IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/agisys/v143y2016icp38-48.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Spatial resolution effects on crop yield forecasts: An application to rainfed wheat yield in north Greece with CERES-Wheat

Author

Listed:
  • Mavromatis, T.

Abstract

The present study aims at forecasting hard wheat (Triticum turgidum L. var. durum) yield at seven prediction dates (planting and six 30-day intervals after planting) prior to harvest in northern Greece. It is based on (a) reported crop yields at two relatively high spatial resolution regional levels (three NUTS2 (Nomenclature of Units for Territorial Statistics) and 16 NUTS3 regions) and (b) crop agroclimatic indicators simulated with CERES-Wheat, at four planting dates, for the years 1979–2006. Principal component analysis (PCA) was applied to explore major patterns of joint variability in a number of simulated crop agroclimatic indicators at the selected prediction dates during growing season. Stepwise regression and hindcast were employed for the selection of the modes identified by PCA as predictors in multivariate linear models used for yield forecast. Yield forecasting skill varied to a large extent by the spatial scale, planting date and timing of forecast. When the simulation results were aggregated to the larger spatial level (NUTS2), the cross-validated forecasting skill was rated as moderate in Central Macedonia (CM) (R2=43%) and Thrace (THR) (R2=35.9%) and as low in West Macedonia (WM) (R2=21.5%). Soil water availability to plants was the most important indicator. Except for THR, these forecasts were achieved three months before harvest in CM and four in WM. Compared with the NUTS2 level, yield predictions at the higher resolution spatial level (NUTS3) worsened in 11 and 12 out of 16 NUTS3 regions in terms of R2 and RMSE, respectively. The results demonstrate the potential of this approach and the suitability of CERES-Wheat for regional crop yield forecasting in northern Greece.

Suggested Citation

  • Mavromatis, T., 2016. "Spatial resolution effects on crop yield forecasts: An application to rainfed wheat yield in north Greece with CERES-Wheat," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 38-48.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:143:y:2016:i:c:p:38-48
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2015.12.002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308521X15300603
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.agsy.2015.12.002?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hansen, J. W. & Jones, J. W., 2000. "Scaling-up crop models for climate variability applications," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 43-72, July.
    2. Henry Kaiser, 1958. "The varimax criterion for analytic rotation in factor analysis," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 23(3), pages 187-200, September.
    3. Singh, Anil Kumar & Tripathy, Rojalin & Chopra, Usha Kiran, 2008. "Evaluation of CERES-Wheat and CropSyst models for water-nitrogen interactions in wheat crop," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 95(7), pages 776-786, July.
    4. Li, Baibing & Martin, Elaine B. & Morris, A. Julian, 2002. "On principal component analysis in L1," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 471-474, September.
    5. Hammer, G. L. & Hansen, J. W. & Phillips, J. G. & Mjelde, J. W. & Hill, H. & Love, A. & Potgieter, A., 2001. "Advances in application of climate prediction in agriculture," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 70(2-3), pages 515-553.
    6. Jagtap, S. S. & Jones, J. W. & Hildebrand, P. & Letson, D. & O'Brien, J. J. & Podesta, G. & Zierden, D. & Zazueta, F., 2002. "Responding to stakeholder's demands for climate information: from research to applications in Florida," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 74(3), pages 415-430, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Filippi, Patrick & Whelan, Brett M. & Vervoort, R. Willem & Bishop, Thomas F.A., 2020. "Mid-season empirical cotton yield forecasts at fine resolutions using large yield mapping datasets and diverse spatial covariates," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    2. Zhang, Yuxi & Walker, Jeffrey P. & Pauwels, Valentijn R.N., 2022. "Assimilation of wheat and soil states for improved yield prediction: The APSIM-EnKF framework," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).
    3. Singh, Kuntal & McClean, Colin J. & Büker, Patrick & Hartley, Sue E. & Hill, Jane K., 2017. "Mapping regional risks from climate change for rainfed rice cultivation in India," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 76-84.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Akkaya, Yıldız & Bitter, Lea & Brand, Claus & Fonseca, Luís, 2024. "A statistical approach to identifying ECB monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2994, European Central Bank.
    2. Federica Bandini & Enrico Supino, 2015. "Imprese sociali operanti in ambito sanitario: un?indagine esplorativa sui requisiti di aziendalit?," MECOSAN, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2015(93), pages 115-136.
    3. Cabrera, Victor E. & Letson, David & Podesta, Guillermo, 2007. "The value of climate information when farm programs matter," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 93(1-3), pages 25-42, March.
    4. Joanna Olbryś & Elżbieta Majewska, 2020. "Assessing Commonality in Liquidity with Principal Component Analysis: The Case of the Warsaw Stock Exchange," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-13, December.
    5. Hansen, James W., 2002. "Realizing the potential benefits of climate prediction to agriculture: issues, approaches, challenges," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 74(3), pages 309-330, December.
    6. Lončarski, Igor & Vidovič, Luka, 2019. "Sorting out the financials: Making economic sense out of statistical factors," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 110-118.
    7. Ahmed, Ali M. & Salas, Osvaldo, 2008. "In the back of your mind: Subliminal influences of religious concepts on prosocial behavior," Working Papers in Economics 331, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    8. World Bank, 2010. "Improving Water Management in Rainfed Agriculture : Issues and Options in Water-Constrained Production Systems," World Bank Publications - Reports 13028, The World Bank Group.
    9. Giuseppe D'Onza & Alessandra Rigolini & Francesco Brotini, 2016. "Esiste una strategia di Internal Auditing che crea valore? Un?analisi empirica del contesto italiano," MANAGEMENT CONTROL, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2016(1), pages 125-148.
    10. Juan Carlos Chávez & Felipe J. Fonseca & Manuel Gómez-Zaldívar, 2017. "Resoluciones de disputas comerciales y desempeño económico regional en México. (Commercial Disputes Resolution and Regional Economic Performance in Mexico)," Ensayos Revista de Economia, Universidad Autonoma de Nuevo Leon, Facultad de Economia, vol. 0(1), pages 79-93, May.
    11. Chen, Ray-Bing & Chen, Ying & Härdle, Wolfgang K., 2014. "TVICA—Time varying independent component analysis and its application to financial data," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 95-109.
    12. Bonhomme, Stphane & Robin, Jean-Marc, 2009. "Consistent noisy independent component analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 149(1), pages 12-25, April.
    13. Yan Yu Chen & Chun-Cheih Chao & Fu-Chen Liu & Po-Chen Hsu & Hsueh-Fen Chen & Shih-Chi Peng & Yung-Jen Chuang & Chung-Yu Lan & Wen-Ping Hsieh & David Shan Hill Wong, 2013. "Dynamic Transcript Profiling of Candida albicans Infection in Zebrafish: A Pathogen-Host Interaction Study," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(9), pages 1-16, September.
    14. Plat, Richard, 2009. "Stochastic portfolio specific mortality and the quantification of mortality basis risk," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 123-132, August.
    15. Kondylis, Athanassios & Whittaker, Joe, 2008. "Spectral preconditioning of Krylov spaces: Combining PLS and PC regression," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(5), pages 2588-2603, January.
    16. Fernando Castelló-Sirvent & Pablo Pinazo-Dallenbach, 2021. "Corruption Shock in Mexico: fsQCA Analysis of Entrepreneurial Intention in University Students," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(14), pages 1-31, July.
    17. Simplice A. Asongu & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2019. "Governance, capital flight and industrialisation in Africa," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 8(1), pages 1-22, December.
    18. Matkovskyy, Roman, 2013. "To the Problem of Financial Safety Estimation: the Index of Financial Safety of Turkey," MPRA Paper 47673, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. M. J. Aziakpono & S. Kleimeier & H. Sander, 2012. "Banking market integration in the SADC countries: evidence from interest rate analyses," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(29), pages 3857-3876, October.
    20. Jha, Raghbendra & Murthy, K. V. Bhanu, 2003. "An inverse global environmental Kuznets curve," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 352-368, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:143:y:2016:i:c:p:38-48. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/agsy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.