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Exceedance probability of multiple natural hazards: risk assessment in China’s Yangtze River Delta

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  • Baoyin Liu
  • Yim Siu
  • Gordon Mitchell
  • Wei Xu

Abstract

In recent years, greater attention has been given to advancing the theory and practice of assessing risk from multiple hazards. Most approaches calculate multi-hazard risk by aggregating risk scores for individual hazards and ignore the combined exceedance probability of multiple hazards. We address this problem by developing a simple and practicable multi-hazard risk assessment method that uses information diffusion theory to overcome the difficulty posed by a lack of historical or spatial data on natural hazard-induced loss. China’s Yangtze River Delta region is used as a demonstrative example, and the exceedance probability distribution of multi-hazard risk to human life was calculated using natural hazard disaster life loss data for 1950–2010. Multi-hazard risk to human life is mapped as exceedance probability at different mortality rates and loss at different risk return periods using a geographical information system. Results show that Hangzhou and Ningbo are at a relatively high risk from multiple natural hazards, and Shanghai is at a relatively low risk. For scenarios of 10-, 20- and 50-year risk return periods, there are no significant changes in the risk rank of the cities; Hangzhou, Ningbo and Zhoushan are at a relatively high risk, while Shanghai is at a relatively low risk. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Baoyin Liu & Yim Siu & Gordon Mitchell & Wei Xu, 2013. "Exceedance probability of multiple natural hazards: risk assessment in China’s Yangtze River Delta," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 69(3), pages 2039-2055, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:69:y:2013:i:3:p:2039-2055
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-013-0794-8
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