IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v104y2020i1d10.1007_s11069-020-04205-3.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A multi-agent-based model for sustainable governance of urban flood risk mitigation measures

Author

Listed:
  • Kerim Koc

    (Yildiz Technical University)

  • Zeynep Işık

    (Yildiz Technical University)

Abstract

Consequences of urban floods increased and diversified in terms of social, economical and environmental effects, due to the dense and unplanned urbanization in areas at risk of flooding. Reducing the potential damage of flood is one of the most effective and sustainable reduction strategies of flood risks through adopting adequate urban flood risk mitigation measures (UFRM). The main objective of this study is to ascertain urban floods and develop a model identifying UFRM in accordance with their importance in reducing the effects of floods by employing the concept of multi-agent systems. Social, economical and environmental-based agents were modelled in the agent environment to consider the three dimensions of sustainability in the proposed model. Thirteen negotiation strategies were developed for the agents to negotiate with each other. An illustrative case study was then performed to test the proposed model features, and the results were thoroughly analysed. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to specify the most sensitive strategies over the changing fuzziness level of agents. It was observed that the best strategy differs with respect to short-, medium- and long-term gains significantly, which, in turn, lead to alterations in the list of UFRM. This could provide different risk mitigation plans for different regions with their changing resources. In summary, this study provides an innovative multi-agent-based model that can be performed to specify the most urgent UFRM which can be used by disaster coordination and management authorities as a decision-making input.

Suggested Citation

  • Kerim Koc & Zeynep Işık, 2020. "A multi-agent-based model for sustainable governance of urban flood risk mitigation measures," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 104(1), pages 1079-1110, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:104:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1007_s11069-020-04205-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-04205-3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-020-04205-3
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-020-04205-3?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nguyen Dang & Mukand Babel & Huynh Luong, 2011. "Evaluation of food risk parameters in the Day River Flood Diversion Area, Red River Delta, Vietnam," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 56(1), pages 169-194, January.
    2. Enliang Guo & Jiquan Zhang & Xuehui Ren & Qi Zhang & Zhongyi Sun, 2014. "Integrated risk assessment of flood disaster based on improved set pair analysis and the variable fuzzy set theory in central Liaoning Province, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 74(2), pages 947-965, November.
    3. Xiao-ling Yang & Jie-hua Ding & Hui Hou, 2013. "Application of a triangular fuzzy AHP approach for flood risk evaluation and response measures analysis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 68(2), pages 657-674, September.
    4. Michelle Woodward & Zoran Kapelan & Ben Gouldby, 2014. "Adaptive Flood Risk Management Under Climate Change Uncertainty Using Real Options and Optimization," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(1), pages 75-92, January.
    5. Ebrahim Ahmadisharaf & Alfred J. Kalyanapu & Eun-Sung Chung, 2017. "Sustainability-Based Flood Hazard Mapping of the Swannanoa River Watershed," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(10), pages 1-15, September.
    6. Yoram Wind & Thomas L. Saaty, 1980. "Marketing Applications of the Analytic Hierarchy Process," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 26(7), pages 641-658, July.
    7. Saaty, Thomas L., 1990. "How to make a decision: The analytic hierarchy process," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 9-26, September.
    8. Alexander, Meghan & Priest, Sally & Mees, Hannelore, 2016. "A framework for evaluating flood risk governance," Environmental Science & Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 38-47.
    9. Anna Vari & Joanne Linnerooth‐Bayer & Zoltan Ferencz, 2003. "Stakeholder Views on Flood Risk Management in Hungary's Upper Tisza Basin," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 23(3), pages 585-600, June.
    10. Jean-Claude Thouret & Susanne Ettinger & Mathieu Guitton & Olivier Santoni & Christina Magill & Kim Martelli & Giulio Zuccaro & Victor Revilla & Juan Charca & Anita Arguedas, 2014. "Assessing physical vulnerability in large cities exposed to flash floods and debris flows: the case of Arequipa (Peru)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 73(3), pages 1771-1815, September.
    11. Chen Wang & Kaile Zhou & Lanlan Li & Shanlin Yang, 2018. "Multi-agent simulation-based residential electricity pricing schemes design and user selection decision-making," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 90(3), pages 1309-1327, February.
    12. Haer, Toon & Botzen, W.J. Wouter & Aerts, Jeroen C.J.H., 2016. "The effectiveness of flood risk communication strategies and the influence of social networks—Insights from an agent-based model," Environmental Science & Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 44-52.
    13. Stefanos Stefanidis & Dimitrios Stathis, 2013. "Assessment of flood hazard based on natural and anthropogenic factors using analytic hierarchy process (AHP)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 68(2), pages 569-585, September.
    14. Evers, Mariele & Jonoski, Andreja & Almoradie, Adrian & Lange, Leonie, 2016. "Collaborative decision making in sustainable flood risk management: A socio-technical approach and tools for participatory governance," Environmental Science & Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(P2), pages 335-344.
    15. Carlos Bana e Costa & Paula Antão da Silva & Francisco Nunes Correia, 2004. "Multicriteria Evaluation of Flood Control Measures: The Case of Ribeira do Livramento," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 18(3), pages 263-283, June.
    16. Heejun Chang & Jon Franczyk & Changhwan Kim, 2009. "What is responsible for increasing flood risks? The case of Gangwon Province, Korea," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 48(3), pages 339-354, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Koc, Kerim & Ekmekcioğlu, Ömer & Işık, Zeynep, 2023. "Developing a probabilistic decision-making model for reinforced sustainable supplier selection," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    2. Ioannis Kougkoulos & Myriam Merad & Simon J. Cook & Ioannis Andredakis, 2021. "Floods in Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur and lessons for French flood risk governance," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 109(2), pages 1959-1980, November.
    3. Wenchao Qi & Chao Ma & Hongshi Xu & Zifan Chen & Kai Zhao & Hao Han, 2021. "A review on applications of urban flood models in flood mitigation strategies," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 108(1), pages 31-62, August.
    4. Chao Ma & Wenchao Qi & Hongshi Xu & Kai Zhao, 2022. "An integrated quantitative framework to assess the impacts of disaster-inducing factors on causing urban flood," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 113(3), pages 1903-1924, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chengguang Lai & Xiaohong Chen & Xiaoyu Chen & Zhaoli Wang & Xushu Wu & Shiwei Zhao, 2015. "A fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model for flood risk based on the combination weight of game theory," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 77(2), pages 1243-1259, June.
    2. Chengguang Lai & Xiaohong Chen & Zhaoli Wang & Haijun Yu & Xiaoyan Bai, 2020. "Flood Risk Assessment and Regionalization from Past and Future Perspectives at Basin Scale," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(7), pages 1399-1417, July.
    3. Kadriye Burcu Yavuz Kumlu & Şule Tüdeş, 2019. "Determination of earthquake-risky areas in Yalova City Center (Marmara region, Turkey) using GIS-based multicriteria decision-making techniques (analytical hierarchy process and technique for order pr," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 96(3), pages 999-1018, April.
    4. Dimitrios Myronidis & Charalambos Papageorgiou & Stavros Theophanous, 2016. "Landslide susceptibility mapping based on landslide history and analytic hierarchy process (AHP)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 81(1), pages 245-263, March.
    5. Ebrahim Ahmadisharaf & Alfred J. Kalyanapu & Eun-Sung Chung, 2017. "Sustainability-Based Flood Hazard Mapping of the Swannanoa River Watershed," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(10), pages 1-15, September.
    6. M. M. Yagoub & Aishah A. Alsereidi & Elfadil A. Mohamed & Punitha Periyasamy & Reem Alameri & Salama Aldarmaki & Yaqein Alhashmi, 2020. "Newspapers as a validation proxy for GIS modeling in Fujairah, United Arab Emirates: identifying flood-prone areas," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 104(1), pages 111-141, October.
    7. Ireneusz Laks & Zbigniew Walczak, 2020. "Efficiency of Polder Modernization for Flood Protection. Case Study of Golina Polder (Poland)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(19), pages 1-27, September.
    8. Yenan Wu & Ping-an Zhong & Yu Zhang & Bin Xu & Biao Ma & Kun Yan, 2015. "Integrated flood risk assessment and zonation method: a case study in Huaihe River basin, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 78(1), pages 635-651, August.
    9. Enliang Guo & Jiquan Zhang & Xuehui Ren & Qi Zhang & Zhongyi Sun, 2014. "Integrated risk assessment of flood disaster based on improved set pair analysis and the variable fuzzy set theory in central Liaoning Province, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 74(2), pages 947-965, November.
    10. Jiayang Zhang & Yangbo Chen, 2019. "Risk Assessment of Flood Disaster Induced by Typhoon Rainstorms in Guangdong Province, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-20, May.
    11. Dimitrios Myronidis & Charalambos Papageorgiou & Stavros Theophanous, 2016. "Landslide susceptibility mapping based on landslide history and analytic hierarchy process (AHP)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 81(1), pages 245-263, March.
    12. V. Srinivasan & G. Shainesh & Anand K. Sharma, 2015. "An approach to prioritize customer-based, cost-effective service enhancements," The Service Industries Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(14), pages 747-762, October.
    13. Moumita Palchaudhuri & Sujata Biswas, 2016. "Application of AHP with GIS in drought risk assessment for Puruliya district, India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 84(3), pages 1905-1920, December.
    14. Choudhary, Devendra & Shankar, Ravi, 2012. "An STEEP-fuzzy AHP-TOPSIS framework for evaluation and selection of thermal power plant location: A case study from India," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 510-521.
    15. Madjid Tavana & Mariya Sodenkamp & Leena Suhl, 2010. "A soft multi-criteria decision analysis model with application to the European Union enlargement," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 181(1), pages 393-421, December.
    16. Alpana Agarwal & Divina Raghav, 2023. "Analysing Determinants of Employee Performance Based on Reverse Mentoring and Employer Branding Using Analytic Hierarchical Process," Management and Labour Studies, XLRI Jamshedpur, School of Business Management & Human Resources, vol. 48(3), pages 343-358, August.
    17. Sadiq Ullah & Mudassar Iqbal & Muhammad Waseem & Adnan Abbas & Muhammad Masood & Ghulam Nabi & Muhammad Atiq Ur Rehman Tariq & Muhammad Sadam, 2024. "Potential Sites for Rainwater Harvesting Focusing on the Sustainable Development Goals Using Remote Sensing and Geographical Information System," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(21), pages 1-23, October.
    18. Wenshuai Wu & Gang Kou, 2016. "A group consensus model for evaluating real estate investment alternatives," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 2(1), pages 1-10, December.
    19. Andre Bender & Allan Din & Philippe Favarger & Martin Hoesli & Janne Laakso, 1997. "An Analysis of Perceptions Concerning the Environmental Quality of Housing in Geneva," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 34(3), pages 503-513, March.
    20. Fabio Blanco-Mesa & Anna M. Gil-Lafuente & José M. Merigó, 2018. "Subjective stakeholder dynamics relationships treatment: a methodological approach using fuzzy decision-making," Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory, Springer, vol. 24(4), pages 441-472, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:104:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1007_s11069-020-04205-3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.