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Climate prediction experiences in southern Africa 1990–2005 and key outcomes

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  • Mark Jury

Abstract

This paper reviews long-range climate prediction with a focus on experiences in southern Africa from 1990 to 2005 and statistical techniques based on historical replication. The initial growth and use of climate predictions in southern Africa created an understanding of tropical Atlantic and Indian Ocean coupling with Pacific El Niño and the African monsoon, and fostered extensions of the global observing system as a key outcome. An intercomparison of forecast errors highlights optimal scales for model aggregation. Cases of forecast development are analyzed and a tendency for neutral messages is found. South African maize yield exhibits an uptrend (+0.26 T ha −1 /year) since 1992 that may be related to the increased use of Internet and uptake of long-range forecasts. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

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  • Mark Jury, 2013. "Climate prediction experiences in southern Africa 1990–2005 and key outcomes," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 65(3), pages 1883-1894, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:65:y:2013:i:3:p:1883-1894
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-012-0451-7
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    1. Hammer, G. L. & Hansen, J. W. & Phillips, J. G. & Mjelde, J. W. & Hill, H. & Love, A. & Potgieter, A., 2001. "Advances in application of climate prediction in agriculture," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 70(2-3), pages 515-553.
    2. Everingham, Y. L. & Muchow, R. C. & Stone, R. C. & Inman-Bamber, N. G. & Singels, A. & Bezuidenhout, C. N., 2002. "Enhanced risk management and decision-making capability across the sugarcane industry value chain based on seasonal climate forecasts," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 74(3), pages 459-477, December.
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