, 2010. "Natural natural disasters and economic disruption," PSE Working Papers halshs-00564946, HAL.
    7. S. Seo, 2014. "Estimating Tropical Cyclone Damages Under Climate Change in the Southern Hemisphere Using Reported Damages," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 58(3), pages 473-490, July.
    8. Nicola Ranger & Falk Nieh�rster, 2011. "Deep uncertainty in long-term hurricane risk: scenario generation and implications for future climate experiments," GRI Working Papers 51, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    9. Jun Wang & Zhenlou Chen & Shiyuan Xu & Beibei Hu, 2013. "Medium-scale natural disaster risk scenario analysis: a case study of Pingyang County, Wenzhou, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 66(2), pages 1205-1220, March.
    10. Geoffrey Heal & Howard Kunreuther, 2010. "Environment and Energy: Catastrophic Liabilities from Nuclear Power Plants," NBER Chapters, in: Measuring and Managing Federal Financial Risk, pages 235-257, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Laura A. Bakkensen & Robert O. Mendelsohn, 2016. "Risk and Adaptation: Evidence from Global Hurricane Damages and Fatalities," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 3(3), pages 555-587.
    12. Davlasheridze, Meri & Fisher-Vanden, Karen & Allen Klaiber, H., 2017. "The effects of adaptation measures on hurricane induced property losses: Which FEMA investments have the highest returns?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 93-114.
    13. Camila I. Donatti & Celia A. Harvey & David Hole & Steven N. Panfil & Hanna Schurman, 2020. "Indicators to measure the climate change adaptation outcomes of ecosystem-based adaptation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 158(3), pages 413-433, February.
    14. Don Driscoll & Adam Felton & Philip Gibbons & Annika Felton & Nicola Munro & David Lindenmayer, 2012. "Priorities in policy and management when existing biodiversity stressors interact with climate-change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 111(3), pages 533-557, April.
    15. Dasgupta, Susmita & Laplante, Benoit & Murray, Siobhan & Wheeler, David, 2009. "Sea-level rise and storm surges : a comparative analysis of impacts in developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4901, The World Bank.
    16. R. S. Akhila & J. Kuttippurath & R. Rahul & A. Chakraborty, 2022. "Genesis and simultaneous occurrences of the super cyclone Kyarr and extremely severe cyclone Maha in the Arabian Sea in October 2019," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 113(2), pages 1133-1150, September.
    17. Raphaël Rousseau-Rizzi & Kerry Emanuel, 2022. "Natural and anthropogenic contributions to the hurricane drought of the 1970s–1980s," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    18. Daron Acemoglu & Philippe Aghion & Leonardo Bursztyn & David Hemous, 2012. "The Environment and Directed Technical Change," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(1), pages 131-166, February.
    19. Ikefuji, Masako & Horii, Ryo, 2012. "Natural disasters in a two-sector model of endogenous growth," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(9-10), pages 784-796.
    20. Austin Becker & Michele Acciaro & Regina Asariotis & Edgard Cabrera & Laurent Cretegny & Philippe Crist & Miguel Esteban & Andrew Mather & Steve Messner & Susumu Naruse & Adolf Ng & Stefan Rahmstorf &, 2013. "A note on climate change adaptation for seaports: a challenge for global ports, a challenge for global society," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 120(4), pages 683-695, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:78:y:2015:i:1:p:61-74. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.