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A fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model for flood risk based on the combination weight of game theory

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  • Chengguang Lai
  • Xiaohong Chen
  • Xiaoyu Chen
  • Zhaoli Wang
  • Xushu Wu
  • Shiwei Zhao

Abstract

As a result of global warming, the occurrences of floods have increased in frequency and severity. Flooding often occurs near rivers and low-lying areas, which makes such areas higher-risk locations. Flood-risk evaluation represents an essential analytic step in preventing floods and reducing losses. However, the uncertainty and nonlinear relation between evaluation indices and risk levels are always difficult points in the evaluation process. Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE), an effective method for solving random, fuzzy and multi-index problems, has led to progress in understanding this relation. Thus, in this study, an assessment model based on FCE is adopted to evaluate flood risk in the Dongjiang River Basin. To correct the one-sidedness of the single weighting method, a combination weight integrating subjective weight and objective weight is adopted based on game theory. The evaluation results show that high-risk areas are mainly located in regions that include unfavorable terrain, developed industries and dense population. These high-risk areas appropriately coincide with the integrated risk zoning map and inundation areas of historical floods, proving that the evaluation model is feasible and rational. The results also can be used as references for the prevention and reduction of floods and other applications in the Dongjiang River Basin. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Chengguang Lai & Xiaohong Chen & Xiaoyu Chen & Zhaoli Wang & Xushu Wu & Shiwei Zhao, 2015. "A fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model for flood risk based on the combination weight of game theory," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 77(2), pages 1243-1259, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:77:y:2015:i:2:p:1243-1259
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-015-1645-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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