IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v105y2021i2d10.1007_s11069-020-04372-3.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Evaluating pluvial flood hazard for highly urbanised cities: a case study of the Pearl River Delta Region in China

Author

Listed:
  • Wei Jian

    (Nanyang Technological University)

  • Shanshan Li

    (South China University of Technology)

  • Chengguang Lai

    (South China University of Technology)

  • Zhaoli Wang

    (South China University of Technology)

  • Xiangju Cheng

    (South China University of Technology)

  • Edmond Yat-Man Lo

    (Nanyang Technological University
    Nanyang Technological University
    Sino-Singapore International Joint Research Institute (SSIJRI))

  • Tso-Chien Pan

    (Nanyang Technological University
    Nanyang Technological University
    Sino-Singapore International Joint Research Institute (SSIJRI))

Abstract

Rapid urbanisation and economic growth in developing Asian countries have exacerbated their exposure to flood hazards, particularly evident in low-lying urban cities that are currently facing increasing risks from extreme precipitations, likely made worse by the impending climate change. We present a set of simplified indices representative of the characteristics of rainfall-run-off process for evaluating pluvial flood hazard using the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. The highly urbanised Pearl River Delta (PRD) region in southern China is studied as an example of mapping the regional pluvial flood hazard and assessing the socio-economic exposure at risk. The developed hazard map captures the broad patterns of high flood hazard zones when compared with reported surface water flooding hotspots and the PRD riverine flood map from the 2015 Global Assessment Report. Further analysis on the regional socio-economic profiles suggests that most PRD cities are faced with large flood loss potential, with estimates of approximate 23 million people and 2.4 trillion RMB gross domestic product exposed to high flood hazard. Mega cities Guangzhou and Shenzhen top the ranking with over 20–40% of their dense urban settlements in the high flood hazard zone. This highlights the impact of human activities on the natural surface run-off process, and the need for robust flood hazard assessment for better understanding and design of holistic solutions towards more adequate flood mitigation systems for continuous urbanisation and future climate conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Wei Jian & Shanshan Li & Chengguang Lai & Zhaoli Wang & Xiangju Cheng & Edmond Yat-Man Lo & Tso-Chien Pan, 2021. "Evaluating pluvial flood hazard for highly urbanised cities: a case study of the Pearl River Delta Region in China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 105(2), pages 1691-1719, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:105:y:2021:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-020-04372-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-04372-3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-020-04372-3
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-020-04372-3?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stephane Hallegatte & Colin Green & Robert J. Nicholls & Jan Corfee-Morlot, 2013. "Future flood losses in major coastal cities," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(9), pages 802-806, September.
    2. Chengguang Lai & Xiaohong Chen & Xiaoyu Chen & Zhaoli Wang & Xushu Wu & Shiwei Zhao, 2015. "A fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model for flood risk based on the combination weight of game theory," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 77(2), pages 1243-1259, June.
    3. Xinhua Xue & Xingguo Yang, 2014. "Seismic liquefaction potential assessed by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 71(3), pages 2101-2112, April.
    4. Yoram Wind & Thomas L. Saaty, 1980. "Marketing Applications of the Analytic Hierarchy Process," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 26(7), pages 641-658, July.
    5. Zhongyi Sun & Jiquan Zhang & Qi Zhang & Yue Hu & Denghua Yan & Chunyi Wang, 2014. "Integrated risk zoning of drought and waterlogging disasters based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation in Anhui Province, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 71(3), pages 1639-1657, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. M. Kubilay Kelesoglu & Rasim Temur & Sezar Gülbaz & Nurdan Memisoglu Apaydin & Cevza Melek Kazezyılmaz-Alhan & Ilknur Bozbey, 2023. "Site assessment and evaluation of the structural damages after the flood disaster in the Western Black Sea Basin on August 11, 2021," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 116(1), pages 587-618, March.
    2. Gizem Mestav Sarica & Tinger Zhu & Wei Jian & Edmond Yat-Man Lo & Tso-Chien Pan, 2021. "Spatio-temporal dynamics of flood exposure in Shenzhen from present to future," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 48(5), pages 1011-1024, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chengguang Lai & Xiaohong Chen & Xiaoyu Chen & Zhaoli Wang & Xushu Wu & Shiwei Zhao, 2015. "A fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model for flood risk based on the combination weight of game theory," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 77(2), pages 1243-1259, June.
    2. Chengguang Lai & Xiaohong Chen & Zhaoli Wang & Haijun Yu & Xiaoyan Bai, 2020. "Flood Risk Assessment and Regionalization from Past and Future Perspectives at Basin Scale," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(7), pages 1399-1417, July.
    3. Gizem Mestav Sarica & Tinger Zhu & Wei Jian & Edmond Yat-Man Lo & Tso-Chien Pan, 2021. "Spatio-temporal dynamics of flood exposure in Shenzhen from present to future," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 48(5), pages 1011-1024, June.
    4. Abinash Bhattachan & Matthew D. Jurjonas & Priscilla R. Morris & Paul J. Taillie & Lindsey S. Smart & Ryan E. Emanuel & Erin L. Seekamp, 2019. "Linking residential saltwater intrusion risk perceptions to physical exposure of climate change impacts in rural coastal communities of North Carolina," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 97(3), pages 1277-1295, July.
    5. Banai, Reza, 2010. "Evaluation of land use-transportation systems with the Analytic Network Process," The Journal of Transport and Land Use, Center for Transportation Studies, University of Minnesota, vol. 3(1), pages 85-112.
    6. Pishchulov, Grigory & Trautrims, Alexander & Chesney, Thomas & Gold, Stefan & Schwab, Leila, 2019. "The Voting Analytic Hierarchy Process revisited: A revised method with application to sustainable supplier selection," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 166-179.
    7. Seung-Jin Han & Won-Jae Lee & So-Hee Kim & Sang-Hoon Yoon & Hyunwoong Pyun, 2022. "Assessing Expected Long-term Benefits for the Olympic Games: Delphi-AHP Approach from Korean Olympic Experts," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(4), pages 21582440221, December.
    8. Ping Lan & Li Guo & Yaling Zhang & Guanghua Qin & Xiaodong Li & Carlos R. Mello & Elizabeth W. Boyer & Yehui Zhang & Bihang Fan, 2024. "Updating probable maximum precipitation for Hong Kong under intensifying extreme precipitation events," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 177(2), pages 1-20, February.
    9. Seyed Rakhshan & Ali Kamyad & Sohrab Effati, 2015. "Ranking decision-making units by using combination of analytical hierarchical process method and Tchebycheff model in data envelopment analysis," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 226(1), pages 505-525, March.
    10. V. Srinivasan & G. Shainesh & Anand K. Sharma, 2015. "An approach to prioritize customer-based, cost-effective service enhancements," The Service Industries Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(14), pages 747-762, October.
    11. Mónica García-Melón & Blanca Pérez-Gladish & Tomás Gómez-Navarro & Paz Mendez-Rodriguez, 2016. "Assessing mutual funds’ corporate social responsibility: a multistakeholder-AHP based methodology," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 244(2), pages 475-503, September.
    12. Allan Beltrán & David Maddison & Robert J. R. Elliott, 2018. "Assessing the Economic Benefits of Flood Defenses: A Repeat‐Sales Approach," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(11), pages 2340-2367, November.
    13. Luis Pérez-Domínguez & Luis Alberto Rodríguez-Picón & Alejandro Alvarado-Iniesta & David Luviano Cruz & Zeshui Xu, 2018. "MOORA under Pythagorean Fuzzy Set for Multiple Criteria Decision Making," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2018, pages 1-10, April.
    14. Paul L. G. Vlek & Asia Khamzina & Hossein Azadi & Anik Bhaduri & Luna Bharati & Ademola Braimoh & Christopher Martius & Terry Sunderland & Fatemeh Taheri, 2017. "Trade-Offs in Multi-Purpose Land Use under Land Degradation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-19, November.
    15. Céline Grislain-Letrémy & Bertrand Villeneuve, 2019. "Natural disasters, land-use, and insurance," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance Theory, Springer;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 44(1), pages 54-86, March.
    16. Kumar B, Pradeep, 2021. "Changing Objectives of Firms and Managerial Preferences: A Review of Models in Microeconomics," MPRA Paper 106967, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 13 Mar 2021.
    17. Greco, Salvatore & Ishizaka, Alessio & Tasiou, Menelaos & Torrisi, Gianpiero, 2018. "σ-µ efficiency analysis: A new methodology for evaluating units through composite indices," MPRA Paper 83569, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Anirban Mukhopadhyay & Sugata Hazra & Debasish Mitra & C. Hutton & Abhra Chanda & Sandip Mukherjee, 2016. "Characterizing the multi-risk with respect to plausible natural hazards in the Balasore coast, Odisha, India: a multi-criteria analysis (MCA) appraisal," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 80(3), pages 1495-1513, February.
    19. Chamoli, Sunil, 2015. "Hybrid FAHP (fuzzy analytical hierarchy process)-FTOPSIS (fuzzy technique for order preference by similarity of an ideal solution) approach for performance evaluation of the V down perforated baffle r," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 432-442.
    20. H. S. C. Perera & W. K. R. Costa, 2008. "Analytic Hierarchy Process for Selection of Erp Software for Manufacturing Companies," Vision, , vol. 12(4), pages 1-11, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:105:y:2021:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-020-04372-3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.